Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 051057
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
657 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA AND OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY TO OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
SUMMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME
TO AN END ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WIDESPREAD BR/HZ ACROSS NRN INDIANA SHOULD BURN OFF/MIX OUT BY LATE
MORNING... OTRWS VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS PERSIST OVER THE AREA. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BR ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS LIGHT SFC
FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY RESULTING IN WK MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA... BUT ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER GRADIENT WIND
FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT SO DON`T PLAN TO INTRODUCE BR TO TAFS ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


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