Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 220854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
454 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Issued at 157 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Dry weather is in store for today as high pressure tracks across
the Ohio Valley. Chances of rain will increase later tonight
across southwest Lower Michigan and northwest Indiana as a weak
disturbances approaches from the west. Low chances of rain are
expected for Tuesday, with rain becoming likely by Wednesday as a
stronger disturbance slowly tracks across the central United
States. This system will be slow to exit with rain chances
persisting Wednesday night into Thursday. High temperatures today
will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s with low temperatures
tonight dropping back into the lower to mid 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Skies should clear temporarily as subsidence increases behind the
departing wave. Highs should be able to top 70 over most areas
given abundant sunshine. Clouds will start to increase by this
evening ahead of the next system with chances for showers
increasing over northwest areas overnight.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Rain chances will be increasing toward the middle of the week as a
strong impulse drops into the long wave pattern over eastern North
America. Forecast challenges include location and development of
rain Wednesday and subsequent forecast high temperatures. Have not
been comfortable with the model blend high temperatures close to 70
degrees Wednesday over northwest Ohio; favor cooler highs given
the rain and an east wind north of the low. The best chances for
rain are from Wednesday into early Wednesday night as upper level
support increases. A few embedded storms are possible; however,
the storms are not expected to become severe. The upper level flow
should become more southwest by late in the week and allow
temperatures to rise well into the 70s and possibly into the 80s
this weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 157 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Very little change from previous 00Z TAFS with VFR conditions
expected to hold this forecast cycle. Westerly wind gusts continue
to slowly diminish early this morning, but should stay up around
the 10 knot range into the early morning hours. Vort lobe across
southwest Wisconsin rotating through parent southwest Ontario
upper circulation will lift across the western Great Lakes region
this morning with fairly strong subsidence overspreading the
region. This should erode VFR low clouds this morning. Clouds
eventually increase late today and especially tonight across
northwest Indiana downstream of weak perturbation lifting
northeast from the Mid Ms Valley. Will keep TAFS dry at this time,
although may need to consider -shra or vcsh mention at KSBN late
tonight with the next TAF issuance. Combination of diurnal mixing
and strong deep layer subsidence should support west gusts into
the 20 to 25 knot range once again late morning/afternoon.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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