Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 260528
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1228 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES
BY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 30S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AS BUILDING ERN CONUS SFC RIDGE/MID LVL
HEIGHT RISES BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH
THE REGION IN THE WAA REGIME OF AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED CONUS
PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

WESTERN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
30S STILL EXPECTED.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED EARLY ON FRIDAY...WHICH COUPLED WITH SW
FLOW/WAA...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR HIGHS. INCREASING CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED IN THE LATTER PART
OF THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NE FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST GIVEN EXPECTED INSOLATION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON COUPLED
WITH WAA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL EJECT NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND OUT OF THE
POSITIVELY TILTED AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE
NORTH AMERICAN INTERIOR. PLACED A LITTLE MORE DETAIL IN THE TIMING
AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. OVERALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR NEXT WEEK...THE
GFS/CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF ALL HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH THE TROF AND
UPPER LOW DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE GENERAL MODEL TREND IS TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN
ANALOGS. THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF COLD AIR IN THE NORTH AMERICAN
INTERIOR...BUT THE SOUTHEAST EXTENT AND THE MOVEMENT OF SHORT WAVES
TROFS THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. UNLIKE THE EVENT CHRISTMAS EVE...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
COLD AIR TO TAP IF A STRONG ENOUGH TROF EJECTS NORTHEAST. FOR
NOW...KEPT JUST SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK UNTIL THE PATTERN CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
OHIO VALLEY REMAINS UNDER BROAD RIDGING ALOFT. SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ
BRINGS SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS THIS MORNING BUT ALSO AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR STRATUS BY LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
TRAPPED UNDER TEMPERATURE INVERSION. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW NO
INDICATION OF LOW CLOUDS THOUGH AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS
GUIDANCE ARE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR
NOW. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT APPROACH BUT MOST
AVIATION IMPACT LOOKS TO BE JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


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