000
FXUS63 KIWX 021418
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
918 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY... ENDING
TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO. BITTER COLD WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THESE
SYSTEMS WITH HIGHS BY MONDAY 20 TO ALMOST 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN SPOTS. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

AREA OF SNOW WAS QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND DIMINISHING...AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE IN MANY AREAS. REPORTS TRICKLING IN OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
(WITH LOCAL 5 INCH AMOUNTS) OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AT THIS
POINT...ALLOWED THE MICHIGAN COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AND
WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING SEVERAL MORE COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA INTO NW OHIO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL BE
MONITORING LAKE EFFECT BAND CURRENTLY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
OVER PORTER COUNTY. NAM/LOCAL WRF SHOW THIS BAND TRYING TO MAKE A
RUN FOR LAPORTE COUNTY AND MAYBE EXTREME SW BERRIEN COUNTY LATER
THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM OBS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE BAND WON`T MOVE
MUCH BUT EVEN IF IT DOES WEB CAMS OVER IN NW INDIANA SHOWING LITTLE
OVERALL IMPACT FROM THE BAND.

IN TERMS OF HEADLINES IN SOUTHERN AREAS THAT LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT
TOWARDS THE SECOND ROUND OF SNOW POSSIBLY NEVER MAKING IT INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE HEADLINES EXPIRATIONS ALONE FOR NOW
AND EVALUATE 12Z DATA AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS TO DETERMINE IF
ADVISORIES WILL BE DROPPED MUCH EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

STRONG H85 FRONTOGENESIS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES/WK STABILITY
ABOVE... FROM THE LOWER GRTLKS TO KS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SNOW
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE FGEN FORCING AND BACK EDGE OF MAIN AREA OF
SNOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT.
SFC TROF HAS DEVELOPED OVER ERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTN. THIS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST NORTH OF
MAIN AREA OF FORCING/SNOWFALL... BUT EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMS AND
LAKE EFFECT THIS AFTN AS WINDS BECOMING NW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
BE LIGHT AS INVERSION LEVEL QUITE LOW IN SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS.
GOING WINTER WX ADVISORY STILL REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO ENDING TIMES... A LITTLE LATER ACROSS MICHIGAN
COUNTIES AND A LITTLE EARLIER ALONG THE ROUTE 24 CORRIDOR. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS NORTH AND L20S SOUTH.

ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER... LIGHT GRADIENT... AND PRBLY SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...
THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO PLUMMET AT LEAST OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA. NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES SEEM MOST VULNERABLE TO
THIS WHILE SOME LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU WILL LIKELY LINGER NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN AND OVER NW OHIO... AND CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH SRN STREAM SHRTWV MOVG INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY REMAINING OVER
SRN PORTION OF THE CWA MOST IF NOT ALL NIGHT... PRBLY LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THESE AREAS. FCST LOWS A BIT BLO ZERO OVER
INLAND MICHIGAN COUNTIES RANGING TO AROUND 5 ABOVE FAR SOUTH WITH
WIND CHILLS FCST CLOSE TO BUT JUST ABOVE -15 ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH COLD CONDITIONS
EARLY...WITH SOME MODERATION LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TEMPORARILY SHIFTS. BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUED UPSTREAM OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AT ALBERTA PROVINCE WITH A NUMBER OF SITES WHERE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE HOVERING AROUND -35F. THE SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS SUPPLY OF THIS FRESH ARCTIC AIR AND FRESH/RELATIVELY DEEP
SNOW AND ICE COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STRADDLE RECORD LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT...AND RECORD COLDEST/HIGHS TUESDAY. HAVE TEMPERATURES
NEARLY MIRRORING THESE RECORDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RECORD
LOW FOR MARCH 4TH AT FT WAYNE IS 0 AND THE RECORD COLDEST/HIGH IS
20. FOR THE REST OF THIS PACKAGE...FAVOR A GFS/CANADIAN GEM BLEND
THAT INCLUDES LIMITED MODERATION LATE THIS WEEK. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY...AND AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS RACE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM ARE MORE RESERVED
WITH THE WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND OR
ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL AREAS LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

BAND OF STRONG H85 FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING FROM SE MI TO ERN KS
MOVG SLOWLY SE ACROSS NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
BAND OF SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHSN AT THE TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING AS THIS FORCING SLIPS TO THE S-SE. IN THE MEANTIME
PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH -SN SHOULD CONT. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTN... BECOMING
VFR THIS EVE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ018-
     020-022>027-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
     INZ003>009-012>017.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ033-034.

MI...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ015-
     016-024.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ025.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


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