Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 271746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
146 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

High pressure continues to keep the region mostly dry into the
overnight hours tonight. Lows will be able to reach down into the
upper 50s to low 60s. For Sunday, a low pressure system and
trailing cold front will move through the area with showers and
storms. Highs will be in the 70s. Monday, Memorial Day, a pop
shower is possible later in the day as a disturbance moves
through. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017

Scattered showers contg across se portion of cwa along trailing
edge of MCV movg across nrn OH. This convection expected to
move out of the area by 12z. With threat of heavy rainfall
diminishing, have canceled Flash Flood Watch a few hours before
12z expiration.

Upr trof from ND-NV expected to deepen as it moves east to
a MN-KS line by Sunday morning. Fair wx expected today as
upr ridging in advance of this system moves across the cwa.
Diurnal heating should cause low cloudiness this morning
to mix out to a sct-bkn cu deck this aftn allowing for
highs mainly in the m70s.

As upr trof moves east, lee sfc low over se CO/ne NM expected to lift
ne into central IL. Forcing and moisture/instability return
along/ahead of this system`s warm front may cause showers/tstms to
spread into the cwa late tonight. Maintained likely pops across the
sw portion of the cwa for late tonight tapering to slight chc ne,
though some concern pops may be overdone as bulk of high res models
suggest a QLCS will race e-se across the mid MS/lower OH valley`s
overnight  disrupting moisture/instability return into our area.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017

Sfc low expected to lift ne across the cwa Sunday with
showers/tstms likely developing/continuing as the warm front
moves through in the morning and a second round psbl in the aftn
along the system`s trailing cdfnt. Aftn pre-frontal CAPE fcst
1500-2500j/kg with 30kt unidirectional deep layer shear and
steep lapse rates suggesting an isolated damaging wind/large hail
threat but wk frontal convergence and capping are sgfnt limiting
factors. Brief heavy rain psbl with any storms Sunday but attm
appears convection will be fairly short-lived at any given
location, so not expecting it to have sgfnt hydro impacts.

Sunday`s sfc low expected to lift n-nw into Ontario with a deep
vertically stacked low forming in this region Monday. This
will result in a cool Memorial Day with a chc of showers/tstms as
a wk shrtwv rotates around the upr low across the wrn Grtlks.
Similar conditions Tue as cyclonic flow and CAA conts, though
prbly cool enough by that time to keep convection sufficiently
shallow to prevent thunder.

Upr low will grdly fill and move east across se Canada Wed-Fri
with sfc high movg through our area. This should provide generally
fair wx through this timeframe, though an isolated shower psbl
with trailing wk shrtwv`s movg across the area. Slow departing
upr trof should allow for a slow moderating trend for temps to close
to normal by late week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

A boundary pushed south and ridging, coupled with weak low level
winds, moved into the area early Saturday morning. Early morning
MVFR/IFR CIGs diminished during the day setting up an afternoon
with VFR conditions, which will continue into the overnight. For
the overnight, expect VFR conditions as the convection from the
Plains dies out before it gets here. Then, expect a low pressure
system and trailing cold front to approach the area from the
Central Plains Sunday with a chance at showers and storms along
with a renewed chance at MVFR conditions in the morning.





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