Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 041716
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1216 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS NEAR 30
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...THE 30S FRIDAY...AND THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S THIS WEEKEND. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO DIG
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK AS BOUNDARY LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DENDRITIC GROWTH WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLIPPERY ROADS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT AS THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WAS
CAUSING SOME SLIPPERY SURFACES. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OBSERVED
AT THE NORTHERN INDIANA OFFICE AT 230 AM...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW.

LATER TODAY...WINDS WILL BACK AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES CAUSING THE
REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END. NEW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVER MOST AREAS
TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE
AREA TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

INITIALLY WEAK PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH HIGH BELTED CLIPPER
INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT FOR SMALL CHC LIGHT SNOW NORTHERN CWA.
WARM SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER TO ALL BUT
NEGATE ACCUM POTENTIAL...SAVE FOR LOW T/0.1 INCH POTENTIAL PRIOR TO
NOON. GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS THROUGH WEEKEND WITH INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG NORTHERN PERIPHERY MIDATL/GOMEX
RIDGE. HOWEVER TRANSITION TO SIG COLDER TEMPS DYS5-8 AS PRESENT
STRONG EPAC SYSTEM OBLITERATES DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND PHASES WITH
POLAR VORTEX BY TUE. SIG STRONGER/LOWER TRACKED CLIPPER FOR MIX RASN
SUN NIGHT/ERLY MON TIMEFRAME. THERMAL COLLAPSE TO ENSURE TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW LATER MON. MID TEENS/LK 8H DIFFERENTIALS TUE POSSIBLY TO
UPPER TEENS TUE NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE HELD WELL UPSTREAM TO
ENSURE LAKE RESPONSE AND NUDGE HIGHER OVER BLEND TUE/TUE NIGHT
BEFORE BACKING FLOW/LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AID IN DWINDLED LES
INTO DY7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MVFR STRATOCU DECK AND SCT FLURRIES WITHIN LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY LATE AFTN WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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