Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 210621

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
121 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

Issued at 344 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

Very wet and mild weather will continue through Wednesday morning.
Heavy rainfall will lead to flooding on rivers, streams, and low
lying areas prone to flooding. A brief shot of colder temperatures
is in store Wednesday into Thursday behind the cold front, which
will bring a light wintry mix to the area.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

Flooding event well underway in our NW counties while areas to the
southeast thus far have generally been spared. Trends in models
continue to point towards a rather NW to SE gradient between
continued/worsening flooding impacts and minor issues. Flood watch
will remain in place for the time being with confidence low on
exact evolution for SE areas.

Where the rain has been falling 2 to as much as 5 inches of rain
has already been reported. While many areas may see a brief lull
in the precip, the cold front will come sweeping through with some
of the high res models showing potential for several inches of
additional rain in the NW. Have stayed very conservative in terms
of QPF but still coming up with 1.5 to over 2 inches NW with
locally higher amounts a concern. For the SE, amounts may be too
low, but confidence in residence time of any precip over these
areas is low resulting in status quo.

Cold air will quickly undercut the warm air aloft and bring some
potential for freezing rain in NW areas late tonight into early
Weds. Low confidence in exactly how fast surface temperatures will
fall and more importantly road/object temps that have been warm
for a few days. Passing mention in grids but no accumulations
expected at this time and no headlines for the moment.
Precipitation may linger into the afternoon in SE areas as front
will be slow to push further away with main upper trough still
holding to the west of the region.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

Few changes to long term with focus on flooding threat in short

Frontal boundary will have cleared the area to the southeast, but
longwave trough will remain rooted to the west of the region,
resulting in a meandering frontal boundary through much of the

Early in the period thermal profiles get a bit dicey as we remain on
the colder side of the boundary with mixed precip possible with each
wave into Saturday with greatest concern being during the overnight
hours of Thursday night into early Friday period. With focus on
short term have not had much time to look over closely, but signal
warrant at least a continued mention of mixed precip in parts of the
area that could cause some minor travel issues.

Frontal boundary will shift further NW as stronger wave and area of
low pressure move along it and bring another shot of what should
mainly be liquid precip. System seems more progressive which should
help limit QPF amounts, however, with flooding still likely ongoing
in many areas could cause either delayed or secondary crests in some


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 737 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

Sfc cold front bisecting the cwa and the terminals at issuance time.
Front has slowed its ewd progress in response to weak sfc reflection
lifting out of srn IL. This will in turn delay overspread of a brief
period of mod-hvy rain 05-07Z there. Otherwise light to at times
moderate stratiform rainfall continues through about 10Z at KSBN and
14Z at KFWA. Expect general MVFR through the period with occasional
IFR in heavier rain showers this evening.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 111 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

Upper level trough and lagging strong mid-upper level fgen forcing
will allow for continued rain showers across terminals through the
remainder of the night before tapering from west to east in the
09Z-15Z timeframe. IFR conditions expected for a time overnight
before gradually improving to MVFR Wednesday morning. Northwest
gusts to around 20 knots possible through Wednesday morning,
before tapering. Drier low level air advecting into the area
should allow for mainly VFR conditions by mid to late afternoon


IN...Flood Watch through this afternoon for INZ007>009-017-018-

MI...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MIZ080-081.

OH...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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