Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

000
FXUS63 KIWX 132345
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
745 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms possible tonight into Thursday night. Small
  hail, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Mild through Thursday, much colder by Sunday.

- Light rain and snow showers early next week. Few if any
  weather impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Moisture will surge northeast into the forecast area and bring
showers and storms ahead of a strong cold front. Strong upper
level winds, limited instability but fairly strong low level
shear favor storms with gusty winds and small hail. The CAPE
will be tall but thin with max values up to 1000 J/Kg per GFS.
Favor better chances for locally heavy rainfall with max
precipitable water values near climate maxes of 1.25" and cell
training possible. Some upper level jet support in the right
exit regain with also enhance rainfall amounts.

Colder and fairly tranquil weather will prevail through the
weekend into early next week as an upper level low out of Canada
settles over the area. No real organized precipitation is
expected, but light lake enhanced rain and snow showers are
possible Saturday night into early Monday. Chilly MondaY, then
warming as the upper flow become more high zonal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Multiple rounds of convection are expected late tonight into
Thursday as a low pressure system crosses the region and
intersects an unseasonably warm and moist airmass. Exact timing
is still somewhat uncertain but the first round is likely in the
10-14Z window with the initial moisture surge. Instability and
forcing are not great for this round so thunderstorms may be
more isolated but held with a TEMPO mention. Better chances for
storms will be during the late morning and early afternoon as
instability builds and nocturnal convection moves into the area
from well upstream. A few strong storms may be possible but
confidence in timing is still not high. There could be more of a
gap between the two rounds than currently depicted in the TAF`s.
Even outside of storms, fuel alternate ceilings are likely at
KSBN for much of the day with IFR possible while KFWA hovers
closer to 3 kft for the day. A third round of storms is possible
Thu evening but confidence in this round is much lower and
likely just outside this forecast window anyway.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...AGD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.