Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 212359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
759 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Issued at 7:57 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Lake effect clouds and scattered rain showers will persist
downwind of Lake Michigan into a portion of the overnight hours.
Most lake effect showers will begin to retreat back towards the
lake through the overnight. Outside of any cloud cover,
temperatures will fall into the 30s for overnight lows with some
patchy frost possible. Locations that remain in the clouds will
see lows in the upper 30s to around 40. Clouds will slowly break
up during the day Saturday with highs in the 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Deformation zone from low pressure moving into the NE states has
finally shifted well east of the area. North to northwest flow
over Lake Michigan has allowed lake effect clouds and scattered
rain showers to develop and now shift into SW Lower Michigan and
NW Indiana. HRRR has a decent handle on uptick in coverage and
intensity of diurnally driven pockets of brief moderate rainfall.
A few showers were even making a run at NE sections courtesy NE
flow off Lk Huron/Saginaw Bay. Lake Michigan activity will persist
into the late evening and even overnight hours but should lose
some of its coverage and intensity as inversion heights begin to
lower and diurnal impacts are felt. going no more than mid to high
chc pops to cover the main band.

On Saturday deeper moisture will begin to wane with inversion
heights continuing to lower, resulting in decreasing clouds and
lake effect impacts. Highs will be on the cooler side with
temperatures ranging from the lower 50s NE near the core of the
coldest air to the upper 50s in the SW.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Generally quiet period through mid week for the area with only
sensible weather issue being weak disturbance dropping through the
northern lakes that may bring a increase in cloud cover north of
US 6. Otherwise, main system will be mid to lake week as trough
rapidly develops across the western Great Lakes and deepens with
shower (thunderstorm?) chances increasing Weds afternoon into
Weds night. Generally went with Superblend of pops through the
period with lingering precip even into Thursday and Thursday
night as trough become negatively tilted. Temperatures will warm
towards more seasonable readings late in the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 755 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Upper level low slowly moves east with some warming of the lower
levels taking shape around morning. Expecting lake effect showers
to slowly retreat back towards the lake as winds diminish and
delta t moderates. However some showers are expected to linger
around South Bend into a portion of the night. While a few cells
have lowered CIGS and VISBYS nearby South Bend, expecting CIGS and
VISBYS to mostly remain VFR. VFR conditions also expected outside
of lake effect showers.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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