Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 181948
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
348 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE WINDS OFF THE LAKE WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S... WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE
60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS/ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PROVIDING FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA. DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT... THOUGH GRADIENT ACROSS AT
LEAST THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA PRBLY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. LOWS EXPECTED TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 30S. IN FAR NW PORTION OF CWA WHERE LAKE BREEZE HAS
KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TODAY AND GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD VEER TO EAST
AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... EXPECT MINS BLO FREEZING. WHILE OUR
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY/WARNING SEASON WON`T BEGIN TIL MAY 1ST...
ADDED FROST TO FCST FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NW SINCE SOME
COMMERCIAL/HOME GROWERS/GARDENERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED OUTDOOR
GROWING OPERATIONS. ONLY FCST FROST TO BE PATCHY WHERE MINS <=32F
SINCE SOME WIND AND DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FROST COVERAGE.

DRY AIRMASS WILL CONT TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY WITH H85 THERMAL
TROF MOVG EAST FROM THE LWR GRTLKS TO NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DECENT GRADIENT MIXING EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO... GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS WHICH ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM THE U50S NE TO THE U60S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
PERIOD...THE FIRST BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN THE SECOND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING
ABOUT THURSDAY. BRIEF WARMUPS WILL PRECEDE THESE SYSTEMS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN
THURSDAY. THE GFS OPERATIONAL MEX TEMPS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...ALTHOUGH HAVE TRENDED COOLER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THIS TREND WHICH MIRRORS THE LATEST
ALLBLEND TEMPS. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GREATEST LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK OF MOISTURE REACHING THE FCST AREA
FROM THE GULF...WHICH WILL SEVERELY LIMIT CAPE VALUES.  GFS/BUFKIT
CAPE VALUES ESSENTIALLY ZERO OR NEAR ZERO OVER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR SPECIFICS...MASSIVE DIURNAL RANGES CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS/MAV RISES OF
30 TO 40 REASONABLE. KEPT HIGHS OPTIMISTIC INTO THE 70S SUNDAY GIVEN
NEARLY FULL LATE APRIL SUN AND 850/925 MB TEMPS RISING TO BETWEEN
11C AND 14C. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OF UNTIL SOME TIME MONDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE COLDEST NIGHT
SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO MID TO UPPER 30S.
FROST MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO SOME AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

CDFNT MOVG ACROSS NRN INDIANA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FWA EARLY THIS
AFTN SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO NW. VFR CU DECK OVER NE INDIANA WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. VFR/CLR EXPECTED
THIS EVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE UPR GRTLKS CAUSING NW WINDS TO VEER TO EASTERLY IN THIS
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT


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