Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 222328

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
627 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Issued at 351 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Widespread significant flooding will continue over northwest
Indiana and southwest lower Michigan with record crests expected
on several rivers. Light rain will return overnight into Friday
with a brief period of mixed precipitation is possible northeast
of a line from Coldwater, Michigan to Napoleon, Ohio late tonight.
Low temperatures in the lower to middle 30s will occur in the
evening with slowly rising temperatures overnight. Additional rain
chances will arrive Saturday into Saturday night.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Flooding concerns remain front and center for the next several
days as rivers across the area are in various states of flood and
forecasted rainfall causing lots of angst (and rightfully so)
regarding impacts on the rivers.

Somewhat drier air has overspread the area for the moment, with
the first of 2 surges of increased moisture and rain chances
arriving late tonight into Friday. Area of interest showing up
nicely on regional radars from east Kansas to NW Arkansas, moving
northeast to arrive in SW areas sometime after 6Z Fri and then
rapidly spread NE from there. Models varying to some extent on
exact precip amounts, but do seem to still agree on heaviest
remaining either in our far SE counties or possible away from the
area. NAM is most aggressive with QPF with others more subdued.
generally looking at a tenth of an inch NW to third of an inch SE
with this system, which should do little to the overall trends in

Trend continues to show slightly warmer lows and smaller area of
limited concern for freezing precip late tonight into early Friday
as temps will hover near freezing and could rise above by the time
the rain arrives. Have left a token slgt chc/chc freezing rain in
far NE with eve/overnight shift to monitor.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

The majority of Friday night will end up dry before concerns
increase for additional rainfall that could bring some impacts to
local rivers. Majority of models keep heaviest rainfall Saturday
into Sat night mainly SE of the area (ECMWF) or splitting the area
(GFS). NAM has a more concerning trend with more NW push of
precip, especially Sat afternoon into Sat night with run total QPF
ranging from 0.75 inches NW to over an inch and a half central/SE.
Depending how fast the precip arrives could be a mix of rain/snow
on northern fringe of precip late Fri ngt into Sat AM before warm
air overtakes the area. Current river forecasts go with more
subdued solutions resulting in very slow trends in all rivers vs
rapid jumps or changes. If NAM were to work out, could be more in
the way of impacts. Will update ESF to address concerns and
continue to monitor.

Frontal boundary will surge across by Sunday morning, pushing the
rain out of the area and giving a much needed period of drying as
well as above normal temperatures. Next system may begin to arrive
by mid week, but only slgt chc/chc pops warranted at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

General IFR expected this period with potential for a period of LIFR
mid period as srn plains disturbance and associated broad
precipitation plume lifts across the terminals toward daybreak.
Upstream boundary layer moistening within erly flow regime bears
watching though with potential dense fog development overnight
especially if drizzle activates within approaching warm frontal zone.


MI...Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MIZ077.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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