Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 181920

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
320 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017

A few rain showers will remain possible this evening but mainly
across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. It will remain cloudy
overnight with lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Skies will
slowly clear on Monday with highs rebounding into the mid and
upper 40s. Another front will bring a chance for showers on Monday
with temperatures in the 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Upper low exiting the region this afternoon but several short waves
and vorticity maxima moving southeast in its wake and each
generating light showers over the region. Lake enhancement has
helped keep some light showers going in the northwest. Finally
starting to see drier air and subsidence work in behind these waves.
However...hires guidance has been rather persistent holding onto
light reflectivity and QPF in far east this evening with cyclonic
flow and low level moisture along with subtle waves. Will time out
returns on radar moving east this evening then hold onto low chance
pops through mid evening far east. Rest of area to remain dry
tonight but expect cloud cover to remain locked in with inversion
and trapped moisture. Clouds to slowly erode Sunday afternoon but
remain slower than most guidance until low level ridge and stronger
warm air advection moves in. Highs will trend back into the 40s with
some lower 50s back into the far southwest where a bit of afternoon
sun possible.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Warmer temps expected Monday with return flow but this will also
increase moisture flux across the region with rain likely. Short
wave to cross the region with best dynamics focused across the
north. Increased moisture and modest low level convergence will
produce numerous showers. Added a slight chance of thunder given
warming profiles but not overly excited about chances.

The thermal roller coaster continues this week with modest cold air
advection Tuesday as front sags southward. Cooling may be offset
some by clearing and mid March Sun Tuesday afternoon so highs could
push 50F. North to northeast low level flow will bring colder temps
south Tuesday night and Wednesday. This cold shot to be short lived
as high pressure slides from Great Lakes to the Atlantic and return
flow develops once again. Strong warm air advection takes place
Thursday night into Friday as cyclogenesis occurs with low pressure
lifting out of the Rockies. Models have various solutions with how
and where this system will track so stayed close to blended
pops/wx/temps in later periods.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Region will likely be socked in an extended period of MVFR
(possible excursions into IFR) cigs through the period as
inversion remains in place and subsidence behind the departing
system not strong enough to break up the clouds as seen upstream
back into Wisconsin and Iowa. Have went with an optimistic high
level MVFR cigs late afternoon/early eve especially at KFWA based
on some upstream ob trends, but return of darkness should allow
cigs to come back down again.

With regards to showers this afternoon, wave may bring some light
showers to KFWA and possible a few more may pop up late afternoon
if any breaks in the clouds happen to occur. No impacts at either
site warranting no more than a VCSH mention.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley

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