Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 271725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
125 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Issued at 127 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Rain chances will increase later this afternoon and tonight as
another system approaches from the west. An isolated thunderstorm
is also possible tonight. Dry conditions are expected from
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening before another storm
system brings increasing chances of rain for late Wednesday night
through Friday. High temperatures today will range from the lower
to mid to upper 50s across southwest lower Michigan, to the lower
to mid 60s across northwest Ohio. Lows tonight will range from
then lower 40s to around 50.


Issued at 1135 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Forecast generally on track with little more than some patchy
drizzle into early afternoon. Band of light showers was working
northeast from southern IL/IN along a warm front. HRRR shows this
area work north and fall apart with much larger area over SW
Illinois associated with the main upper low to migrate NE and
bring steady rain late this afternoon into early evening. Same
models suggest convection to the south may rob better inflow of
moisture and bring precip to an end quicker than currently
depicted. Leaving forecast alone for now, but may need to adjust
trends with afternoon forecast.

Breaks in the clouds and eventually arrival of warm sector should
yield highs near or into the 60s for SE half of so of the area.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 438 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The second upper level system to move across the area in as many
days will bring another round of showers to the area later today
through tonight. Some mainly elevated instability will bring a
slight chance for storms mostly south of highway 30. Severe storms
are not expected given weak dynamics and very limited surface based
or elevated instability. Rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning
should be around a quarter of an inch or less. Mild weather will
persist with highs today and Tuesday in the 50s and 60s.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 438 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Cool air will spread across the area Tuesday night behind a cold
front as a large high pressure area builds south out of Canada.
Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights will dip into the 30s. The GFS
has moderated lows from earlier runs, with lows in the 30s. Kept
temperatures above freezing except for Hillsdale county with lows
of 32 degrees both nights. Given thermal profiles, the
precipitation at the onset of the next system appears early
Thursday to be all rain. Some model soundings are close to
freezing rain with a very large warm layer; however, feel there
will not be any weather impacts. Rain should end by the weekend
with highs climbing back to around 60 by Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

MVFR stratus expected to briefly scatter out at KFWA in the next
few hours but will likely hold at KSBN. Conditions will then
deteriorate again later tonight. Midlevel wave will pass through
the Ohio Valley. Latest hi-res guidance indicates much of the
rain and possible thunder may stay south of the terminals. Left
VCTS mention at KFWA but narrowed time window and expect any
thunder will be isolated. Regardless of precip chances this
evening, still expect return to IFR ceilings by later tonight as
slight cooler air advects south and intersects ample residual low
level moisture. Slow improvement anticipated during the day


LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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