000
FXUS63 KIWX 061658
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT. THEN LOOK FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FINALLY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

WEAK YET PERSISTENT MID TROPOSPHERIC HGHT RISES ACRS CWA AS
TEMPORARY MID CONUS SPLIT FLOW DVLPS WITH ASSERTIVE TROUGHING
THROUGH GULF STATES LEAVES CANADIAN WAVE TRAIN BELTED WELL
NORTH...AT LEAST THROUGH SHORT TERM PD. NIL SENSIBLE WX CONCERNS
WITH DOMINANT SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FM SRN QUEBEC INTO CNTL WI
THIS AM TO SAG SWD TO NEW ENGLAND TO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
POSITION BY 12 UTC FRI. DRY/SUBSIDENT CP AIRMASS TO PREVAIL. SOME
CONCERN WITH MAX TEMPS TODAY GIVEN STRENGTH OF ANTECEDENT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED NEAR 950 MB PER LAPS/RAP13 SOUNDINGS
AND SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW TO SQUELCH SFC RECOVERY WITH STABLE SFC
BASED LYR WITH MORE ASSERTIVE WAA AFFORDED AT 925MB AND HIR.
LIGHT FRESHENING TO SNOWPACK ALSO SUGGESTS TEMPERING AS SIG
SUNRISE TEMP FALLS NEAR SUNRISE PSBL IN PARTIALLY DECOUPLED
REGIONS. SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO PREV FCST WITH CONSSHORT
BLENDING... MAINTAINING PRIOR FLAVOR/GRADIENTS. GREATER WAA
OVERNIGHT VIA STRENGTHENING VEERING BLYR FLOW WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES THE FIRST 5
DAYS OF MARCH HAS BEEN AVERAGING 17 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...A BREAK IN THE COLD PATTERN WILL FEEL
WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED REMAINING SNOW AND ICE
PACK OVER THE AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE INHIBITED FROM
RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO. AFTER THAT...THE DOOR SEEMINGLY CLOSES TO THE WARM AIR NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
BECOMES REESTABLISHED AND MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK
OVER THE AREA. A VERY STRONG AND CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE GFS
AND CANADIAN ANALOGS SUPPORT THIS RETURN TO THE COLD PATTERN
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...RAISED SNOW CHANCES
SATURDAY GIVEN UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND MIXING RATIOS AROUND 3
G/KG ON THE 290K SURFACE. FAVORED A ECMWF/NAM 12 THAT APPEAR TO
BE HANDLING THIS EVENT THE BEST. CURRENT THINKING IS SNOW AMOUNTS
SATURDAY SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

VFR/DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DETAIL IN THE TAFS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR GRADUAL VEERING OF SFC WINDS AS WESTERN EXTENSION OF
THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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