000
FXUS63 KIWX 070929
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
429 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL WILL MAKE A WELCOME APPEARANCE TO THE REGION
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S TODAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FARTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH
WELL INTO THE 40S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH ON
LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA INTO
SATURDAY. BRIEFLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS IN NEAR/SHORT TERM PD. SVRL SITES ACRS NERN QUARTER
CWA AT 09 UTC DROPPING INTO SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECOUPLED FLOW IN
NEWD RETREATING SFC RIDGELINE. STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION TRANSPOSED
ONTO EXISTING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DEEPER SNOWPACK ACRS NRN TIER
CWA SHOULD COUNTER TEMP RECOVERY AND HAVE AFFORDED TIGHTENING OF
GRADIENT ACRS SRN CWA WITHIN PROXIMAL EDGE OF MORE SHALLOW SNOW
COVER...THOUGH STILL MAINTAIN OPTIMISTIC FLAVOR OF PAST FCSTS IN
COMP UPSTREAM SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES DEPRESS HEIGHTS ACRS
NRN GRTLKS THROUGH 12 UTC SAT WITH MORE DYNAMIC SRN STREAM DIG OF
INTMTN/AZ/NM ENERGIES ACROSS WRN PLAINS INTO SONORA. AS
SUCH...SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES WITH NRN CIRCULATION WEAKENING WITH
TIME. LAGGARD MOISTURE STREAM WITH WEAK UVM IN ANAFRONTAL SCHEME
MIGHT SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIP LATE TONIGHT IN NWRN CWA AS ZONE OF
HEIGHTENED MID LVL DEFORMATION SAGS SEWD INTO REGN. PTYPE A CONCERN
SHOULD PRECIP FALL EARLIER WITH PSBL MELT IN SFC-2KFT WARM TW LYR
AND SFC TEMPS NEAR FZG. HOWEVER EXPECT EVAPORATION IN DRY SUBCLOUD
REGN /WITH LEADING EDGE LLVL CPDS GTE 50MB/ AND AFOREMENTIONED
ARRIVAL OF MORE SIG MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE TO STAVE OFF PRECIP
CHCS UNTIL AFTER 06 UTC/THERMAL COLLAPSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG IT...EACH
GENERALLY MSTR STARVED BUT JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A
CHC OF SOME LGT SNOW. POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH
WAVE WILL RAISE HAVOC WITH POP CHANCES. INITIALLY WAS INCLINED TO
DROP LIKELY POPS IN FAR NW AREA BUT 3Z SREF AND LOCAL WRF HAS SHOWED
SOME TRENDS IN BRINGING QPF UP SLIGHTLY. ONLY CHANGE TO POPS WAS TO
SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE STATUS QUO INTO MID DAY
WITH A DECREASING TREND BY LATER AFTERNOON. QPF STILL PUSHING MAYBE
0.05 INCHES WHICH WOULD YIELD AT BEST A HALF INCH OR SO...ASSUMING
THAT MUCH LIQUID FALLS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING
AND THEN REMAIN STEADY OR SLOW FALL AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH.
COLDER AIR WILL THEN SETTLE IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND HIGHS MID 30S TO NEAR 40 (BOTH
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO) AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF A LOW OVER NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST.
MODELS AGREE THIS WAVE WILL COME ON SHORE...BUT THEN DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY WITH ITS STRENGTH/SPEED AND INTERACTIONS WITH CUT OFF
LOW. GFS/GEFS MEAN SLOWLY WEAKENS THE UPPER LOW AS IT PUSHES WELL
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MOVES INTO FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY AND SIMILAR
TROUGH STRUCTURE TO THIS WEEKEND SETS UP. EC...WHICH HAS BEEN THE
STRONGEST OF THE SOLUTIONS...HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT BUT STILL A
FORMIDABLE SYSTEM AS IT TRIES TO PHASE THE TROUGH AND LOW BUT SEEMS
TO FAIL SOMEWHAT WITH MAIN ENERGY FROM THE LOW TRANSLATING INTO
FLORIDA...ONLY SLOWER (THURS INTO FRI). GEM TRACKS SFC LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND KEEPS MAIN ENERGY
SOUTH. AT LEAST THE ONE THING THAT CAN BE AGREED ON IS A RETURN TO
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS BEFORE
COLDER AIR TRIES TO MOVE BACK IN BRIEFLY. IN TERMS OF POPS...SIGNALS
AT LEAST POINT TOWARDS MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOWING CHC POPS FOR LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE AREA WITH FORECAST LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL FEATURES ARE SAMPLED IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. EC
SOLUTION WOULD YIELD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW IN SE
AREAS WITH OTHER MODELS LESSER AMOUNTS TO NOTHING. USED BLEND OF
POPS WHICH BROUGHT UP OVERALL VALUES INTO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE WHICH
IS RIGHT AROUND CLIMO VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SMALL PROB OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP. OVERALL CHCS QUITE LOW AND
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH PTYPE PRECLUDES ANY MENTION PRIOR TO 06 UTC
ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY


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