Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 180757
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
357 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

RENEWED SFC RIDGING BLDG SEWD OUT OF CANADA IN BEHIND VIGOROUS SW
TROUGH AMPLIFYING EWD ACRS SE CANADA WILL RESULT IN A CONTN OF
STELLAR LT SUMMER CONDS THIS PD. HIGH THIS AFTN SHLD AGAIN NOTCH A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YDA FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TOP THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND RACE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTION
SPREADS AMONG THE GFS...CANADIAN...ECMWF STILL EXIST...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL STRONGER
TROF. PREFER THE ECMWF OVERALL HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING THE
TIMING AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...850 MB TEMPS STILL POISED TO
RISE TO AROUND 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES SATURDAY.
CONCERN THAT WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...WEAK INITIAL LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND SOMEWHAT OF A LOW LEVEL CAP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ELEVATED MIX LAYER THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY.
LOWERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVER NORTHERN AREAS FOR THIS REASON.
ALSO SOME CONCERN THAT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND REMNANTS OF ODILE
WILL REACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...THE LATEST WPC
FORECASTS ALONG WITH MODEL DATA KEEP THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...SOUTHERN MOISTURE TAP
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR
SHOULD REACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY DRY...BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE DELTA T VALUES
SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 16C GIVEN A WARM LAKE WATER TEMP OF AROUND 20C
PER GOES SOUNDER. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO ANY SHOWERS AS WINDS
VEER NORTHEAST AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA  WITH AN EAST WIND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY PLEASANT MIDWEEK WEATHER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD AS RENEWED SFC RIDGING BLDS SEWD INVOF ST
LAW VALLEY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


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