Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 132058
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
358 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

A clipper system will bring light to moderate snow to the area
into early tonight, with the best chances for accumulations north
of US 30 and east of US 131. South of highway 30, a rain and snow
mix is expected with snow accumulations of an inch or less.
Otherwise, expect light lake effect snow tonight into Thursday.
Lows tonight will drop into the single digits and teens. It will
be colder Thursday, with highs only reaching into the upper teens
and 20s. Additional light rain and snow is expected this weekend
with another system that will move through.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

Another in a series of clipper type of systems will race across
the area tonight. The surface low should track near the
Michigan/Indiana border. The best chance for accumulating snow is
north of the low track. South of this area over most of northern
Indiana and northwest Ohio, have trended snow amounts down where
very dry air entrainment, max upward velocity outside of the
dendritic zone and warmer boundary level temperatures may greatly
limit snowfall. Gut feeling is that it will be hard to get more
than an inch of snow accumulation southwest of a Laporte to Warsaw
to Lima line. The front will race across the area this evening,
with sustained winds briefly around 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
Have decided not to issue a wind advisory due to the short nature
of this event; which could best be handled in a Special Weather
Statement. Otherwise, the system will race out of the area early
tonight, with lake effect snow showers developing over the far
west part of the area. Snowfall amounts over far west Laporte
county should be generally up to 2 inches.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

One more fast moving system should bring some light snow
accumulations to the northern portion of the area Thursday night
and Friday. Snowfall amounts should generally be under 2 inches.
After this system passes, milder weather will follow with high
temperatures rising well above freezing as the upper level flow
becomes more high zonal. Weak systems may bring a light mix of
precipitation early next week, but heavy snow is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

Only minor changes for the 18Z update. A few flurries currently
crossing the area but main impacts will be along/behind cold front
this evening. Did adjust timing slightly based on latest obs and
hi-res forecast soundings. MVFR expected and brief period of fuel
alternate ceilings possible this evening. At KSBN, heavier
snowfall rates could lead to a period of IFR visibility
restriction. Upstream obs also indicate a brief period of very
gusty winds immediately behind the front. Strong dry air advection
will bring a return to VFR by late tonight.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for MIZ080-
     081.

OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for OHZ002.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD/Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...AGD


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