Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 261944

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
344 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

The chance for scattered showers and storms will return tomorrow
and persist through Sunday as an upper level disturbance passes
through the Great Lakes. Highs through next week will remain in
the low to mid 80s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Low level theta-e gradient currently hovering over our southern
counties with surface high pressure and drier air anchored to the
north. A stray shower or storm is possible in our far south this
evening as a weak shortwave rotates around southeast CONUS ridge.
Any convection that does manage to enter our CWA will be in a
decaying state given loss of better moisture. Did carry some slight
chances in the far south but activity is diurnally driven and should
dissipate after sunset. Brief break in precip expected during the
early overnight but chances return by Saturday morning as isentropic
ascent and theta-e advection ramp up ahead of longwave trough
entering the Northern Plains. Best chance of rain will likely be
late tomorrow afternoon with the addition of some diurnal
instability. Still...forcing is fairly broad/weak and coverage is
expected to remain scattered. A few isolated strong storms may be
possible in our south but overall severe threat is low given limited
instability. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s under mostly cloudy


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Chance of rain will continue into Sunday as trough lifts over the
northern Great Lakes. Not much of a low level reflection this far
south but could be enough subtle convergence to touch off some
scattered showers and storms. Once again, risk of severe weather is
low with marginal lapse rates and relatively low shear values. Warm
and humid conditions will then persist through much of next week as
strong ridge builds over much of the CONUS. A few periodic showers
and storms may be possible given marginally unstable conditions but
lack of focused trigger should keep coverage in check. Temperatures
will remain on the warm side of climo but nothing unusual for this
time of year.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Primarily VFR conditions expected this TAF period as high pressure
and dry air settle south. Mid and upper level clouds will increase
overnight as WAA resumes but ceilings look to remain VFR through
Saturday morning. Chance for a few scattered showers at KSBN by
Saturday morning but thunder chances appear much too low to
include in the TAF at this point. Increasing wind will prevent fog
formation tonight.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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