Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 120819

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
419 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Issued at 144 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Expect cloudy skies with occasional drizzle and patches of fog
through Thursday morning. Lows will drop into the upper 40`s and
lower 50`s. Thursday will be mostly dry and cloudy, with highs in
the 60`s. Friday we`ll warm back up into the 70`s, with partly to
mostly sunny skies. Rain chances and perhaps even a few
thunderstorms will move into the northwest Friday, and for the
remainder of the forecast area Saturday and Sunday. Highs will be in
the upper 60`s and 70`s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 416 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017

A weak low pressure area was over east Ohio and was moving east
early this morning. Areas of light drizzle and patchy fog were still
quite extensive west of this system over Indiana and northwest Ohio.
Have extended the mention of patchy fog and light drizzle given the
latest obs and trends. The drizzle should end this moving as the low
moves east and as drier air spreads southwest across the area. Highs
today will be a little below normal as cool air continues to spread
over the area. Most of the clouds should linger tonight with lows
holding in the 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 416 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Temperatures will rise well above normal again ahead of the next
system that will arrive this weekend. The ongoing forecast appears
on track as the latest models continue to favor the low pressure
area moving across Wisconsin into Upper Michigan by Sunday. Very
favorable upper level support will spread over the area Sunday.
Storms with gusty winds are possible with some storms possibly
becoming marginally severe. Otherwise, very limited cold air
advection will be behind this system allowing temperatures to
quickly recover and rise well above normal again early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 144 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017

It looks as though we`ll be dealing with the lingering effects of
the exiting low pressure system through the TAF period, resulting in
continued IFR/LIFR conditions. At the surface, we have a lingering
low pressure trough and associated moisture that models suggest will
stick around for the next day or so. Subsidence aloft from the
exiting upper level wave/incoming ridge will keep moisture trapped
below-and that keeps occasional light drizzle, patchy fog/BR, and
lower ceilings in place through later Thursday morning. We`ll see
some improvement Thursday, primarily towards mid afternoon as
available moisture slowly dwindles. As drier air makes its way in at
the surface, we`ll see an improvement to MVFR by Friday evening.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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