Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290556
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
156 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL BECOME WINDY AND HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE 40S.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

QUIET WX EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA...LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL TEMPERATURE
DROP OVERNIGHT. NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...HOWEVER LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S STILL ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PHASING NRN STREAM VORT MAXES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC
REFLECTION AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERSPREADING THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ANTICIPATING ALL RAIN WITH FROPA. WET BULB TEMPS THE LOWEST 3KFT
LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE BELOW FREEZING DURING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER SFC TEMPS NEAR 40F AND 5KFT WARM LAYER
AROUND +5C SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROZEN P-TYPES. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
POPS SUNDAY OR TEMPS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SURE BUT STEADY HGT RISES ACRS THE ERN US XPCD THIS PD AS CONUS FLW
ALOFT FLATTENS W/CONTD D7 MEANS SHOWING TROUGHING DVLPG THROUGH THE
WRN US.

HWVR TEMPERMENTAL NRN STREAM FLW ALG THE US/CANADA BORDER QUITE
FICKLE AS SERIES OF SW TROUGHS GENERALLY AMPLIFY EWD EVERY FEW DAYS.
FIRST SYS OF NOTE IN THE SHRT TERM SUN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WEAKER...MSTR STARVED SYS LT MON NIGHT AND GENERALLY DISCOUNTED.
ANOTHER SYS FOLLOWS AGAIN ON LT WED INTO FRI AS FNTL BNDRY STALLS
W-E ACRS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. MODELS MUCH MORE ADAMANT ON LL MSTR
RTN/ENTRAINMENT DURING THIS TIME PD YET HELD CLOSE TO PRIOR POPS
WHERE NEEDED. DO NOT XPC A WASHOUT BUT LTR PDS DO LOOK UNSETTLED.

TEMPS BY AND LARGE MODERATING TWD NORMAL TUE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARILY VFR MET CONDS THROUGH THE PD. HOWEVER...HIGH DETAIL WITH
REGARD TO STRENGTHENING SFC WIND FIELD THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD
FRONTAL SYSTEM. BRIEF PD OF SHRA POTNLY FOLLOWED WITH HIGH END
MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH VEERING/INCREASINGLY MIXED AND LESS GUSTY
WINDS TOWARD END OF FCST PD. WHILE EVENING 2KFT WRLY FLOW WILL BE
STRONG...IT APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED/COINCIDENT WITH SFC
WIND SHIFT TO PRECLUDE LLWS MENTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


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