Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 300505

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
105 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

Issued at 640 PM EDT SUN May 29 2016

High pressure will build in across the Great Lakes providing fair
weather through Memorial Day. Temperatures will remain above normal
with highs in the lower to middle 80s and lows in the lower to
middle 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Monday Night)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Weak cold front tied to remnant upper trough lifting through the
northern Great Lakes beginning to fire isolated/scattered convection
near the I-69 corridor as of 18z thanks to nearly 2000 j/kg of
uncapped MLCAPE. Weak overall forcing/flow (only 20 knots of
effective shear with larger scale ascent bypassing nne) should
limit storm coverage as convection along boundary exits east
through northwest Ohio later this afternoon. With this said cannot
rule out an isolated strong/severe storm (wind/hail) with any
multicell clusters given a favorable thermodynamic
profile/steepening lapse rates. Otherwise, expect any shower
activity with a separate vort max now over IA to fall apart
before reaching IN this evening.

Drier/less humid air will then filter in post-frontal overnight
leaving a comfortable/warm Memorial Day as low level ridging builds
in. There remains guidance that prints out some light QPF near
lingering instability gradient late Monday/Monday night into far
west/southwest portions of the forecast area. Opted to ignore for
now given subsident/dry profile seen in fcst soundings/xsections.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Above normal temperatures and renewed shower/storm chances will
highlight the late Tuesday through early Thursday periods as
warm/moist southwest flow returns in advance of a northern stream
shortwave trough modeled to propagate east from the Dakotas-Upper
Midwest Tuesday-Wednesday to the Great Lakes Thursday. The best
opportunity for more organized precipitation looks to be later
Wednesday into early Thursday with the primary cold frontal
passage. A transition to a cooler pattern is then expected post-
frontal Friday into next weekend as an upper trough becomes
established over the region. Smaller scale perturbations embedded
in this upper trough will support low chances for showers later
Saturday/Sunday per latest model consensus.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

VFR conditions to prevail through the period with little more than
some passing high clouds and maybe some fair weather cu Monday

Winds will be variable in direction...but should remain 10 knots
or less.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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