Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 210753
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
353 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Cooler and less humid air will continue to filter into the region
today. A series of disturbances will move east today and bring a
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms late this morning
into early this evening mainly north of route 6. Quiet weather
will settle in later this evening and persist into Tuesday night.
Highs today will reach the 70s with lows tonight in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Last of the humid air was departing the southeastern parts of the
forecast area. Few lake effect clouds already impacting the
lakeshore areas, announcing what will come starting late this
morning into early this evening as 2 disturbances move southeast
into the area. Water vapor loop shows a strong wave extending from
western Wisconsin into Iowa with the strongest impact across
Wisconsin. This feature will rotate rapidly into the area this
morning with associated cold pool set to give the northern areas a
glancing blow with delta t`s approaching 14 C and steepening low
level lapse rates. Hi Res models suggest widely scattered to
scattered shower/Isol thunder development possibly as early as 12z
but more likely heading towards the 15 to 18z time frame. Given
signals did extend pops somewhat further south and increase along
the border. While not the most favorable setup,Non Supercell Tornado
parameters do approach or exceed 1 over southern Lake Michigan and a
few counties inland in the 21z-00z window, suggesting at least some
threat for funnel clouds with any showers/isol storms. Something
that will need to be watched, with probably somewhat better
potential for waterspouts than anything inland. Further south,
partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail with a pleasant day
overall. Temperature wise have leaned towards cooler MAV numbers
with highs in the 70s.

Have introduced/expanded pops into the 3 to 6z window tonight as
another spoke of energy moves in behind the first and sets off
additional activity, this time more in a SE trajectory from the
lake.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Only minor changes to long term with quiet weather in store into
early Wednesday before next trough digs into the area and brings
showers and thunderstorms back. An increase in pops will likely be
warranted as we get closer to the event, but timing of the best
window still questionable this far out so have continued to keep
pops in the high chc range later Weds into Thurs. Dry conditions
arrive again by Thursday night into Saturday night before the next
wave moves into the western Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR conditions xpcd through the period. Lower bound vfr based
stratocu currently developing w/swd extent this morning as post
frontal caa wedge deepens and xpc further expansion to include the
KSBN terminal through much of the day.

Otrws secondary sw trough passage through cntrl lwr MI late this
aftn may yield some lk enhanced shra invof of KSBN this evening as
lk based delta T`s top out in the mid teens. Decent highres signals
exist to make a vcsh mention at this point by 00Z.


&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fisher
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...T


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