Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 110746
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
346 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

BENIGN WX WILL CONT THROUGH THIS PD AS SFC ANTICYCLONE BEGINS A SLW
EWD RETREAT TONIGHT. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE CERTAINLY SLOWED W/EWD
PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OF PLAINS FNTL WAVE. THUS IN LIGHT OF STG 00Z
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HOLDING LL RTN FLW/THETA-E RIDGE WELL WEST WILL
DROP ALL POPS OVERNIGHT.

OTRWS TEMPS NR NORMAL THIS PD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE SECONDARY
PV ANOMALY JUST NORTH OF THERE WILL BE THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURES
DICTATING THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THESE TWO WAVES
WILL MERGE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY SETTING UP DIRECTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK.
CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THOUGH...ALLOWING WSW FLOW TO ADVECT A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVES PASS. WILL TAKE AT LEAST SOME TIME
FOR THIS BETTER MOISTURE TO FULLY INFILTRATE OUR CWA ON SATURDAY
THOUGH. NOCTURNAL LLJ/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS FOCUSED TO OUR
WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS UPSTREAM WILL
STRUGGLE TO CROSS OUR CWA GIVEN STUBBORN LOW LEVEL THETA-E DEFICIT.
EXPECT JUST A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST. WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS THOUGH...LIKELY CAPPING HIGHS
AROUND 80F DESPITE VERY WARM THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT.

MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH. COMBINATION OF
VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...MODEST INSTABILITY...AND STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TIMING IS NOT IDEAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THOUGH. 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 1500 J/KG FOR OUR CWA WITH MEAGER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT FRONT IS ALREADY
HALFWAY THROUGH OUR CWA BY THAT POINT AND BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS
SOUTH OF OUR CWA. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION BUT QUESTIONABLE THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST A LOW/CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR NOW. HEAVY RAIN MAY BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 2 INCHES...A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...AND AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING/BACKBUILDING STORMS.

FRONT MAKES VERY SLOW PROGRESS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND COULD
SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS BEFORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL EXPECTING
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS
ROUGHLY 2SD BELOW NORMAL. LEANED TOWARD COOLER RAW GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY TUES/WED WHEN HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 70F. WILL
THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD AS SFC ANTICYCLONE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T


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