Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 271025
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
625 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A
WARM FRONT...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FUNNELING BACK IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
EMERGE/AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL
AREA IN DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS STRONG TROP
UNDULATION...WHICH WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS NOTICEABLE
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE A DRY ONE GIVEN NORTHWEST
DISPLACEMENT OF LEAD LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ON LLJ NOSE THROUGH THE NORTHERN/WESTERN LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FILTERED SUNSHINE AND DEEPER MIXING IN
GUSTY WARM SECTOR THIS AFTN STILL ON TARGET TO YIELD HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S (15-20F ABOVE NORMAL) AS 850 MB TEMPS PUSH MID TEENS
IN THERMAL RIDGE.

THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SHOWER/ISO THUNDER CHANCES (MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
69 CORRIDOR) AS HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD AN EXPANDING
MOISTENING THETA-E RIDGE AND HELP BREAK CAP. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BLOSSOM TOWARD DAYBREAK INTO WESTERN HALF OF FA ALONG A
TRAILING COLD FRONT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A CONSOLIDATING ~110
KNOT UPPER JET NOSE INTO THE LOWER LAKES...WITH 1.20" PLUS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WARRANTING A
POP/QPF INCREASE WESTERN ZONES 06-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

BROAD/ELONGATED SFC TROUGH DOWNSTREAM POTENT SW ACRS NRN MT WILL
BECOME MUCH BTR DEFINED SHRT TERM AS WAVE AMPLIFIES SEWD INTO NRN WI
BY TUE AFTN. TRAILING CDFNT WHILE INITIALLY QUITE XPCD TO LIGHT UP
LATER TONIGHT AND SWEEP EWD QUICKLY ON TUE. PER TIGHT 00Z BASED
MODEL CONSENSUS MADE SIG TEMPORAL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX TUE OTRWS
REMAINDER OF FCST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PRIMARY HIGHLITE OF THE PD IS RTN OF MUCH COOLER WX FRI-SAT AS
SECONDARY SW DIGS THROUGH BASE OF LEAD TROUGH LT WEEK. HWVR ALL MED
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SOME DEGREE HAD BACKED WELL OFF PRIOR WWD/DEEPER
SOLUTIONS ALOFT OVR THE LAKES SUGGESTING A SHALLOWER/BRIEFER THERMAL
TROUGH LOCALLY. REGARDLESS MODERATION BACK TO AT OR ABV NORMAL SEEN
BY SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...OUTSIDE OF LOW PR0BABILITY FOR A BRIEF
MVFR CIG AROUND TAF ISSUANCE AS 900-700 MB MOISTURE GRADIENT LIFTS
THROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A SFC WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
VEER SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THIS WARM FRONT WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS. A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT TO NEAR KSBN BY 12Z TUE. INCREASING LIFT
AND AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN CHANCES AND POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS TO MAINLY KSBN LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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