Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 191733
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
133 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Scattered showers and storms are expected to continue this
afternoon along a slowly northward moving warm front. Cool
temperatures today will drop slightly into the 50s tonight. For
the weekend, rain and possibly some thunder returns for the
weekend with a low pressure system approaching from the west. The
best chance for rain will be Saturday afternoon into the overnight
hours as a cold front pushes through. Expect highs in the 70s
both weekend days.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 501 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

A strong cold front had moved south across the area with much cooler
air spreading over the Upper Great region early this morning.
Temperatures early this morning ranged from 80 degrees south of
the front at St Louis to the upper 20s over northern Wisconsin.
The front had become stationary and will begin to move back north
as a warm front today. Elevated storms are possible later today
into tonight over far southern areas as the front begins to move
north and as an upstream impulse moves east. Temperatures will be
much cooler today than yesterday with a cool northeast to east
wind north of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 501 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

An amplifying upstream ridge will cause a broad upper level trof to
develop and deepen over central North America through the middle
of next week. In the interim, There will be a couple of rounds of
precipitation as short wave trofs or disturbances move through the
long wave pattern. The initial system will be able to tap some
gulf moisture and bring the potential for severe weather Saturday
and Saturday night. Surface based instability may top 2000 J/Kg by
late Saturday afternoon over portions of northern Indiana. The
instability combined with marginal low level shear will favor the
chance for severe storms. Rainfall amounts are expected to range
from around an inch to an inch and a half by Monday. Another round
of rain is expected during the middle of the upcoming week.
Chilly air behind the next system will cause high temperatures to
struggle to reach 60 Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

A front is draped across the central Indiana region today with a
disturbance approaching from the west this afternoon bringing in
renewed moisture. The best chance for storms will be closer to the
front allowing FWA to have a greater chance than SBN, but have not
included this as a result of a lack of confidence in placement and
low confidence that they occur at all. The best chance for showers
will be before 2z tonight and then another chance for showers and
possible storms appears possible around midday Saturday.
Conditions are expected to remain in MVFR for the bulk of the
period, but could reach into IFR especially in any heavier showers
or storms.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roller
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Roller


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