Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIWX 260850
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
450 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY ABOUT MIDDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION MAY END WITH A BIT OF SNOW...PRIMARILY IN FAR
NORTHEAST INDIANA...EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAPIDLY INCREASING SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER SWRN OH LIKELY
SIGNALING RAPID NERLY ENERGY TRANSFER ALONG FGEN BOUNDARY AS DEEP
POSI TILTED LATITUDINAL TROF WITH ACTIVE SRN PLAINS PVU FOLD
CONTS EWD PROGRESSION TODAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS OVERDONE IN
REGARDS TO INITIAL LOW LEVEL TW/DPS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SUCCINCT TW
COLLAPSE. FAVOR LATER ITERATIONS OF RAPID UPDATE CYCLES THAT HAVE
CONTD TO DELAY AND/OR SUGGEST MARGINAL TW PROFILES LATER THIS AM
FOR PD OF MIXED RASN AS PRECIP ENDS. STRONGEST MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS E-SE OF CWA BY 15 UTC. THIS WILL LEAVE A
RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY ACCUM...PRIMARILY
LT ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS IN NERN QUARTER CWA ON GRASSY
AREAS/RAISED DECKS...WITH GROUND/PAVEMENT TEMPS REMAINING AOA
FZG AND WET...TO FOSTER AS LEAST A CONCURRENT PARTIAL MELT.
MINIMAL THERMAL RECOVERY AS LOW LEVEL CAA DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY.
CONTD TOKEN MENTION OF LK INDUCED CHC FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LK MI
TONIGHT AS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS PUSH INTO THE MID TEENS. LARGE
SCALE DVM AND DRY AIRMASS TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE
EVENT AT MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

STILL NOT ABLE TO ESCAPE THE COLD WEATHER PATTERN AS YET ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL EXTEND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS PERIOD.
THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY TRENDED DOWN OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...AND NOW ARE NEAR THE 97TH PERCENTILES FOR THE COLDEST
HIGHS AND LOWS FOR THESE DATES. THE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AND
ARE SUPPORTED BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF...ALONG WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. RETAINED SOME LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES FRIDAY WITH DELTA T VALUES BETWEEN 15C AND 20C ALONG
WITH A REASONABLE LAKE FETCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE HIGH ZONAL AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. IN THE
INTERIM...EXPANDED THE TIMING OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THERMAL
THRESHOLDS WERE STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL...SO KEPT A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

EARLY AM PRECIP WITHIN MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND WELL NORTH OF
SFC FNTL ZONE THAT IS LAID OUT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ACTIVE
FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING NEWD FROM ARKLATEX. DEEPEST SATURATION AND
LOWEST DOMINANT CIGS THIS AM...FM KFWA-KLAF SWD. WARM WETBULB
PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN AS DOMINANT PTYPE...THOUGH PD OF
MIXED TRANSITION NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...AS PRECIP BEGINS
EWD ACCELERATION WITH SFC LOW PUSHING INTO SWRN PA BY 18 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.