Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 010007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
807 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Issued at 805 pM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Scattered evening showers will gradually decay and decrease in
coverage and intensity by midnight. wednesday morning lows will
dip to the upper 50s to lower 60s. A cold front will sweep across
the area Wednesday afternoon and night bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms. It will be humid Wednesday with
afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s. There will then be a
trend to cooler and less humid conditions that should persist into
next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Sfc ridging cntrd through the ern lakes slow to give up the ghost
ahd of apchg stg sw and attendant sfc fntl zone shifting out of
the plains. Old washed out fntl bndry fm the weekend working back
nwd this aftn alg wrn periphery of ll anticyclone and looks to
spark isold shra/tsra acrs far wrn/swrn zones this aftn. While
CAMS guidance differs widely in this potential will blend of
hrrr/spc 4km wrf and carry isold chc mention far west this

Flw slow to veer overnight and xpc any downstream forced
shra/tsra to hold wwd acrs IL within increasing ll theta-e ridge.
This ftr xpcd to progress ewd on wed and mid lvl cyclone conts ewd
through the mn arrowhead. While forcing invof sfc fntl zone and
fvrbl ll theta-e ridge exists...will hold w/mid range chc pops
cntrl/west in the aftn and cwa wide wed evening as btr larger
scale forcing passes well nw acrs the upr midwest. Regardless mid
lvl cyclone opens up overnight wed through thu as it lifts out
acrs se Canada which will allow swd extending sfc bndry to
accelerate ewd. Sharp 12Z model consensus dropping thu morning
shra mention se as deep lyrd post fntl drying spreads sewd acrs
the area.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Flat wrly flow aloft in wake of shrt term sys buckles sigly this
weekend in response to stg upstream ridge dvlpmnt acrs the wrn
US. Leading sw looks quite robust as it digs rapidly sewd through
the wrn lakes lt sat into erly sun and offers up what shld be a
good chc for needed rain sat aftn into erly sun. This sys will be
slow to eject out through the St Lawrence valley w/some lingering
diurnally enhanced shra probable both sun/mon aftn. Otrws much
cooler temps xpcd given abundant cld cvr and seasonably stg ll caa
acrs the OH valley.

Beyond that upr pattn looks remarkably quite locally in btwn
persisting ern Canada mean troughing and Rockies dominant upr
ridging w/a rtn of dry wx and moderating temps xpcd locally dys


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 754 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Diurnal decay of isold TSRA invof KSBN and SHRA invof KFWA to
continue with little more than residual mid level cloud cover
beyond about midnight. Concern rises for mid/late afternoon
convection reinitiating along N/S boundary laid out between both
northern Indiana terminal sites and cover with VCTS for now.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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