Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 282250

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
650 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Issued at 647 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will taper through the evening. A cold
front will then move through overnight and bring cooler and less
humid air into the region for Memorial Day Monday and into
midweek. However, a shower or isolated thunderstorm can`t be
ruled out later in the day Memorial Day afternoon as a result of
a weak disturbance moving through. Low temperatures drop back
into the middle to upper 50s overnight, then rebound into the
lower to middle 70s on Memorial Day. Highs will trend cooler into
the middle to upper 60s by Wednesday then moderate back into the
70s by next weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 647 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Primary focus on afternoon/evening convection amid corridor of
1500-2000 j/kg axis in advance of approaching cold front. Better
deep layer shear lags west of instability axis and large factor in
maintaining storms to near/sub severe limits versus higher end
risk. West to east storm motion along prior latent
outflows/differential heating axis. Strong 0-2km moisture flux
convergence with most convection presenting warm rain processes
and numerous cell mergers adding to flooding concerns, especially
in areas where antecedent conditions are deeply saturated.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 647 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Much quieter, cooler than normal through the rest of the week.
One final/slight shortwave disturbance rotating through Upper
Great Lakes vortex before it fills/lifts out northeast to present
a low/quite limited convection potential Tuesday afternoon.
Otherwise, blocking pattern appears to hold into next weekend with
mean central CONUS ridge dominating for at or below normal
temps and fortunately below normal rainfall amounts.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Primarily VFR through the forecast period. Focus on timing out
convection in vicinity of KFWA. Otherwise, primary significance
appears to be greater diurnal mixing depth in post frontal
regime/shallow instability midday/afternoon hours Monday with
uptick in wswly flow/gusts. Minor/very low chance shra Monday
afternoon appears to be too low for inclusion at this time.




LONG TERM...Murphy

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