Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 182312
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
712 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 614 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
USHERING IN COLD DRY AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM, CLOUDS DECREASE, AND TEMPERATURES DROP
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN AFFECT FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AND A FROST ADVISORY IS IN
AFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EVENING WORDING TO COVER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE/PUSH SEWD THROUGH CWA...IN WAKE OF POTENT
TROF AXIS /CURRENTLY WRN LK ERIE TO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRIVING
RAPIDLY THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AND
PHASING TO NEUTRAL AXIS LONGWAVE TROF CENTERED ACROSS QUEBEC/EAST
OF JAMES BAY. RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD ROTATION AIDED BY LIFTOUT OF
POST TROPICAL GONZALO THROUGH NORTHERN ATL. NEXT ISSUE REVOLVES
AROUND TEMPERATURES/FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. RAPID CLEARING NOTED
THROUGHOUT UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
80-100M/12 HR HEIGHT RISE CENTROID OVER NERN MN TO INTENSIFYING TO
120-140M RISES OVR FAR SRN IN BY 09 UTC. WHILE LESSER RISES FOR
CWA...INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND LESSENING OF LAKE INFLUENCE PER LIGHTENING/BACKING
FLOW WITH THERMAL LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS BECOMING MODEST/AT BEST
LOWER TEENS BY 03 UTC SUSPECT NAM CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS NWRN/WRN
CWA A BIT PESSIMISTIC...WITH COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM HIGH END MVFR TO
LIKELY BECOMES INCREASINGLY RIDDLED WITH HOLES AND EVENTUAL
SCATTERING OUT IN THIS AREA BY DAYBREAK. A MORE EASILY ATTAINABLE
CLEARING LIKELY REMAINDER OF CWA OUTSIDE OF LAKE INFLUENCE AND
DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM INTERIOR LOWER MICHIGAN. PRESENCE OF
925MB THERMAL TROF /ON ORDER OF M2-M4C/ THROUGH EASTERN CWA
SUGGESTS LOWEST TEMPS HERE...AND HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN LOWEST OF MOS
TEMPS. DECENT INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL RETURN FLOW BY AFTERNOON
SUGGESTS DIURNAL PLUS RISES ATTAINABLE WITH MINOR GRADIENT
MODIFICATION PER NEWD THERMAL TROF LIFTOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONE MORE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH IN
NW FLOW WAVE TRAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO
LOOK DECENT GIVEN AMPLIFYING 60-80 METER HEIGHT FALL CENTROID
TRACK SE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MOISTURE RETURN HOWEVER REMAINS
LESS IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY MORE FOCUSED/CONVERGENT OVER OR JUST
EAST OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED MORE BROADBRUSH
LOW-MID CHANCE POPS (HIGHEST EAST) DURING THIS TIME. RENEWED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN VEERED POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME
MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN MID-LATE WEEK IN TANDEM
WITH SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING
TEMPS BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUD DECK MOVG INTO NE IL/SRN MI EARLY THIS
EVE... THOUGH BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU PERSISTING OVER ERN
LAKE MICHIGAN. ARW BUFR SOUNDINGS LOOK MORE IN LINE WITH THE
CLEARING TRENDS AND PREFERRED OVER NAM/HRRR/LOCAL WRF WHICH LEAVE LOW
LEVELS SATURATED OVER OUR AREA MUCH LONGER. THUS... CONTD PREVIOUS
FCST OF LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RIDGE
OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO INDIANA TONIGHT ALLOWING NW WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE SE AND ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ005>009-
     016>018-024>027-032>034.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020-022-023.

MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ078>081.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ077.

OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


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