Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 121832
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
232 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mild and dry into tonight and Wednesday.

* Wednesday night through Thursday night will feature chances for
  showers and storms.

* A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out late Thursday
  afternoon into Thursday evening, especially along and west of US-
  31 in western Indiana.

* Cooler and at times unsettled weather Friday through early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024

A compact, low amplitude, shortwave over Kansas will track east
tonight and Wednesday morning, dampening once reaching the Ohio
Valley. Weakening isentropic ascent/WAA on its northern fringe,
and lacking moisture advection, should allow quiet/mild wx to
persist into much of Wednesday.

There will be an uptick in shower/storm chances late Wednesday
through Thursday night as moisture streams northward into a west to
east oriented frontal boundary. Positioning of the boundary (over or
just north of the local area) will be key to PoPs/QPF, especially
early Thursday morning and again late Thursday afternoon-evening
when several rounds of convection will be possible. The ongoing
moist advection under a decent EML supports thunder chances during
these periods. As for severe prospects, ample effective shear and
relatively steep mid level lapse rates may support a hail threat
with any elevated convection late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. All hazards are on the table late Wednesday-Wednesday
evening if any appreciable surface based CAPE is realized.
Ongoing precip and low clouds could be significant limiting
factors for more robust convection.

The main upper level wave embedded in persistent southwest flow will
finally get absorbed into broader westerlies later Thursday night
into Friday. This will bring the associated sfc low through with
lingering rain possible. Drier air will settle in Friday
afternoon into Saturday.

Deep longwave troughing looks to engulf the Great Lakes and
Northeast this weekend into early next week with a shot of colder
air and chances for lake enhanced rain/snow showers as several mid
level impulses drop through the southern and western fringes of the
trough axis.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR conditions persist through 18Z Wednesday. It will remain,
however, a mid/upper level short wave approaches the Ohio
Valley on Wednesday, which will lead to ceilings lowering from
25000ft (where they are now) to 10000ft (Wednesday afternoon).
Winds will remain out of the southwest tonight with gusts
20 to 25 knots possible. Winds diminish to around 5 to 10 knots
early Wednesday morning between 06-09Z.

Changes are ahead but they are just beyond the length of this
TAF forecast. MVFR ceilings will likely need to be added in
subsequent TAF cycles for Wednesday night into Thursday.
Scattered showers and storms will also be possible late
Wednesday and throughout the day Thursday.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Johnson


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