Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 182239

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
637 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Issued at 637 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A cold front will continue southeast this evening with a few showers
associated with it. Winds behind the front will calm down and shift
to the northwest allowing for overnight temperatures to drop down
into the lower 50s. On Wednesday temperatures will reach into the
70s out in front of the next wide spread rain event Wednesday night
into Thursday.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Frontal boundary was located across from NE Illinois into SW Lower
Michigan. Ahead of the front extensive cloud cover was in place with
plenty of moisture, at least by mid October standards. Widely
scattered showers were struggling to develop ahead of the front but
may increase in coverage and intensity over the next several hours
as weak disturbance moves along the front. Have kept the trend of
increasing chances further southeast but held well shy of likely
given lack of strong forcing and dynamics. Temperatures have
struggled somewhat with the cloud cover with locations in the SE
likely to reach around 80 degrees towards 00Z at best. Lows tonight
will drop into the 50s as cooler air begins to filter in. Cooler,
but still above normal temperatures expected Wednesday with highs in
the middle 60s to lower 70s as morning sunshine allows for a nice
recovery. This will be short lived as clouds begin to filter back in
during the afternoon hours in advance of the next system to start
off the long term period.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Longwave trough will continue to deepen and dig into the Great Lakes
into Thursday with low pressure on schedule to develop and move
across the Ohio Valley. Models have generally come together on large
shield of rain impacting at least the southeast third to possibly
half of the forecast area Weds ngt into Thurs with a rapid decrease
in coverage to the northwest. Signs point towards a nice deformation
zone setting up somewhere along/east of I-69 that could result in
upwards of an inch or more of rainfall by Thursday night.
Overall QPF amounts remain somewhat subdued until we get closer to
the event with potential for this heavier rainfall to reside just
east of the area. Much colder air will filter in behind the system
with highs in the low to mid 50s both Friday and Saturday. NW flow
off Lake Michigan and warm waters may result in increased lake
effect cloud cover and possibly some rain showers.

Trough will remain progressive with building heights late in the
weekend into next week. However, overall flow of warmer air will
remain trapped south with more seasonable readings in the middle to
upper 50s across the region. Secondary trough may bring a chance for
showers Tuesday with low pops held in grids for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Cold front in association with sw disturbance driving through QB
will continue sewd near term as weak sfc ridging builds eastward out
of the central plains. Few low topped shra attempting to develop
along the front yet poor forcing/moisture holding things in check.
Regardless fairly vigorous low level drying to spread southward post
frontal as denoted in sat imagery. Thus VFR conditions expected
through the remainder of the period.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-



LONG TERM...Fisher

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