


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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756 FXUS63 KIWX 110948 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 548 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Several chances of storms through the weekend, with isolated severe weather and locally heavy rainfall possible at times. - Greatest risk of thunderstorms will come in multiple rounds, but lower confidence in timing. Current indication suggest best chances during the afternoon and evening hours through Sunday. - Hot and humid conditions for the weekend, with highest heat indices expected in the 95 to 100 degree range for Saturday afternoon. - Brief shot of dry and less humid weather Monday, but heat is expected to return for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 A decaying MCS across northeast IL/northwest IN has sparked some renewed convective activity over past hour across NW Indiana at the leading edge of an associated MCV. Some elevated return low level theta-e advection is occurring in advance of this disturbance which is providing just enough elevated instability (MUCAPES 500-750 J/kg) for a few narrow bands of thunderstorms. A pocket of 35 knot effective shear appears to be localized to the vicinity of the MCV this morning, but limited instability magnitudes should temper the overall strength of convection this morning. Some brief heavy downpours will be the most likely thing to watch with any isolated storms this morning, and possibly some brief pea sized hail. These showers and embedded storms will likely work across the rest of the northern portions of the area this morning, but likely in a more scattered fashion as this forcing continues to outpace the better upstream elevated instability. Some diurnal upswing could occur across far northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio/south central Lower Michigan toward mid morning as this small scale wave departs. Looking ahead to this afternoon, another convectively enhanced short wave is likely to emanate out of the Corn Belt with a more impressive ongoing convective complex early this morning. Mid level steering flow would tend to favor the western/southern Great Lakes for a favored track with this potential short wave, which should approach during peak heating. However, this potential small scale wave will likely be entering a larger scale synoptic pattern that would tend to favor subtle mid level height rises across the region, so some low confidence exists with potential convective redevelopment this afternoon. The environment would be characterized by moderate instability and fairly low shear, with better shear profiles likely tied to more favored track of MCV just northwest of the local area. Any storms this afternoon would have a potential of some localized heavy rainfall and isolated stronger wind gusts of 50+ mph. Otherwise, it will be hot and humid today as reservoir of richer moisture across the Mid MS Valley spreads east, but will be tempered some with eastward extent as mid level ridging may be a bit more stubborn to hold. Greatest isolated severe threat could materialize this evening/early overnight as a more substantial synoptic wave (again likely convectively enhanced) ejects east/northeast out of the Central Plains. HREF guidance continues to suggest best instability axis sprawled from west central IL into NW Indiana this evening in advance of this feature. Greater severe potential may hang just west of local area with attendant better shear profiles, but some isolated wind/hail threat is possible this evening, particularly from northwest IN into SW Lower Michigan. Warm cloud depths in excess of 11K ft, minimal magnitudes to Corfidi vectors due to uniform deep SW flow, and PWATs over 1.5 inches could support a locally heavy rainfall/flood threat across these locations. Forecast confidence in convective evolution inherently wanes for Saturday and beyond due to the integrated uncertainty arising from the dependence of upstream convective evolution. The aforementioned wave from tonight, should be lifting across the area and eventually to the eastern Great Lakes during the day Saturday. A few focal points of thunderstorm development are possible Saturday afternoon, one along and east of I-69 where some better pre-frontal moisture convergence/pooling is possible as the lead short wave departs. Further upstream, a larger scale synoptic response is possible with low level troughing building into the western Great Lakes downstream of a larger scale upper trough across the upper Midwest. However, instability magnitudes may be more tempered across western portions of the area. The northeast quadrant of the local remains in SWODY2 Slight Risk for severe storms as shear profiles will likely be a bit more pronounced across south central Lower Michigan/far NE Indiana which should give some limited spatial overlap to best instability along and east of I-69. This threat will be dependent on timing/strength of the lead short wave Saturday. If convection is more delayed/lower coverage Saturday, heat indices could make a run near the upper 90s to 100 across the far east in proximity of the better pooled moisture. Sunday will offer another chance of storms although evolution of the larger scale upper trough Sunday could focus this threat across southeast third of the area. Decent instability is a good possibility Sunday PM ahead of the cold front, but shear profiles are likely be on the marginal side again. A break in the convective chances and less humid conditions arrive for early week, but this break appears to be short-lived as a more active northern stream pattern dampens weak upper ridging across the Great Lakes once again. This should support another period of several storm chances along with a potential of more 90s heat indices in the Tue-Thu timeframe. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 548 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Another round of convection currently over Chicago will likely impact KSBN during the next few hours as LLJ advects better moisture/instability into the area. Storms are not producing much wind but brief IFR visibilities are possible in heavy rain. Anticipate a break during the late morning and afternoon with another round possible around 00Z this evening. Confidence in coverage remains low and storms could remain to the W/NW where better convergence resides. Will therefore hold with PROB30 at KSBN. Thunderstorm chances at KFWA remain too low for any mention with VFR expected to prevail. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...AGD