Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 241924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
324 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Issued at 321 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

High pressure lingering over the Great Lakes will keep conditions
dry through Tuesday. There are chances for rain showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday and again this
weekend. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 70s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Short term remains quiet with closed upper low over SE CONUS
beginning to slowly lift northeast. Weak high pressure will still be
over our area this period but models showing substantial increase in
low level moisture tonight. This may lead to some increased
cloudiness overnight into Tuesday morning. Have increased sky cover
to at least partly cloudy but atmosphere initially very dry and
models may be a bit overly aggressive with saturation.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

A very active long term period expected with numerous strong waves
expected to cross the region and a wavy front providing low level
focus. As previously noted eastern closed low aiding in slowing down
arrival of first and successive systems and have followed that trend
for latest forecast. Sharp long wave trough will pull abundant Gulf
moisture northward and should see pwats increase substantially.
Another deep and sharp trough expected this weekend. Timing and
strength of waves remain uncertain given amplitude of flow so
followed inherited blends as best as possible with collaboration
but this yields rather high pops for much of the long term period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Quiet weather will dominate the short term period, with high
pressure lingering overhead. The only concern is later tonight as
return flow brings increasing moisture into the TAF sites. Model
guidance suggests MVFR and even IFR ceilings developing after 6-7Z.
I think IFR is overdone, so stuck with a solid BKN MVFR deck
developing around that time frame and lingering through tomorrow at
both TAF Sites. FWA may see an improvement during the early
afternoon hours tomorrow, but expect SBN to stay around the BKN025




SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley

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