Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 181033

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
633 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Issued at 140 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A cold front will sweep across the region this afternoon bringing
low chances for an isolated rain shower, with mainly dry and
slightly cooler conditions expected in its wake tonight into
Wednesday morning. Chances for a widespread rain event then
increase late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as a low pressure
system lifts through the Ohio Valley. Cooler temperatures are then
expected to follow Friday into the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 408 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A low level jet has translated east and was over the forecast area
early this morning. NWS radar/VAD winds showed a velocity core of
nearly 85 mph at 3200 feet. This low level wind core will
continue to translate east allowing winds to remain gusty this
morning. Winds should diminsh by late afternoon behind the front.
Kept a mention of showers this afternoon given limited upper air
support and little if any instability. An isolated storm is
possible; but for now have kept out the mention of thunder. A
small ridge of high pressure will move over Lower Michigan tonight
as the front becomes stationary north of the Ohio River. Lows
tonight will still be much above.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 408 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The front will begin to move back north as an upper level trof
approaches the area.  A wave will develop along the front Wednesday
and spread rain across most of the area. The ECMWF has been
consistent with the deformation zone associated with this system.
Rainfall from Fort Wayne to Lima may exceed 1 inch by late Thursday.
Otherwise, conditions should be mainly dry Friday through
Monday with temperatures cooling closer to normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Cold front will cross the region this afternoon. Strong and gusty
southwest winds expected ahead of front with lingering low level
wind shear early this morning. Wind shift to northwest behind the
front. Winds will not be quite as strong near and just behind
front and should quickly diminish this evening. A brief period of
MVFR cigs possible near front per latest HIRES guidance. Satellite
and sfc obs does show a narrow corridor of lower cigs associated
with frontal boundary. A few showers possible as well but doubtful
of any vis restrictions given isolated nature and lack of strong
forcing or deep moisture.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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