Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 060848

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
348 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

Issued at 340 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2016

A low pressure system will lift northeastward from the Lower
Mississippi Valley into the Middle Ohio Valley region by noon
today. This system will bring a brief wintry mix at the onset
before the precipitation becomes all rain. Highs today will be in
the upper 30s. Then Much colder air will filter into the region
behind the system and set the stage for lake effect snow showers
Thursday through Friday night. High temperatures by Thursday
afternoon are only expected to reach the mid 20s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

An upper level system was near Memphis early this morning and was
moving northeast toward the Ohio River. The northwest edge of the
associated deformation zone will move across the forecast area today
and bring a mix of precipitation. A brief wintry mix is possible at
the onset, then the precipitation should become all rain as low
level thermal fields warm. Some brief snow or possibly sleet
accumulations are possible early this morning. Surface pavement
temperatures have dipped below freezing at several locations, so it
is possible there could be brief travel impacts. Precipitation
should end by early evening with skies staying cloudy to mostly


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

A cold front will move across the area Thursday, bringing much
colder weather into the weekend. Lake effect snow will develop
Thursday as much colder air spreads over the relatively warm waters
of Lake Michigan.  Delta T values over 20C at 850 mb with a west to
northwest flow will favor snow accumulations over far southwest
Lower Michigan into northwest Indiana. Current thoughts are 5 to 8
inches over these areas near the lake with lesser amounts farther
inland. Lake effect snow will diminish from late Friday into early
Saturday as winds back to the southwest. More snow is expected by
Sunday as a GFS/EC/GEM blend now appears more favorable for
accumulating snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 1229 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

Stratus in full retreat this morning and had finally cleared nw
areas. Backed low level flow tapping into drier air over wrn OH and
in light of expanding mid to high cloud shield advancing rapidly
northward do not expect any further cig/vis restrictions to develop
other than high end mvfr br over remaining thin snowpack nw.
Otherwise mid level deformation zone associated with newd ejecting
srn stream disturbance over the lower MS valley will provide a
glancing shot of rain invof KFWA toward 18Z. Renewed low level cold
advection will then envelope the area with redevelopment of lower
bound mvfr cigs anticipated this evening.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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