Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 221851

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
251 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Quiet weather will dominate the remainder of the weekend. Expect
clear to partly cloudy skies through Monday. Lows tonight will be
in the 40`s. Highs Sunday will be in the mid-upper 60`s and low
70`s. On Monday, highs will fall back into the 50`s and low 60`s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Low level warm air advection already underway across the region
as closed low continue to move into New England and allow a weak
return flow to establish. This will allow for a warmer short term
period for all areas with greatest impacts SW as lows drop into
the 40s and highs move well into the 60s to possibly lower 70s in
SW areas.

Weak disturbance will move through the northern Lakes Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night, forcing a backdoor cold front south
into the area. Moisture and dynamics rather limited allowing for a
rather uneventful passage.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Fairly typical late October temperatures will be on tap for the area
as weak upper level ridging takes place before a stronger short wave
moves out of the plains and deepens as it moves through the Great
Lakes. Specific timing and strength details are still not overly
clear, but at least point towards the best chance for showers
arriving late Weds afternoon into Wednesday night. If somewhat
slower/deeper solution comes to fruition, thunder chances may need
to be introduced as modest instability could arrive prior to fropa.

Showers may persist into Thursday before brief zonal flow
establishes to bring dry conditions and slightly above normal
temperatures. A lower amplitude shortwave will move through the
central Plains over the weekend that could bring another chance
for showers. Keeping things rather low key with no real strong
influx of moisture for the system.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

A building ridge of high pressure will keep conditions primarily
VFR through the TAF period. Some of the model guidance have BR
developing at both sites towards 10-12Z Sun morning, but only
have vis dropping to 5-6 SM. Left out of the TAF for now given low
confidence and limited potential impacts.




LONG TERM...Fisher

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