Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 160805 CCA
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
242 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

High pressure will move across the area today providing fair weather
with temperatures slightly warmer than yesterday. A warm front will
move through the area late tonight and Friday morning, followed by
much warmer temperatures Friday afternoon. This unseasonably warm
and dry airmass will persist across our area throughout the upcoming
holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Flurries over the nrn portion of the cwa diminishing as inversion
lowers early this morning and low level wrap around moisture
exits the cwa to the se. Considerable high clouds should cont
today/tonight as wk shrtwvs move sse down backside of ern
u.s./canada longwave trof. Convergence along a wk warm front movg
into the area tonight may also cause some low clouds to form.
Overall, expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies through the short
term period. These clouds and wk mixing due to cloudiness and
light winds associated with sfc ridge passage will limit warmup to
3-6F above ydays highs despite considerably more warming aloft.
Likewise, only 5-10F diurnal temp falls tonight as waa associated
with incoming warm front strengthens and considerable cloudiness
conts.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Temps will warm into the 50s Friday as skies clear behind the warm
front and upr ridge axis moves into IN. A wk cdfnt still expected to
drop into our cwa Sat as shrtwv moves east across srn Ontario.
Gradient mixing ahead of this front Friday night and Sat should
allow for a continuation of the warming trend. Wk caa Sat ngt will
be brief as an even stronger upr ridge builds into the area ahead of
a deep trof movg across the srn Rockies and nrn Mexico Sunday. This
should result in no sgfnt change to aftn highs across our area from
the previous day, except perhaps in the nw where light gradient
should allow for a decent lake breeze.
Strengthening southerly gradient winds Monday ahead of nrn stream
shrtwv movg across south central Canada and closed low pushing
through srn TX should result in even warmer temps and prbly the
warmest day of the upcoming warm spell with highs in the upr 50s
to mid 60s.

As usual, considerable uncertainty in the fcst for days6-7 as medium
range models diverge on handling the split flow pattern. Some
potential for showers Tue and Wed associated with nrn stream shrtwvs
movg east across the grtlks with psbl interaction with closed low
advancing through the gulf states. With more cloudiness, temps will
prbly be a little cooler but still well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

WNW flow lake effect clouds in 3.5-6 kft range will persist
through at least early Thursday afternoon before sfc ridging
builds in. Dry/light winds/VFR otherwise through the TAF cycle.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...Steinwedel


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