Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 161954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
254 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Issued at 250 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Dry conditions with above normal temperatures will continue
through the start of next week, with highs in the 50`s and low
60`s. The next chance for rain showers won`t be until Tuesday and


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Quiet weather will continue through the short term period, with
mainly cloud cover from a passing shortwave and above normal
temperatures to contend with. After the weak low pressure trough
shifts northeastward tonight, the upper level ridge to our southwest
lifts northward into the CWA and lingers through Fri night. You
might find yourself wondering what month it is as temperatures
Friday afternoon will climb into the 50`s and low 60`s. Normal
high temperatures for this time of year at FWA/SBN are in the
upper 30`s. Normal lows are in the 40`s. Daily max temp records
for Friday look to be tied if the forecast works out...but we`ll
have to wait and see.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Balmy spring-like weather looks to continue through the entire long
term period, with high temperatures in the 50`s and even low 60`s.
Our area will remain under largely zonal flow aloft Saturday and
Sunday as a cut off low pressure system drifts across the gulf
states. Behind that system, another upper level ridge amplifies
across the central/northern plains and shifts over the Great Lakes
region. With the steep ridge aloft and surface high pressure in
place,removed model blend suggested pops for Monday
morning/afternoon. It looks as if the low pressure trough in the
northern plains will struggle to break down the expansive ridge over
our do not have enough confidence to keep in pops.

Monday night into early Tuesday afternoon the northern plains trough
finally cuts into the ridge, shifting it northeastward into Ontario.
This will bring a weak trough through the area. kept consensus 20-30
pops for now...given that there is still a chance any precipitation
that develops could dissipate as it crashes into the surface high
anchored in place over our area. Moisture along the approaching trough
is also deeper, with PWATS climbing up to nearly 1 inch.

Confidence in Weather Wed-Thu is lower given model differences,
however it looks like the flow aloft will be somewhat zonal, with
weak waves rippling through and kicking off precipitation chances at
the surface. Lowered the consensus pops (which were 30-50
percent) to be more in the 20-30 percent range for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 135 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Light south/southwest winds will begin to back more southeasterly
later this afternoon in advance of a warm front that will be
lifting across northern Indiana tonight. Winds will shift more
southerly after warm frontal passage later tonight, and continuing
through this forecast valid period. Mainly warm advection induced
mid and high clouds expected through this period. Some very low
end potential of some patchy MVFR cigs/patchy shallow fog
overnight, but will maintain VFR conditions with the 18Z TAFS with
very low confidence in occurrence. A modest westerly low level
jet will develop tonight, but LLWS criteria is not expected to be
met at this time.





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