Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 010522
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...AND HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE
70S...EXCEPT A BIT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROF AXIS AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
PUSHING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHRA IN NE
CWA...PRECIP HAS EXITED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A WELCOMED PERIOD OF DRY WX. SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS WELL AND DRAG TRAILING COLD
FRONT THE AREA THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. ADDNL RAINFALL FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY ADDED TO THE
ALREADY AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHILE MID LEVEL DRYING
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AREAS OF FOG THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT
ANTICIPATE A REPEAT AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL POPULATE GRIDS WITH AREAS
OF FOG FOR NOW AND LET EVENING SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR DENSE FOG
ADV. CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 10F
BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE M50S AND HIGHS L-M70S WITH
NOTICEABLE LAKE SHADOW IN WEAK W/NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONT IN A NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GTLKS
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL FRI WHEN
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS KY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP
TO THE THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES FRI/FRI NITE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EWD FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SCTD PRECIP DURING THE WEEKEND...MAINLY ON SUN. AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH FRI THEN BEGIN WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO CHANGES TO 6Z TAFS WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECOUPLING AND CROSS OVER
TEMPS BEING APPROACHED EXPECTED AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR FOG AND
STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN THE 9 TO 12Z WINDOW BEFORE QUICKLY BURNING
OFF. NAM CU RULE SUGGEST SCATTERED TO MAYBE BROKEN CU DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LAKE AS
LAKE BREEZE/SHADOW DEVELOPS AND WORKS SE. THIS MAY IMPACT KSBN IN
THE 21 TO 00Z WINDOW ALLOWING SOMEWHAT QUICKER CLEARING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...FISHER


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