Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 151745
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
145 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NEAR RECORD AND RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH READINGS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND POSSIBLY COLDER IN SOME AREAS.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DROP INTO THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR AIDING IN SCT-NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING WAS EXITING THE REGION. OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING. HOWEVER..WITH HEATING STARTING
UPSTREAM...STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED FOR RAPID CU DEVELOPMENT
WITH THIS EXPANDING SE ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO THE AREA. SINCE
SNOWSHOWERS WERE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES DESPITE LOW LEVEL
MSTR BEING POOR...CONCERNED THAT AT LEAST FLURRIES MAY STILL
IMPACT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING SUBSIDES AND
CLOUD COVER DECREASES. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF FLURRIES INTO LATE AFTERNOON.

WINDS HAVE BEGAN TO PICK UP SOMEWHAT AS THE HEATING HAS ALSO
ALLOWED FOR MIXING OF SOME STRONGER WINDS IN LOWER LEVELS. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS THE MAIN STORY TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW ALONG AN
ACTIVE MID LEVEL FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK. SNOW TOTALS ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES GENERALLY 1-3"
EXPECTED HERE WITH ROADS MAINLY WET FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EXPECTED TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF A
CONSOLIDATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLURRIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON GIVEN CYCLONIC NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE
AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THERMAL TROUGH.
ALSO... NORTHERLY BL WINDS, DELTA T`S IN THE UPPER TEENS, AND
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS UP INTO THE DGZ HAS ALLOWED A DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF
THIS WRITING (07Z). THIS FEATURE MAY CLIP OUR FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA
COUNTIES (PORTER/STARKE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BEFORE STRONG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERWHELMS.

HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF TROUGH WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED. A PERIOD OF OPTIMAL
LONGWAVE LOSS WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

                                   FWA            SBN
APRIL 15 RECORD COLD HIGH TEMP     37 (1928)      35 (1907)
APRIL 15 FORECAST HIGH TEMP        37             37

APRIL 16 RECORD LOW TEMP           24 (1935)      22 (1935)
APRIL 16 FORECAST LOW TEMP         23             24

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA WED AND
THURS AS EASTERN CONUS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STOUT MIDLEVEL
RIDGING AND MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS TEMPORARILY SHUNTED
NORTHWARD. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER AND
INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. CORRESPONDING THERMAL TROUGH WILL
EXIT IN SIMILAR FASHION WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ROUGHLY 0C BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND 4C BY THURSDAY. MIXING DEPTHS MAY NOT BE QUITE
THAT HIGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S UNDER JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH INCREASED WAA AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL
PUSHING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN VORT MAX IS FINALLY DRAWN SOUTH BY APPROACHING
PACIFIC JET STREAK. MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
AND SYNOPTIC CVA FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK/DISJOINTED ON SEVERAL RECENT
MODEL RUNS. WILL THEREFORE HOLD WITH JUST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY
BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LARGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN CU FIELD REMAINING THROUGH
LATER AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED FLURRIES OR VRY LGT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT FLGT
CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...FISHER


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