Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 151041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
641 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Issued at 630 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

A cold front will bring showers to the area through late morning.
Otherwise, winds will turn northwest and become gusty with
falling afternoon temperatures. Morning highs in the mid 60`s to
near 70 will fall to the 50`s by this afternoon. A few lake effect
rain showers are possible late this afternoon and evening. Lows
tonight will be in the 40`s. Highs Monday will be in the upper
50`s and low 60`s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Potent sw trough over MN will continue ewd into wrn QB this aftn.
Deepening sfc reflection over ern WI will likewise eject rapid newd
allowing cold frontal zone currently over wrn IL to accelerate east
across the lakes/OH valley near term. However frontal scale
circulation will essentially collapse as this unfolds with sig ewd
reductions in shra extent/pops warranted especially in consideration
of unfavorable timing and notable upstream decay taking place across
IL currently.

Otherwise strong cold advection wing will sweep sewd post frontal
with morning highs giving way to falling aftn temps through the 50s.
Brief but favorable lake MI induced thermal troughing maximizes this
evening yet expected to decay rapidly thereafter with strong
subsidence aloft and potent boundary layer drying and will limit pop
mention through 06Z.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

High zonal flow develops early this period with broad ewd thermal
ridging expanding with time esp late week timed with eventual Conus
negative pna pattern development. Similar to past days will again
hedge warmer in outer periods especially dys 5-8.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

A cold front will bring (continued) showers to both terminals
through the first portion of the TAF period. While MVFR/VFR
conditions are expected to prevail, there is a chance for some IFR
ceilings/visibilities during heavier showers and also near/right
behind the front, per upstream observations (though they are quite
varied). Model guidance suggests ceilings dropping briefly
between 700-900 feet, especially at KSBN, but kept as a tempo for
now based on lower confidence. Otherwise, winds will become
northwesterly behind the front, and continue to gust up to 20-30
knots. Lake effect rain showers are possible tonight at KSBN, but
probabilities of hitting the airport are too low to include at
this point. Otherwise, expect improving conditions by this


LM...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.




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