Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 200544
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
144 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BE MOVING ON AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH TOMORROW BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.UPDATE...

OF NOTE: WEATHER OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT BEING TRANSMITTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES...REFERENCE THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT FROM THIS OFFICE FOR DETAILS.

WILL BE MAKING SOME MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS IN NW AND SE AREAS
WHERE FORCING HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO MAKE IT
TO THE GROUND DESPITE HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.
BENTON HARBOR ASOS MEASURED AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH OF PRECIP WITH
KSBN LOOKING TO SEE SOME AS WELL SHORTLY. FORT WAYNE HAD TRACE
AMOUNTS. WILL SPEED UP TIMING OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS IN GRIDS
TO COVER BUT NO SIG CHANGES.




&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MULIPLEXED SHORTWAVES WITHIN UPSTREAM TROF FROM WRN HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWARD INTO SERN SD TO PHASE/SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS EWD INTO
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MON MORNING. DEARTH OF MOISTURE WITHIN 900-600
MB LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RENDER MSRBL RAFL
CHANCES CONSIDERABLE AND HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION...SAVE FOR CHC
SPRINKLES NWRN/NRN CWA BYND 09 UTC. BETTER /ALBEIT MODEST/ CHANCES
FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN COLLOCATED 1000-850MB THETA-E
RIDGING NOSING THROUGH SERN CWA WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE WITHIN
LOWEST 100 MB AND LARGE SCALE UVM ACCENTUATED BY STRONG/INCREASING
MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID ON ORDER OF 70-80M/12 HRS
TRAVERSING SEWD THROUGH CWA. SECONDARY HEIGHTENED CHANCES IN NWRN
CWA AS POST FRONTAL CAA WITH MEDIOCRE THERMAL INSTABILITY LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS APPROACHING MID TEENS IN THE NWRN CWA. MODIFIED 3
HOURLY CURVE WITH NON-DIURNAL CURVE TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE
BLEND...IN ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH SHARP FALLS WITH SUNSET
TONIGHT/POTENTIAL MIDDLE NIGHT LOWS AND FOR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CAA
TO BRING FALLING TEMPS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON ACRS NWRN/NRN CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUSTAIN COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH/FLUX OFF OF LAKE MI MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SIG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
SQUASHES EQL. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN TRAILING
CYCLONIC FLOW TO SHEAR THROUGH.

DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A NARROWING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A MID-ATLANTIC CUT-OFF LOW. THIS
STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND INTO
FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DOMINATES
UNDER FLATTER/HIGHER LAT WNW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MID LEVEL FORCING HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT KFWA AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIP ARRIVING AT KSBN SHORTLY. DRY AIRMASS WAS EVIDENT WITH
RAINFALL FALLING OUT A CLOUD BASE OF 7000 TO 10000 FT. EXPECT THE
THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE DURING THE DAY BUT STILL ONLY
WORTHY OF INHERITED VCSH MENTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER
UPDATE...FISHER


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