Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIWX 231746
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
146 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE TONIGHT
BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG WAS BECOMING RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AS CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WAS ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ENOUGH LOCATIONS
HAVE DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN NE QUARTER OR SO TO
WARRANT HOISTING DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MAY NEED TO EXPAND WITH
TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW. ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF A
PLEASANT DAY WILL BE ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE MAIN AXIS TO EXTEND FROM ONTARIO TO CENTRAL OHIO
BY 00Z FRI. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXTENDING FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA SOUTH TO IOWA AND NEBRASKA. MAJORITY OF
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THIS EAST BUT EVENTUALLY SHEAR OUT THE
WAVE AS DEEP UPR LOW OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS THE FLOW TO A HALT
AND KEEP DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AND GAVE MORE TEMPORAL DETAIL.
WAS TEMPTED TO DROP CHANCES TO SLGT CHC IN THE EVENING IN FAR WEST
BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST AT LEAST A SMALL WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIP BEING POSSIBLE. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S COURTESY OF
MODEST WAA AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTN OPENS INTO ZONAL FLW REGIME THIS PD ACRS THE CONUS WHICH
RESULTS IN A VIGOROUS MODERATION IN TEMPS ESP IN LTR PDS. TO START
POTENT JET STREAM AND ASSOCD SW DISTURBANCE DRIVING EWD INTO BC OFF
THE NEPAC WILL CREST FLAT WRN US RIDGE FRI AND DIG SEWD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WK CDFNT TO BACKDOOR
INTO THE AREA ON SUN W/MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS XPCD. HWVR LINGERING CP
AIRMASS VOID OF MSTR AND XPC NO SENSIBLE WX TO RESULT AS PARENT WAVE
TRANSLATES THROUGH ONTARIO LT FRI NIGHT/SAT AM.

OTRWS NEW TROUGHING OUT WEST AND INCREASING SWRLY FLW ALOFT LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OR RAIN LT TUE. RELIED ON A BLEND OF POP GUIDANCE WHICH
FIT BTR W/BOTH CONTINUITY AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE. SATELLITE SHOWS AREA OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM APPROACHING. THERE IS AN AREA OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CIGS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD. APPROACHING WAVE AND
WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. NOT
CONFIDENT THE LOWER CIGS WILL REACH TAF SITES GIVEN EXPECTED
FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A MOISTENING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN. TRAPPED CIGS WITH
REMANT BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO FAVORED THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME MVFR CIGS AT KSBN FOR NOW BUT LEFT KFWA VFR. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR MORE DETAIL IN
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.