Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 240732
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
332 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND ALLOW WARMER
AIR TO RETURN TO THE AREA TODAY. AFTER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE
MID 30S EAST TO THE MID 40S WEST WITH PATCHY FROST EAST...
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN WARMER
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
MONDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA. MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

A VERY SHALLOW RADIATION INVERSION HAD FORMED OVER SOME OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S AT SOME OF THE LOCALLY COLDER SPOTS BY 3 AM EDT.
KEPT PATCHY FROST EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. IT STILL APPEARS THE
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS A LITTLE TOO DRY FOR
RADIATION FOG/GROUND FOG...SO HAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF GRIDS/FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY.  NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHEAST UNDER THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...SO
EXPECT SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAT THIS PAST NIGHT. KEPT TONIGHT DRY AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGE WILL STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD STILL LOOKS ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES AND A
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONT LOOKS TO
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
LEADING TO DEEP MIXING. TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH
80...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. QUESTION WILL BE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. FOR NOW CONTINUED TO SIDE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
WARMER GUIDANCE BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS MIXING WOULD SUGGEST GIVEN
CLOUD CONCERNS. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY
SAGS TOWARD THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG FRONT. MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB
INTO UPPER 50S IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-
35 KNOTS SO STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WITH PEAK HEATING. SPC NOW HAS
THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK AND THIS IS REASONABLE. BOUNDARY SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS LINGER IT ACROSS THE SOUTH
TUESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON TIMING COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS
TUESDAY IN OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LEFT TSRA MENTION IN
FOR TUESDAY BUT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION DISPLACES FRONT.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS SFC FRONT BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW AND DEVELOPING PCPN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS NOW LOOK
TO STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF 50S WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DISPARITY STARTS TO INCREASE AFTER THIS SYSTEM WITH WHERE
FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HOW FAST PCPN RETURNS TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. KEPT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING SATURDAY AND PROBABLY SUNDAY AS WELL WITH ANOTHER WAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY. IT STILL APPEARS THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING IS A LITTLE TOO DRY FOR RADIATION FOG/GROUND FOG...SO
HAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF TAFS. NAM12 BUFIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEAST UNDER THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...SO EXPECT SOME DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD STILL REMAIN VFR.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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