Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 270745
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
345 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A
WARM FRONT...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FUNNELING BACK IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
EMERGE/AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL
AREA IN DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS STRONG TROP
UNDULATION...WHICH WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTENING IN THE
900-750 MB LAYER ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ASSOCIATED ELEVATED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT AN INFLUX OF CLOUDS TO
MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. THIS NOTICEABLE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD BE A DRY ONE GIVEN NORTHWEST DISPLACEMENT OF LEAD
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON LLJ
NOSE THROUGH THE NORTHERN/WESTERN LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FILTERED SUNSHINE AND DEEPER MIXING IN GUSTY WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTN STILL ON TARGET TO YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
(15-20F ABOVE NORMAL) AS 850 MB TEMPS PUSH MID TEENS IN THERMAL
RIDGE.

THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SHOWER/ISO THUNDER CHANCES (MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
69 CORRIDOR) AS HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD AN EXPANDING
THETA-E RIDGE. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM ALONG A
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY LATER TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND A CONSOLIDATING ~110 KNOT UPPER JET NOSE INTO THE LOWER
LAKES...WITH 1.20" PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WARRANTING A POP/QPF INCREASE WESTERN HALF 06-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

BROAD/ELONGATED SFC TROUGH DOWNSTREAM POTENT SW ACRS NRN MT WILL
BECOME MUCH BTR DEFINED SHRT TERM AS WAVE AMPLIFIES SEWD INTO NRN WI
BY TUE AFTN. TRAILING CDFNT WHILE INITIALLY QUITE XPCD TO LIGHT UP
LATER TONIGHT AND SWEEP EWD QUICKLY ON TUE. PER TIGHT 00Z BASED
MODEL CONSENSUS MADE SIG TEMPORAL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX TUE OTRWS
REMAINDER OF FCST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PRIMARY HIGHLITE OF THE PD IS RTN OF MUCH COOLER WX FRI-SAT AS
SECONDARY SW DIGS THROUGH BASE OF LEAD TROUGH LT WEEK. HWVR ALL MED
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SOME DEGREE HAD BACKED WELL OFF PRIOR WWD/DEEPER
SOLUTIONS ALOFT OVR THE LAKES SUGGESTING A SHALLOWER/BRIEFER THERMAL
TROUGH LOCALLY. REGARDLESS MODERATION BACK TO AT OR ABV NORMAL SEEN
BY SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH MVFR CIGS (LOW PROBABILITY) INVOF A NEWD LIFTING
WARM FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A DIGGING PLAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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