Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 181715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
115 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Issued at 1259 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A cold front will progress southeast late this afternoon into the
early evening with chance of showers associated with it. Winds
behind the front will calm down and shift to the northwest
allowing for overnight temperatures to drop down into the lower
50s. On Wednesday temperatures will reach into the 70s out in
front of the next wide spread rain event Wednesday night into


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 408 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A low level jet has translated east and was over the forecast area
early this morning. NWS radar/VAD winds showed a velocity core of
nearly 85 mph at 3200 feet. This low level wind core will
continue to translate east allowing winds to remain gusty this
morning. Winds should diminish by late afternoon behind the
front. Kept a mention of showers this afternoon given limited
upper air support and little if any instability. An isolated storm
is possible; but for now have kept out the mention of thunder. A
small ridge of high pressure will move over Lower Michigan tonight
as the front becomes stationary north of the Ohio River. Lows
tonight will still be much above.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 408 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The front will begin to move back north as an upper level trof
approaches the area.  A wave will develop along the front Wednesday
and spread rain across most of the area. The ECMWF has been
consistent with the deformation zone associated with this system.
Rainfall from Fort Wayne to Lima may exceed 1 inch by late Thursday.
Otherwise, conditions should be mainly dry Friday through
Monday with temperatures cooling closer to normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A cold front will pass through the area this evening leading to
MVFR ceilings. HIRES models suggest light rain showers in
association with the front. After the frontal passage winds will
shift to the northwest and flight conditions will return to VFR.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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