Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIWX 190805
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
405 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION AFTER
A FROSTY MORNING IN MANY SPOTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014


CLEARING CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY SOUTH WITH WINDS
DECOUPLING...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO ALREADY DROP IN TO THE LOWER 30S
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE IN/MI BORDER. EXPECT THIS DOWNWARD
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH COLDEST READINGS NE AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN IN MOST AREAS TODAY AS MODEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO ALLOW FOR WARMER HIGHS. HOWEVER...LOWERING
SUN ANGLE...LIMITED MIXING TO 900 MB OR SO AND COLD START TO THE DAY
WILL ALL HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH WARMEST READINGS SW.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAINFALL
CHANCES AS MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL AND LOWER LEVELS TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE...IF AT ALL ESPECIALLY NW. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BARELY DROP TO 30 MB. LOCAL WRF GIVES SOME GLIMMER OF HOPE
FOR A BIT OF RAINFALL BUT ONLY IN A NARROW STRIPE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. ALSO...ONLY 1 MODEL HOLDS ONTO FORMATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS SE AREAS DESPITE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE SETUP. AS A
RESULT...AND IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN ALL AREAS AND PLACED HIGHEST EMPHASIS ON 9 TO 12Z
MON TIME FRAME. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO RESIDE JUST OUTSIDE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD TO BEGIN WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. TREND OVER PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES HAS BEEN
FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WITH
LESS RESIDENCE TIME ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD
BE COINCIDENT WITH STRONGEST UPPER FORCING...GENERALLY SUPPORTED IN
THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME MONDAY PER NAM/GFS UPPER LEVEL Q-VEC PROGS.
NARROW/WEAK SCOPE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE/DURATION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
CHANCES. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO WEST-EAST POP GRADIENT ON
MONDAY...WITH BEST AFTERNOON CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST WHERE SOME VERY
WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF
SFC TROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND ONSET OF LOW LEVEL DRY/COLD ADVECTION. SOME WEAK
LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BUT DRYING MID LEVEL PROFILES AND SHALLOW/MARGINAL NATURE TO LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY SHOULD MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 60S EXTREME SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...AND WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME INSOLATION SHOULD EXIST
LATER IN THE DAY.

UPPER SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF EAST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING TO LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS FOR THE
THU-SAT PERIOD. AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH REACHING WESTERN CONUS ON
TUESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY REACH CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY WITH BULK OF
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTING CUT-OFF SOLUTION TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ANTICIPATED WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP...AND
DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODERATING LOW LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CLOUD COVER SLOWLY CONTINUING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
KSBN NOW ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF BKN STRATUS DECK. AT
KFWA...PROGRESS OF MIXING OF STRATUS HAS BEEN MORE STUBBORN
RESULTING IN NEED TO EXTEND MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER. AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN STILL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TOWARDS MORNING.

DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WITH WINDS
INCREASING SOMEWHAT AS FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING TONIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM IN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AT KSBN BUT HAVE LEFT OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ005>009-
     016>018-024>027-032>034.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR INZ003-
     004-012>015-020-022-023.

MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.