Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 161122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
622 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Issued at 613 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

It will be drier but colder today with high temperatures this
afternoon only reaching the lower to middle 30s. There is a
chance of light rain or light snow late Saturday but little
accumulation is expected. A stronger system will bring warmer
temperatures as well as widespread rain to the region Monday into
Tuesday. Temperatures could reach into the 60s but rainfall may
also lead to some flooding.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Much drier air was spreading across the area behind a cold front
that passed yesterday. There was still some patchy fog lingering
overnight, especially in the vicinity of remaining snowcover. This
remaining fog will lift/dissipate later today as cooler and drier
air continues to spread southeast. Deep layer subsidence will
continue to increase today, causing clearing skies this afternoon
into this evening. Lows tonight under mostly clear skies will
drop into the teens to around 20.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Concerns continue for the potential for the unfolding of a
significant hydrologic event from late Sunday into the middle of
next week. The ECMWF is slower than the GFS and favors rain
continuing through most of Wednesday. Several factors appear very
supported for an extended rainfall event that could persist for 72
hours. Precipitable water values may meet or exceed 1.4 inches
which would top the climatological values for this time of year.
NAEFS/ensemble forecasts show a wide swatch of mean precip water
values of 99%/climate max late Monday from east Texas into the
Upper Great Lakes region. WPC is supportive of of heavy rainfall
with widespread amounts exceeding 2 inches during this period.
Will continue to mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook Product
for now.

Otherwise, a weak system will bring a light wintry rain/snow mix,
but any accumulations should be light.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Tricky forecast today with regards to cigs. Area observations
show a narrow corridor of IFR cigs in the 6-9 hft range between
KSBN and KFWA which seem to be slowly drifting toward KFWA. Hires
guidance wants to dissipate these clouds before reaching KFWA but
confidence low given persistent nature overnight. Will go ahead
and add a few hours of IFR at KFWA given recent ob showing few009
there. Otherwise cigs expected to be in the MVFR range through at
least early afternoon at both terminals. Continued with and
optimistic VFR forecast after 18z but HRRR model wants to keep
MVFR around until closer to 00z. Drier air finally wins out
tonight with clearing skies and light winds backing from northwest
to southwest.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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