Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIWX 270540
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
140 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY FORM
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
INDIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

PERSISTENCE IS THE FORECAST TOOL OF CHOICE FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND MINIMAL THERMAL ADVECTIONS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...FOCUS WILL BE ON SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT. AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA HAS
ALLOWED FOR POCKET OF SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...ALTHOUGH MIXING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS LIKELY TO TAKE THESE
DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER. EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE ALSO
SHOULD ALLOW FOR POCKET OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS TO PERSIST
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH
HIGHER CROSSOVER TEMPS IN GENERALLY THE SAME LOCATIONS WHICH
EXPERIENCED THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING. GIVEN
ABOVE...AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSE PROFILES...SOME CONCERN
EXISTS FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. DID CONTEMPLATE ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE...BUT WILL LET EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS WITH
CONFIDENCE JUST A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME IN DELINEATING MOST FAVORED
AREAS IN TERMS OF HEADLINES. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO
UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER QUIET DAY ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE IN
COMPARISON TO TODAY BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED. A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT SHOULD BE
MODIFIED BY WEAK EASTERLY GRADIENT...AND SHOULD PROVIDE ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST PROVIDES
AN EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND A TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. AN UPPER WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GRTLKS MON INTO
TUE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP REMAINS NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO DIVERGE BEYOND MIDWEEK SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE
IN THE ONGOING FCST. AS THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
FCST AREA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR TSTMS THU INTO FRI. THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE QUICKER IN SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO NW INDIANA THU THAN
THAT OF THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP WHAT IS IN THE CURRENT FCST. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF UNTIL THE END OF FCST PERIOD
WHEN TEMPS LOWERS TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN INDIANA WITH LIGHT E-NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW. EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG WILL FORM OVER THE AREA AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOWER OVER NE INDIANA DUE
TO FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE/HURON EARLIER TODAY. THUS, CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS FCST CALLING FOR IFR AT SBN AND LIFR AT FWA BY DAYBREAK.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY 13-14Z WITH JUST CIRRUS FOR CLOUDS
TODAY/THIS EVE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.