Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 261722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS WILL DEPART EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS VERY
WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND SUFFICIENT LINGERING NEAR SFC MOISTURE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW OBS SITES REPORTING VSBYS DOWN A ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
OR LESS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THIS MORNING WHICH MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF LOWER END TYPE
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING THESE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THIN SOMEWHAT
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FOG HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND WILL INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z.

BROAD SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WILL TAKE BULK OF STRONGER FORCING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A SECONDARY WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WHICH THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS
ORIENTED ALONG THE US ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT OF LOCAL AREA. CONTINUED WARM NATURE TO 800-600
HPA LAYER SHOULD TEMPER INSTABILITY...WITH BEST AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SETTING UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES MAY BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE. WHILE CANNOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF AREA WITH WEAK SECONDARY POOLED
MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE ON THE SCENARIO THAT ENOUGH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PERSIST TO SUPPRESS PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WEAK NATURE TO FORCING TODAY AND
SUBTLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES COMMENCING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. DESPITE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...AND WITH GOOD DEAL OF INSOLATION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS TO MAKE A
RUN AT THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR TONIGHT...SOME POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR SMALLER SCALE VORT MAX
ENHANCED BY CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETTER LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
WEST OF LOCAL AREA ACROSS MID MS RVR VALLEY HOWEVER AND WILL JUST
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT WILL DEFER THIS TO NEXT SHIFT
WITH SOME QUESTIONS AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN REGARDS TO EXTENT
OF HIGH CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH MUCH MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR AS HIGH TEMPS MAKE A RUN FOR 90 DEGREES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT CLOUD COVER FROM MESOSCALE COMPLEXES UPSTREAM COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RESIDE WITH YET
ANOTHER SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SUPERBLEND GETTING SOMEWHAT CARRIED AWAY WITH LIKELY POPS IN MANY
AREAS. WHILE IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NOW THAT WE ARE BACK
OUT OF THE MUCH WETTER PATTERN...SIGNALS POINT TO MORE OF A SCT
NATURE TO CONVECTION ON FRONTS PASSING THROUGH. CREDENCE TO THIS IS
ESTABLISHED BY MAIN SFC LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...TIMING
FRONT WHICH MAY ARRIVE JUST BEFORE PEAK HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS BEING MAINLY NORTH AS WELL. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN COMING
PERIODS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LESS HUMID AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE WITH
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT CU FIELD FROM ADVANCING TO
FAR NORTH TODAY AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW/NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE STILL
TRAPPED...HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER VSBY AT KFWA
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LEWIS


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