Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 292333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
733 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Rain will return to the area late tonight and persist through
Thursday evening. Rainfall amounts will be around an inch for most
locations. This may cause some minor flooding in low lying areas.
Thunderstorms are also possible tomorrow...primarily from late
afternoon through the evening. There is a low chance for severe
storms south of highway 30 during this time. Rain showers continue
on Friday but dry conditions expected over the weekend. Highs on
Thursday will range from the 40s across Michigan to the low 60s
across central Indiana. Highs Friday into the weekend will generally
be in the 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Quiet weather will continue through the evening as ridge axis
downstream of potent upper low folds over our area. Decaying
convection presently over Illinois will struggle to reach our CWA
given persistent E/SE flow until after 06Z tonight and very dry air
aloft noted in 12Z KDTX and KILN soundings. Radar mosaic looks
decent but ceilings are 6-10 kft. A stray sprinkle may survive into
our NW third this evening but best chances for rain will hold off
until after 09Z when nose of southwesterly LLJ and associated theta-
e surge arrive. Clouds will obviously be on the increase overnight
but late arrival of veering winds and good warm/moist air advection
should still allow overnight lows to drop into the upper 30s to low
40s. No concern for mixed precip, even in far NE counties where lows
may touch mid 30s.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Rain and severe weather chances tomorrow are primary story for this
forecast package. Another very moist airmass is being drawn north by
this high amplitude southern stream wave. 850mb dewpoints hover
around 10C with PW values around 1.25 inches. Meanwhile, plenty of
dynamical support for UVM with coupled upper jet streaks (for a
time), diffluence aloft, and ample midlevel CVA/height falls. 295K
isentropic fields are correspondingly impressive in the AM WAA wing
with 40kts of sharp cross-isobar flow and mixing ratios climbing
above 6 g/kg. Rain virtually assured...though likely won`t be steady
through the whole day. Suspect a brief break in heavier rain in the
early afternoon...between morning WAA/theta-e surge and evening
arrival of CVA bullseye and associated surface low/convergent
boundary. Storm total QPF anticipated to be around an inch for many
locations. Some minor/nuisance flooding may be possible in typical
low-lying areas given recent wet conditions but ground should be
able to absorb this rain without significant impacts. Latest river
forecasts holding in action stage at worst.

Severe weather threat appears low. As is typically the case in these
events, low to midlevel wind/shear values are more than adequate
with 40kt LLJ but destabilization remains highly questionable.
Latest guidance continues to hold surface warm front over our
southern CWA with ample clouds/precip earlier in the day to limit
surface-based destabilization. If there is a sufficient break after
midday precip, our far southern counties may destabilize enough to
support a few strong storms in the 21-03Z period. However,
amplified/cutoff nature of parent trough suggests a slightly later
arrival of WAA precip (possibly mid-afternoon in eastern zones) that
will leave a very narrow window for sufficient diurnal heating. Hail
would be the main threat although isolated wind and tornadoes cannot
be entirely ruled out if instability axis creeps far enough north.
Certainly worth watching for our southern counties but threat does
appear low at this point.

Sporadic rain showers will continue through Friday as vort lobe and
deformation axis move overhead. Rainfall amounts during this period
will be much lighter and more scattered. Weekend looks much more
pleasant as ridge builds over the region. Not much CAA to speak of,
so high temps will hold generally in the 50s Fri-Sun, near average
for this time of year.

Wet pattern looks to continue into next week with one chance of rain
on Monday and another Wed/Thu. Still plenty of details to iron out
but looks favorable for several chances of decent rainfall. Temps
may be a touch warmer but no significant deviations from climo
expected at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

VFR conditions look to persist through the evening and most of the
overnight hours but conditions expected to begin deteriorating
toward daybreak. Latest Hires model guidance showing several waves
of pcpn with best chance for restrictions coming toward daybreak
into mid day Thursday with IFR expected. NAM 3km and RAP models
want to bring warm front north a bit faster than spectral and
other hires guidance with boundary to near the US30 corridor by
21z. This would bring warm sector and more mixed conditions into
KFWA late in the period with wind shift to south and strong tsra
chances. Trended winds a bit more southerly but holding onto more
of a model mean at this point. Morning rain and strong easterly
low level flow north of warm front could reinforce cold air and
retard northward movement.


LM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ043-




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