Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 020800
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
400 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING TO
AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SFC OBS SHOWING SPORADIC VSBY DROPS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AS
GROUND FOG WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP. WILL MONITOR THROUGH SUNRISE BUT
RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG (DENSE FOG) LOOKS VERY LOW.

CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WAS MEANDER EASTWARD ACROSS VIRGINIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER
EAST AND ALLOW SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR TO CONTINUE TO SPILL IN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING THROUGH 875 TO 850 MB WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE STAYED A TOUCH COOLER IN
SE AREAS BUT DID RAISE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 70. ONE MORE COOL NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS DROPPING TO
AROUND 50 AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

MODEL CONSENSUS OF PERIOD OF BLOCKED MID TROP FLOW TO DEVELOP BY
MIDWEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS GULF OF AK ENERGY BECOMES
CUTOFF ACRS NRN CA LATE WED. HGTS BUILD ACRS CNTL CONUS INTO WRN
GRTLKS WHILE INITIAL SHORTWAVE EJECTION TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SHEARED OUT AS IT LIFTS NEWD FM INTMTN REGION THROUGH NRN PLAINS AND
WRN GRTLKS BY WED NIGHT. SOMEWHAT CONFIDENTLY HAVE ESCHEWED DRY
FORECAST WITH SALIENT CUTS AGAINST LOW CHCS AFFORDED BY BLENDED POPS
UNTIL FRI. LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY INTO CWA /THETA-E
PLUME HELD WELL WEST OF CWA/ ALONG WITH MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WITH CWA TWIXT PLAINS FOCUS AND SLOW EASTWARD SHIFTING
CUTOFF THROUGH TN VLY INTO CAROLINAS...AFFORDING QUITE WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR/COL. MORE SUCCINCT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT THROUGH PERIPHERY
OF PLAINS RIDGE DY4/5 TIMEFRAME WITH AT LEAST DIFFUSE SFC BNDRY TO
APPROACH WRN GRTLKS THEN LYING OUT IN E/W FASHION THROUGH SRN
GRTLKS...SETTLING INTO OHIO VLY SAT. TARGET BEST CHCS FOR TSRA
FRI/FRI NIGHT TIMEFRAME. HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY TOWARD END OF
FCST PD CONCEDING BLENDED POPS...WITH ADDNL EFFECTS/TSRA CHCS
ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES EMANATING FM PROLIFIC
UPSTREAM/GULF OF AK VORTEX.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

FOG LOOP SHOWING AREA OF STRATUS TRYING TO WORK WESTWARD THROUGH
NW OHIO WITH RUC TRYING TO MOVE THIS WEST INTO PORTIONS OF NE
INDIANA INCLUDING KFWA. KAOH BRIEFLY REPORTED 5SM IN FOG BUT THIS
HAS SINCE ENDED. WILL BE LEAVING TEMPO GROUP AT KFWA SINCE IT
LIKELY WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME PATCHY FOG VCNTY OF TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE WILL MONITOR WESTWARD TREND OF STRATUS FOR POSSIBLE
AMENDMENT. AT KSBN...NO WORRIES WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME PASSING
CIRRUS TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...FEW VFR CU MAY POPS LATE AM INTO LATE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSPATE AND LEAVE BEHIND CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...FISHER


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