Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 261744
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1244 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO
THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WAS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO
WEST RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES. WEAK LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER WAS
SQUEEZING OUT FLURRIES IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THIS TREND LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. NO CONCERNS FOR ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS
TIME AND HAVE SIMPLY WENT WITH SCT FLURRY MENTION INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE AS NOTED ABOVE HAVE HAD
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. STILL
CROSSING FINGERS THAT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL BE
ABLE TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER WITH VIS SAT SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN
A FEW AREAS. QUITE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT THE SUN WILL NOT BE
SEEN TODAY BY MUCH OF THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH IF CLOUDS HOLD STRONG MAY NEED TO LOWER HIGHS A
BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SFC RIDGE ACRS THE WRN LAKES WILL DECAY THIS PD INADV OF WK NRN
STREAM SW AMPLIFYING SEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. SWD PASSAGE OF
THIS SYS ALG THE OH RVR WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER POLAR AIRMASS TO
BRIEFLY WORK THROUGH THE AREA ON THU. THUS W/LL THERMAL TROUGHING
INCREASING LT PD AND MORE FVRBL VEERED FLW DVLPG TWD DAYBREAK WILL
CONT W/LOW CHC POPS FAR NW.

OTRWS PER WK BNDRY LYR FLW UNDERNEATH PERSISTING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DOUBT CURRENT STRATUS WEDGE LOCKED IN ACRS CWA WILL ERODE
OUT MUCH TDA SANS PERHAPS FAR SW. THUS SIDED W/COLDER MET MOS
PREFERRED TEMP BLEND THIS AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A REINFORCING SHOT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR BEHIND A THURSDAY MORNING
UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING AND HIGH MID LVL STATIC STABILITY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHOULD DAMPEN THE UVM RESPONSE AND PRECIP POTENTIAL
EARLY THU AM. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT WILL KICK IN LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS VEER NORTHWESTERLY AND
700 MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -20C WITHIN TROUGH AXIS. THE RESULTING
AUGMENTATION TO THE MOISTURE PROFILE/DEPTH...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
PUSHING 8-9 KFT AND BETTER OMEGA/SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE LINING UP
IN LOWER PORTION OF DGZ MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE ROBUST
NW FLOW MULTIBANDS. CONTINUED WITH GENERAL 1-3" SNOW AMOUNTS IN
FAVORED NW FLOW LE BELT FOR NOW...WITH LITTLE/NO ACCUMS ELSEWHERE.
LAKE EFFECT MACHINE SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN THURSDAY EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CRASHING INVERSION HEIGHTS/BACKING
FLOW/DRYING.

RELAXATION OF HEIGHT FIELD TO FLATTER ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL YIELD A MORE VARIABLE TEMP PATTERN AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE OSCILLATES BETWEEN THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL LAKES.
THIS FEATURE IS STILL MODELED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA LATER FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS STILL
HINTING AT BETTER FGEN/FORCING (ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION EMBEDDED IN FLATTENING FLOW) POTENTIALLY CLIPPING OUR
NNE ZONES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FRI AFTN-EARLY EVE
(DUSTING-1"?). STILL EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT.
THIS WARMUP APPEARS SHORT LIVED AS A ROUND OF UPPER MIDWEST TO NRN
LAKES HEIGHT FALLS LIKELY FORCES BOUNDARY AND SHOWER CHANCES (THIS
TIME MAINLY RAIN) BACK SOUTH LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

STRATUS REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEAK EASTERLY
FLOW. AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST...FLOW WILL COME
AROUND TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FETCH...STILL KEEPING THE CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE. VIS SAT SHOWING SOME HINTS OF THINNING IN SOME
AREAS ACROSS NW OHIO WITH CIGS PUSHING TOWARDS VFR. WILL TRY TO
REMAIN OPTIMISTIC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING BACK TO VFR.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND LOWER CIGS WILL ARRIVE AGAIN. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH KSBN AROUND/BEFORE 12Z AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER AT KFWA.
QUICK BURST OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MAIN EFFECT
BEING STARTUP OF LAKE EFFECT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO AREA OF KSBN
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER WELL BEYOND
THE CURRENT PERIOD WITH SOME CONCERNS FOR BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS THAT COULD CAUSE EXCURSIONS INTO IFR RANGE. EXACT SETUP
STILL IN QUESTION SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANYTHING MORE THAN MVFR
CIGS/VSBY FOR NOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


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