Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 200048

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
848 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Issued at 718 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Low pressure over the southern Plains will move slowly northeast
into the upper Great Lakes this weekend causing showers and
thunderstorms at times across our area through Sunday morning,
with best chances late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night as
the cold front associated with this system approaches. High
pressure will build into the area later in the day Sunday
providing dry weather which should then continue through Monday
night. Temperatures over the next few days will be near normal
for this time of year.


Issued at 840 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Only sgfnt change made to grids this eve was to remove
thunderstorms from the fcst overnight. Sct showers and patchy
drizzle should continue behind departing wk shrtwv this eve but
ridging aloft should decrease mid level lapse rates and provide
some drying aloft this eve into early Saturday morning so tstm
chances have diminished. Shower/tstm pops ramp back up tomorrow
morning into aftn as stnry front moves north in response to low
pressure lifting ne out of the srn plains.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Minoring shortwave moving into west central Ohio amid piddling
250-500 j/kg MUCAPE to relegate lesser/coverage mention for TSRA
primarily to southeast CWA tiered by even lesser
probabilistic/slight chance mention per trends in pulse activity.
Otherwise little chance for convection overnight, initially far
south on northern periphery of richer theta-e, then to far
western/southwest CWA early morning as deep central Rockies
cyclone begins to liftout northeast into Plains. Further ramp of
pops/qpf through Saturday afternoon/night with increasing height
falls and approach of attendant frontal zone.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Slightly faster west to east end of shra/partial clearing on
Sunday per decent frontal timing agreement. Eschewed pop/sensible
weather mention again for Monday amid surface ridging into Lower
Ohio Valley. Secondary northern stream system digging in for
renewed shra/tsra chances by Tue, followed by Wed chc shra as
boundary layer stabilization anticipated amid more
occluded/stacked system, then yet another northern stream dig
about Thu night.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Wk shrtwv movg through the area this aftn responsible for shra/ts
with flight conditions lowering to mvfr/ifr. This system pulling
out to the east attm, but, e-ne flow will continue to the north of
stnry front along the OH River overnight so sfc based inversion
should lock in stratus even with mainly dry conditions. The stnry
front will lift north Saturday resulting in shra and sct tstms
Sat aftn with flight conditions remaining near ifr.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Murphy

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