Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 102047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
347 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A COUPLE MORE
INCHES IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS NEAR THE
LAKE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S. ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW FLOW AND LAKE INDUCED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T`S NEAR
20C AND 300-400J/KG CAPE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. LOWERING
INVERSION, DRY AIR ADVECTION, AND BACKING WINDS SHOULD CAUSE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTG THROUGH THE DAY THU. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, IN THE 1-3" RANGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE CWA AND GENERALLY <1" FARTHER INLAND, WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR LESS IN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA ON THU. THIS SHOULD BRING
THE STORM TOTAL FOR THIS PROLONGED EVENT UP TO AROUND A FOOT IN
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

GRADIENT MIXING AND SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS SW AND NE WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED, AND IN THE 10-15
RANGE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. WK
WAA AND A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THU SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

BACKING FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO STIFFLE LES
PRODUCTION ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY LATE THU/THU NIGHT...
RETREATING NWD INTO MI. WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES TOWARD OHIO
VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY IN TEMPORARY RELAXATION IN SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER AS A STRONG 65N ORIGINATING VORTEX PLUNGES
SSEWD INTO RESPONSE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGING.
MORE ARCTIC FRONTAL FORCED SHSN INTO FRI AFTN FOLLOWED BY RETURN
OF LES. HAVE RAMPED LES POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
NEAR 20/LWR 20S DELTA T. LESS REMARKABLE MOISTURE DEPTH AND
THIN/MOSTLY SUB CLOUD DGZ TO AFFORD TO LIKELY KEEP OVERALL
QPF/ACCUMS/SLR IN CHECK...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
TARGETED ADV. COLDEST TEMPS SAT NIGHT IN HEART OF 925MB THERMAL
TROF WITH LES RESPONSE QUICKLY WANING AMID DESCENDING INVERSION
HEIGHTS/NRLY VEERING FLOW LIKELY PUSHING LES INTO NWRN IN/NERN IL.
FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW INTO MID WEEK TO EMBARQ OF THERMAL
MODERATION ALONG WITH EPISODIC LOW CHC PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SHSN ACROSS
NRN INDIANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SBN
THIS AFTN/EVE IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS INVERSION LOWERS
WHILE AT FWA PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


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