Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 041538
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1138 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SFC OBS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA
ATTM... BUT STILL VFR AT SBN/FWA TERMINALS. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEPER AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT EVEN THIS
TERMINAL IS CURRENTLY VFR SO DON`T PLAN TO EXTEND TEMPO BR MENTION
INTO THIS TAF PERIOD. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS A RATHER DRY/STABLE AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO STILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT HELD OFF INTRODUCING BR TO EITHER TAF ATTM
IN ORDER TO SEE HOW THIS MORNING`S FOG/VSBYS PLAY OUT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


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