Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 290810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
410 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

A warm front will move slowly north from the Ohio River this
morning to southern Michigan Sunday causing showers and scattered
thunderstorms in our area. Heavy rainfall is possible, especially
over northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan tonight through
Sunday night. Cool temperatures tonight will warm considerably
Sunday behind the warm front. A cold front will sweep across the
area Sunday night causing showers and possibly thunderstorms.
Windy and cooler conditions with a chance of showers will follow
the front Monday and Tuesday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Warm front extending ne from low over TX into to the OH River this
morning with widespread tstm activity in vcnty of this boundary.
This front is expected to lift slowly north across srn IN today
resulting in an increase in shower coverage from south to north
across our cwa. Elevated instability will also be overspreading
the area providing chance of tstms to reach as far north as the
Toll Road. With the front remaining to our south today temps will
not rise much with highs fcst to range from the m50s north to the
m60s south. As the srn plains low lifts ne, warm front expected to
lift north into central IN tonight. Heaviest rainfall expected to
be across our nw closer to nose of LLJ ahead of the ejecting low.
Given very moist airmass over-running the front and deep warm
cloud layer, locally heavy rainfall psbl across the rest of the
area, but stronger forcing across the nw supports not expanding
the FFA in place for that area attm. With warm front apchg,
little diurnal temp drop expected tonight with lows ranging from
the m40s north to the m50s south.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Warm front expected to lift into srn MI Sunday, followed by a
strong occluding cdfnt sweeping from sw to ne across the cwa
Sunday night. Main focus for widespread and potentially heavy
rainfall remains across the nw portion of the cwa closer to the
slow moving warm frontal boundary, while se should get more
solidly into the warm sector Sunday. Moderate instability should
develop in this warm sector Sunday aftn, but wk capping and lack
of forcing in this area supports just chc tstm pops. Temps should
warm into the 70s over most of the cwa Sunday and in the l-m80s
far se.

Strong occluding cold front will sweep from sw to ne across the
cwa Sunday night. Diurnal instability will be waning as front
moves through but given very strong wind fields there could be
some pockets of damaging wind gusts with stronger convective
elements along the front. Strong CAA Monday will result in steady
or slowly falling temps, mainly in the 50s west and lower 60s
east. Cyclonic flow associated with slowly departing deep low
across the upr grtlks/se Canada may keep some showers in the area
into Tue.

Medium range models have trended farther nw with track of another
deep low expected middle-late next week. This necessitated
bumping up pops a bit mainly for sern portion of the cwa, though
just to chc as still questionable if this system will track far
enough to the nw to impact our area. Temps should remain blo
normal through the week as upr troffing becomes established over
the ern U.S..


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Although extensive showers and storms were ongoing along the Ohio
River, lighter rain and drizzle has allowed for pockets of
increased saturation and subsequent lowering of cigs into IFR
range (actually KMZZ sitting at 400 ft). No clear signals that
this trend will take over as weak returns over the area have been
on the wane and may signal the temporary lull in activity. A small
cluster of storms has formed N of KIND but will remain south of
KFWA. Still expecting slowly deteriorating at KFWA as warm front
works north during the day with rain/storm chances increasing.
Similar trends, albeit slower, will take place at KSBN with an
extended period of rain/embedded storms across the area through
the remainder of the TAF period.


IN...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Monday morning for

MI...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Monday morning for

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Sunday
     for LMZ043-046.




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