Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 160912

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
412 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Issued at 1232 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Drier and colder air will slowly invade the region overnight.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s by
daybreak. High temperatures this afternoon will only reach the
lower to middle 30s. There is a chance of light rain or light snow
late Saturday but little accumulation is expected. A stronger
system will bring warmer temperatures as well as widespread rain
to the region Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures could reach into
the 60s but rainfall may also lead to some flooding.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Much drier air was spreading across the area behind a cold front
that passed yesterday. There was still some patchy fog lingering
overnight, especially in the vicinity of remaining snowcover. This
remaining fog will lift/dissipate later today as cooler and drier
air continues to spread southeast. Deep layer subsidence will
continue to increase today, causing clearing skies this afternoon
into this evening. Lows tonight under mostly clear skies will
drop into the teens to around 20.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Concerns continue for the potential for the unfolding of a
significant hydrologic event from late Sunday into the middle of
next week. The ECMWF is slower than the GFS and favors rain
continuing through most of Wednesday. Several factors appear very
supported for an extended rainfall event that could persist for 72
hours. Precipitable water values may meet or exceed 1.4 inches
which would top the climatological values for this time of year.
NAEFS/ensemble forecasts show a wide swatch of mean precip water
values of 99%/climate max late Monday from east Texas into the
Upper Great Lakes region. WPC is supportive of of heavy rainfall
with widespread amounts exceeding 2 inches during this period.
Will continue to mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook Product
for now.

Otherwise, a weak system will bring a light wintry rain/snow mix,
but any accumulations should be light.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

MVFR VIS is hanging on at KSBN with some residual BR given moist
snowpack still in place. Drier air will continue to push in and
should see VIS increase to P6sm shortly. However...area of MVFR
stratus upstream will push south overnight and should reach KSBN
before daybreak and move into KFWA near or shortly after daybreak.
Stayed optimistic in bringing conditions up to VFR mid day but
some hires guidance holding onto MVFR CIGS until late afternoon.
Subsidence and drier air should eventually win out by tonight
with clearing skies and winds becoming light around 5 knots by





SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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