Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 120548
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
148 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 644 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

ASIDE FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

FIRST TRUE PUSH OF DRY/COOL FALL-LIKE AIR CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
STORY TONIGHT-FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL NNW FLOW VEERS MORE NERLY WITH
TIME IN RESPONSE TO SPRAWLING CANADIAN SFC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. EXPANSIVE STRATOCU DECK TRAPPED WITHIN
STRONG POST-FRONTAL INVERSION (SEE 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS) HAS HELD
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TODAY...APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEPT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT-TOMORROW WITH PRIMARY FCST CHANGE TO INCREASE SKY COVER AND
LESSEN DIURNAL TEMP RANGE. OTHERWISE...MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SCT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THIS
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT GIVEN 13-15C 850 MB DELTA T`S/NORTHERLY
FLOW...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE AND CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REASONS FOR HOLDING SHY OF A MEASURABLE
POP.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN TO SETTLE IN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO ONTARIO BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS IT DOES
FORCING WILL INCREASE AND SQUEEZE OUT WHAT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO
BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE LAKE WHERE ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND +3 C YIELDING DELTA T`S IN THE UPPER TEENS. BEST CHANCE
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT EXPANSION ON LIKELY POPS INLAND
INTO THE REST OF FAR LOWER MI. HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES SAT AM AS LINGERING MSTR...LIFT AND LAKE INFLUENCE ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY WITH AREAS
OF DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN. FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS LOWS DIP TOWARDS 40 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

COLDEST AIR WILL SHIFT NE QUICKLY WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT GENERAL NW
FLOW WILL REMAIN SO NO MAJOR CHANGES FORTHCOMING IN THE PATTERN. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN MON INTO MON NGT WITH SLGT CHC/CHC
POPS WARRANTED FOR WHAT WILL BE LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AT BEST. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

LOW LEVEL WINDS TO CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE WEST OF KSBN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES AND PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO PERSIST ACROSS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO HIGHER END MVFR OR VFR
IS EXPECTED TOWARD MIDDAY FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT SYSTEM TO
WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EXPECTED IN THE 06Z-10Z TIMEFRAME SATURDAY. GIVEN TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KSBN...PERHAPS MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AT KFWA. WILL KEEP KFWA DRY FOR THE 06Z
TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A MENTION FOR THE 12Z TAFS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO TREND KSBN BACK TO MID RANGE MVFR CIGS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


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