Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 030737
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
337 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
AND OHIO TODAY... OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 70S. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH
THE LOWER MICHIGAN HIGH SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES... LIGHT WINDS... AND COOL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTN/EVE. AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATTM...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR REMOVED AS EVIDENCED BY SCT
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREA OF WK
LOW LEVEL ISENT LIFT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE RECENTLY ALL TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
COOL POOL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME WK INSTABILITY TO DVLP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM LATEST HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
TO SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY THIS AFTN. SLOW WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AS RATHER STAGNANT
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MI CONTS TO MODIFY... HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT WARMUP ACROSS SRN AREAS...
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M70S ACROSS THE AREA.

AS SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER MI
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S-SE INTO OUR CWA PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN
CANADA UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/BUILDING INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORT HIGHER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POPS DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCED SOUTH INTO THE
OH VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A DRY/COOLER WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 105 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHRTWV OVER IA WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS INDIANA DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD CONFINE ANY SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO AREAS SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS THOUGH SOME LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT FWA.
STILL SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS BLO 1KFT AT FWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING RESULTING IN LIGHT SFC WINDS WITH FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC. NO MENTION OF LLWS AT SBN
WITH LIGHTER FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


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