Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 081922
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
322 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD ASIDE FROM ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SFC TROF/COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE FCST AREA AS
OF 19Z. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SYNOPTICALLY...LARGE SCALE TROF SETTLING IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE NOTED ON W/V
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN/WRN MICHIGAN. AS THIS KICKS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS ERN WI INTO LWR MI. HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...HOWEVER WARM LAYER NOTED BETWEEN 500-600 MB SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN NATURE...ESPECIALLY AS SUBSIDENT DRY
AIR MASS PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. KEPT A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE
LARGE SCALE TROF. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST
DRY GIVEN DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD. TROF OVER CANADA FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND DIG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

WHILE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY ORGANIZED TRIGGERING EVIDENT
IN THE FORECAST MODELS. HOWEVER WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE
NORTHERN RIDGE AXIS IS A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN FOR MCC/MCS
DEVELOPMENT AND WOULD EXPECT THAT WITH WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REMNANT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TSRA/SHRA OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO START TRYING TO
TIME THE CONVECTION...SO HAVE OPTED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW PREVIOUS
FORECAST POP/WX/QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PD. SFC TROF AXIS
SWINGING EAST THRU NORTHEAST IN THIS AFTN AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
NOTED ON W/V IMAGERY ACROSS LK MI PUSHES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE PRECLUDES TAF MENTION.
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF GREAT LAKES UPPER TROF W/ RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE COULD BRING AN MVFR CIG/VISBY TO TERMINALS AFTER
10Z...BUT KEPT FORECAST VFR FOR NOW.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...NG


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