Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 211036

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
636 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Issued at 445 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

An upper level disturbance will allow for light rain showers to
persist this morning...with the greatest coverage along and south
of Route 24. As the system moves east and weakens later
will dry out and skies will clear from west to east...with
northwest Ohio likely not clearing out until the afternoon hours.
Temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s to lower 70s this
afternoon...with slightly cooler temperatures near Lake Michigan.
Dry weather will dominate into at least Tuesday afternoon as high
pressure drifts across the region. High temperatures will
gradually warm with some locations reaching the lower 80s by mid


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 444 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Primary focus to end pops sig earlier...with far eastern/sern cwa
drying out by early/mid afternoon. This is in line as eastward
progress of vortex /currently over srn Lake Michigan/ reaches
eastern Lake Erie/western Lake Ontario by evening while continuing
to fill. Additional signs of diminishing dynamics is strengthening
of 3 hr pressure falls along VA/NC border to 3.5mb/3 hr signifying
coastal handoff already underway. orphaned mid deck may linger
into afternoon...though gradually thin/melt amid poor mid lvl
lapse rates and increasing deep layer subsidence.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 444 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

High plains mid level ridging to overspread eastward into upper
great lakes in wake of friday night systems passage into new england
that drives significant coastal cyclogenesis. very dry /pwat on
order of 0.40 inches/ subsident airmass for moderating temperatures
to above normal/near 80 by tuesday. again as yday have held line
with respect to onset of higher pops/shra/tsra chances as initial
wave ejection from deep/expansive wrn conus cyclone likely
deflects nw-n of cwa and initial gomex feed lacking/shunted well
westward. Gradual ramp to mid level chance pops starting tue
aftn...though best chances in wed/wed night timeframe as cwa
becomes poised for additional upstream shortwave ejections in deep
swrly flow as large scale trof opens/broadens and transitions from
highly pos tilt to neg tilt axis /bc into corn belt/ by dy7.
Models hint at shallow frontal passage late thu that could provide
convective focus to linger into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Subsidence was very apparent behind an upper level system over
Indiana with generally weakening radar returns and clearing skies
from the northwest. A sprinkle is possible at Ft Wayne 12Z-13Z,
but for now, kept rain out with VFR conditions throughout both
terminal TAFS. Winds will back to the north today, and then become
light tonight.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Murphy

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