Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 270011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
811 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

Issued at 735 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

A period of showers and thunderstorms is expected mainly this
evening across the area along and north of a warm front and area
of low pressure area tracking east. The threat of severe weather
should be confined to west central Indiana this evening, but
locally heavy rainfall will be possible south of Route 30.
Precipitation should exit by Saturday morning with warm conditions
in store Saturday as highs reach the mid to upper 70s. A cold
front will move through by Sunday bringing another round of
showers and storms followed by cooler and less humid conditions
into Memorial Day.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

No changes to Flash Flood headlines as convection evolution
underway upstream. Hi res models show mcv working east and warm
front slowly working north to set the stage for at least a period
of showers and storms across much of the area. SWODY1 also
upgraded SW sections to slight risk and TOR watch recently issued
in far SW areas given strong localized shear potential with the
MCV. Greater threat may be damaging winds and hail but will need
to watch discrete cells as well and bowing segments. Pops have
been increased and expanded through the evening with faster
departure overnight.

Rain chances should stay away for the day Saturday with an
increasingly unstable environment working north as temperatures
soar well into the 70s and maybe near 80 in a few spots.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

No major changes with focus on short term forecast. An unstable
airmass should reside across parts of the area Sat ngt into early
Sunday as a cold front sweeps through. Chance to likely pops
warranted in the period followed by cooler and less humid

Upper low will settle across the Great Lakes and linger through at
least mid week. Series of impulses will bring sporadic chances for
showers. Timing will be tricky so rode with blend of models for
the time being. Airmass will not be overly cold with near to
slightly below normal temps in store.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

Pronounced MCV tracking across northwest Indiana and an associated
area of rain/isolated thunderstorms will affect terminals through
around 03Z. Best chance of thunder after 00Z will be at KFWA, but
threat of thunder be short-lived. Weak easterly flow north of sfc
reflection should tend to keep low level moisture trapped until
better mixing Saturday morning, so have not deviated substantially
from previous forecast with inclusion of IFR/lower end MVFR
conditions through early Saturday morning before bases mix out to
VFR levels. Weak flow to continue into Saturday as broad sfc high
pressure settles across the region.


IN...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for INZ018-026-027-

OH...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OHZ015-024.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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