000
FXUS63 KIWX 100901
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
501 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA AS SEVERAL
CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MICHIGAN...FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO.
ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 50S...AND EVEN
NEAR 60 IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES. ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

ASSERTIVE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ABOVE SURFACE BASED INVERSION
CONTS THIS AM WITH WRLY 925 MB JETLET 45-50KTS PUSHING EWD THROUGH
SRN GRTLKS. SOME CONCERN THAT ONCE JETLET REACHES INTO LWR GRTLKS
DOWNTURN OF PERSISTENT WAA MAY FAIL TO FULLY SCOUR INVERSION IN
FAR NRN/NERN REACHES OF CWA UNDER DEEPER SNOWPACK AND SLIGHT
VEERING OF LLVL FLOW. WITH WARMEST REGIME SHUNTED SWD RELEGATED
LESSER DIURNAL RISES N/NE IN COMPARISON TO SRN CWA...EFFECTIVELY
TIGHTENING GRADIENT ROUGHLY ALONG ROUTE 30. RAPID EWD ADVANCE OF
PAC TROF INTO NUNAVUT SPUR OF ERN CANADA VORTEX TO AID IN RAPID
CNTL ROCKIES CYCLOGENESIS BY LATE TODAY AS POS TILT TROF AXIS
MOVES INTO INTMTN REGION. PASSAGE OF HIGH BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ONSET OF STORM INTENSIFICATION ACRS KS/SRN PLAINS TO LIKELY
ORPHAN RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MOISTURE ACRS CWA IN COL...LEADING TO
POTNL BR FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AND/OR PSBL STRATUS IN MORE
PERTURBED BLYR ACRS NERN QUARTER CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...

FOCUS FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS STATES AND SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW OVER
TEXAS WHICH WILL FILL AND SHIFT NORTHEAST. ALMOST DEAD ON SFC LOW
TRACK FOR ALL MODELS WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH EC/NAM
SLOWER AT 12Z WEDS (OVER LOUISVILLE) VS REMAINING MODELS OVER SE
OHIO. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP POTENTIAL TUESDAY AS MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A GOOD DEAL ON EVEN LIGHT PRECIP PRIOR TO 00Z WEDS.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AREAS RATHER
QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...BUT INITIAL SURGE WILL GO TO SATURATING
THE COLUMN...ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A FEW HOUR WINDOW.
MSTR/ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE IN CLOSER TO AND
MAINLY AFTER 6Z WEDS IN SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE PRETTY STRAIGHT
FORWARD PTYPE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH...BIT TRICKIER IN SOUTHERN
AREAS WITH DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME...BIT OF WARM AIR ALOFT INITIALLY
AND TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S NEAR ONSET. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION
OF SLEET IN SOUTHERN AREAS BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR 2 AT
MOST AS COLD AIR QUICKLY SWEEPS IN. NOW THAT WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT
PTYPE...QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE THE NEXT CHALLENGE. NAM12 IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE ON THE QPF (AND BIG OUTLIER) SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS BLEND
OF GFS/EC/SREF. EXPECTING A SWATH OF GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AS FGEN BAND EXPANDS WITH APPROACH AND
INTERACTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. IN THE SOUTH...WITH SLOWER
ONSET AND MIX POTENTIAL...HAVE NUDGED TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN
SOMEWHAT AND FOCUSED EMPHASIS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. LOCATIONS IN
THE SE WILL SEE MOST OF THEIR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 12 TO 18Z WEDS
TIME FRAME BUT ANY PRECIP WILL QUICKLY BE DEPARTING AS THE LOW
SHIFTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF PHASING OF ENERGY OCCURS
QUICKER AND COLD AIR ARRIVES SOONER...THEN SNOW AMOUNTS COULD NEED
TO BE INCREASED. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE
FORECASTED AMOUNTS ARE ON THE HIGHER END WANTED TO STAY SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE UNTIL ALL FEATURES ARE BETTER SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR
NETWORK AND MODELS...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR TODAY. IN GENERAL MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT
FORECAST OR 2 WITH BEST WINDOW 6Z TO 18Z WEDS BUT TOO MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN AND TOO EARLY TO GO THAT DIRECTION.

ONCE THE LOW MOVES BY...ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPS WILL OCCUR WITH MUCH
OF THE RIDE BEING BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT FRI INTO SAT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MAIN ENERGY WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIP AND TEMPS BACK TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BEFORE DROPPING ONCE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA