Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 201043
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
643 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TODAY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND NORTHWEST OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE HELPED AVERT FOG DEVELOPMENT. DRIER AIR WILL TEMPORARILY
SPREAD INTO THE AREA TODAY BEFORE MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TONIGHT. THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL SUPPORT LOW LEVEL THETA E FLUX INCREASING WITH
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR STORMS TONIGHT. FAVORED THIS GENERAL MODEL BLEND
AND TRENDED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES HIGHER LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN A MORE
ELEVATED STORM NATURE TONIGHT AND LIMITED CAPES...STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE NAM/MET
AND GFS/MAV SUPPORT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE NE INTO OUR CWA THU IN RESPONSE TO
SHRTWV LIFTING SLOWLY NE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT TSTMS IN THE AREA GIVEN COMBINATION OF
DECENT LOW LEVEL FORCING AND VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
NEWD PROGRESS OF WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA MAY BE HINDERED BY
OUTFLOWS FROM TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT THU-FRI WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT
IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  BY SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD WASH
OUT AS UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MS VALLEY/WRN GRTLKS IN
RESPONSE TO TROF DIGGING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED
TSTMS AT MOST. AS WRN TROF LIFTS INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK A WKNG CDFNT EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
BRINGING A CHC OF TSTMS BY TUE ALONG WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN
TEMPS... THOUGH WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AND MUGGY AT LEAST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING EARLY THIS MORNING WAS HELPING TO KEEP
WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. LOW LEVEL THETA E CONVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. ADDED VICINITY THUNDER AT 09Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHEAST.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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