Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 011046
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE
50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR MONDAY...AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SERIES OF WAVES...ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SW NE/NW KS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE MAIN FEATURE
SLOWLY OPENING AND SHEARING OUT AS IT CROSSES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE FIRST WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH ILLINOIS TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. A WARM FRONT WAS NOTED AT 6Z FROM SOUTH OF DANVILLE IL TO
NORTH OF MARION AND LIMA OHIO WITH UPR 50 DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT.

A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS
EASTERN ILLINOIS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ON TAP...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE UNTIL THE SFC REFLECTION TAKES SHAPE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE TONED DOWN POPS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUE WITH
RAMP UP TO LIKELY POPS IN SE AREAS TOWARDS 00Z. ALL GUIDANCE HAS
INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL AS EXPANDED FURTHER
WEST...WARRANTING LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT NOT READY TO JUMP IN QUITE
YET. WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE THREAT...SWODY1 PUSHED MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH SOMEWHAT TO JUST AT THE EDGE OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
CONCERNS LINGER AS SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR UPWARDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS.
KEY FACTORS IN DETERMINING RISK WILL BE 1)POCKETS OF HEATING LATE AM
INTO MID AFTERNOON IN BETWEEN WAVES 2)LOCATION OF WARM FRONT
3)AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE OR QUICKLY ADVECTING IN. WILL GO WITH
MENTION OF STG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL IN HWO FOR NOW AND
LET DAY SHIFT HANDLED ANY THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY GREATLY
FROM NW TO SE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S SOUTHEAST AND STRUGGLING
THROUGH THE 50S IN THE NW.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH REGION BEING ON THE COLD AND ACTIVE
SIDE OF IT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
IN MONDAY WITH CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING ONCE AGAIN. STRONGER WAVE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUES NGT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (THUNDER?) WITH THE SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF TO
THE EAST WITH LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FAR EAST INTO FRIDAY.

FINALLY BY THE WEEKEND...THE REGION WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND RIDGING TAKES
PLACE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH MODERATION BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW CLOUDS/FOG CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH STALLED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FOG HAS
BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT AT KFWA...BUT WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY THOUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL MIXING.
KFWA SHOULD EXPERIENCE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
MIXING/IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS AOA 2K FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
MIST/DRIZZLE...A LULL IN RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ACTIVATES OLD LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY.
SOME POTENTIAL OF THUNDER AT KFWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING BUT RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION AT
THIS FORECAST DISTANCE. CIGS SHOULD DETERIORATE BACK TO IFR
TONIGHT WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


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