Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281454
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1054 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL PASS THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH IT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STABLE/LESS
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A ROCKIES PV ANOMALY THAT WILL SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA OF DEEPER
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WNW OF THE FA BY
TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF DEEPENING SW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PER WELL TRACKED RUN TO RUN FEATURES. CONTINUED
TO FOCUS ON GREATEST POP/QPF POTENTIAL SAT-SUN. CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT LESSENED CHANCES ON FRI GIVEN SEQUESTER OF HIGH THETA-E RIBBON
WELL S-W OF REGION...INITIALLY FROM EASTERN NE TO EASTERN KY EARLY
FRI. BETTER KINEMATIC PROFILE ATOP NEWD RETREATING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS HELD WELL UPSTREAM WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WORTHY OF MID RANGE POPS...TAPERING DRY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OH. MINIMIZED THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
INITIAL POOR MUCAPE PROFILES. POPS RAMP INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
CENTRAL ROCKIES CYCLONE WITH STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAW LIFTS
OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED
BY OVERTAKING NORTHERN TIER CONUS SHORTWAVE. SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /ON ORDER OF
20-40M/12 HRS/ ALONG WITH FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
READILY FOSTER DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMID MODEST SBCAPE IN
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. HIGH/NEAR 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUAL
MOISTURE RESUPPLY PER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST PROFILE.
MULTIPLE/REPETITIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP 12-14KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO AS WELL AS INTRODUCING TSRA HEAVY RAINFALL
ATTRIBUTE MENTION TO NDFD WEATHER.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS/BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHEAST CWA ON DY4...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT. PRIOR DISCUSSION ADDRESSED POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR MONDAY AND
CONCUR WITH HEIGHTENED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DY5/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROF THAT SPREADS THROUGHOUT
WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS CONUS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENS/RETREATS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL/PROBLEMATIC BUT
APPEARS DECENT AT THIS MOMENT AS SHORTWAVE ARTICULATES THROUGH
WI/NORTHERN IL TO WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA AT PEAK HEATING...LEAVING
CWA POISED IN STRONG RIGHT/REAR UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW AFFORDING 40-50 KTS DEEP/0-6KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
COLD POOL CONGEALMENT INTO ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS PER PARALLEL
SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. GRADUAL REBUILD OF HEIGHTS SURFACE/ALOFT LENDS STRONG
FAVOR TO PRIOR ESCHEWAL OF CONSENSUS POPS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 09Z UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THANKS TO SOME ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON/ERIE
IN WEAK NNE FLOW. SATELLITE/HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS CLOUD
DECK MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW INTO FWA THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT THANKS TO CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION/DAYTIME HEATING. VFR
OTHERWISE AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEER MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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