000
FXUS63 KIWX 280551
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
151 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 AND FOCUSED ALONG DISTINCT
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LINKED
TO SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN SHARPENED BY
MARINE INFLUENCE AND SEVERAL RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...AND WHILE
MAINTENANCE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. SOME SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS POTENTIALLY CONTAINING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT EDGES
EAST OVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SVR WATCH 446 HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA WITH CONVECTIVE LINE ALREADY INTO NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI AS OF 1830Z GIVEN MLCAPE EROSION WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. RESULTING
SBCAPE RESERVOIR NEAR 3000 J/KG AMID 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FAVORS ORGANIZATION AND THIS HAIL/WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO
RISK REMAINS LOW GIVEN MEAGER 0-1 KM HELICITY/SHEAR VALUES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER TO LINGER
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING UNDER
A COMPACT CLOSED LOW FCST TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES FROM CENTRAL WI.

CAA REGIME IN DEEPENING NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE/CDFNT SHOULD ENSURE DRY/MUCH COOLER WEATHER LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

SOME CONVOLUTED SUGGESTION IN SOME MED RANGE GUIDANCE OF TERTIARY
DISTURBANCES WRAPPING THROUGH THE BASE OF MID LVL THROUGH CNTRD
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES...PARTICULARLY THE OP GFS DEPICTION ON TUE/
WED. HWVR IT STANDS ALONE IN DROPPING A SW DISTURBANCE WELL SWD OF
ANY OTHER GUIDANCE. AS SUCH WILL HOLD W/DRY WX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STRONG 20-25KT NWRLY FLOW THROUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS DECK TO COVER NORTHERN IN/LOWER MI PENINSULA. ADDITIVE
LAKE MI MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS SW LWR MI
THAT COULD EFFECT KSBN AND COVER WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY
AM HOURS. MORE OPTIMISTIC AT KFWA FARTHER REMOVED FROM LAKE
ENVIRONMENT AND LET PREDOMINANT FUELING/ALTERNATE REQUIREMENTS
SUFFICE UNTIL 14 UTC. THEREAFTER...GREATER MIXING AND EXTREMELY
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL AID IN RISING CU BASES WITH RELATIVELY RAPID
CLOUD COVERAGE DECAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


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