Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 162259

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
700 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Dry weather is expected to continue tonight into Sunday morning. A
weak cool front will approach the area Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening resulting in a chance of showers and thunderstorms. This
front will stall across the region Monday and Tuesday resulting in a
continued chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. High
temperatures on Sunday will reach into the low to mid 80s before
cooling slightly into the upper 70s to lower 80s for Monday and


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

A trough over the Northern Rockies will continue on a northeast
track into south-central Canada allowing a trailing shortwave to be
able to move through sparking off a few light, diurnal showers
across the region this afternoon. However, coverage appears too
low for a mentionable pop. Expecting a quiet overnight, but clouds
will begin to move in as a slow moving cold front approaches from
the Plains. Diurnally forced and helped along by a pre-frontal
trough, but with little instability and no shear, showers and an
isolated non-severe storm appear possible to end Sunday. Sunday
will feel a little more summer-like with above normal temperatures
in the low 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

The front then stalls across the region, but little forcing and a
weaker front will yield little rainfall overnight into Monday.
Shower and thunder chances increase Monday afternoon with a little
bit more forcing and some instability, but shear is once again non-
existent. The forcing for Monday slows up while Jose is near the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast Coast so will continue the mention of showers
overnight into Tuesday especially with the coupling of the upper

A second trough rotates into Canada where a wave break occurs.
This causes a pattern change for late week where a trough develops
across the west and ridging in the east. Sensible weather, as a
result, will be warmer temperatures across the region with lesser
shower activity heading into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

VFR conditions will persist through Sun morning. Thereafter liftout
of upstream sw trough over ND into wrn ON as sfc cdfnt advances ewd
into the wrn lakes. This is likely to initiate convection with swwd
extent given substantial low level theta-e ridging and introduced
early mention at this point invof KSBN given potential mvfr/ifr
restrictions. Later timing expected invof KFWA (toward/closer to
00Z) assuming storms concentrate along the boundary as observed this
aftn through ern KS/nw MO.




LONG TERM...Roller

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