Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 202103
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
403 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THE SUN...HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE THE
MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SEVERELY LIMITED OVERALL INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS RESULTING IN ONLY SPORADIC
REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PREVIOUS HEADLINE AREAS. THIS
IS DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND A NORMALLY FAVORABLE FETCH.
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS INCREASED AND ANYONE FORTUNATE ENOUGH
TO GET UNDER ONE WILL SEE A RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BUT LITTLE OVER ALL ACCUMULATION. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS
WAS CONSIDERING DROPPING ALL HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL OPT TO DOWNGRADE THE WARNING
TO AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH LOCAL 1 TO AT MOST 2 INCH ACCUMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVEN END UP TOO HIGH IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
AND LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH READING
AWAY FROM ANY CLOUD COVER DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA ALLOWING WINDS TO FINALLY BECOME MORE SW AND MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTER IN AS WELL AS LOWERING INVERSION HGTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE DEMISE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUNSHINE TRIES TO DOMINATE. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO MOVE INTO SW AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR LIQUID PRECIP INTO THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE MID TO
MAYBE UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FEW CHANGES AND CONTINUED FORECAST FOCUS ON WEEKEND PTYPE/AMOUNTS.
CONTINUED CONCERN THAT EMPHATIC WARMING/DEEPENING THERMAL/WET BULB
PROFILES ALOFT TO PRECEDE BULK OF INITIAL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH CONTINUED HIGH 950-900 MB LAYER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO GNAW AT LEADING EDGE...KEEPING
BULK OF LIQUID HYDROMETEORS MOSTLY ALOFT. CANT RULE OUT MINOR ZR
EVENT AT ONSET...THOUGH HAVE LOCKED DOWN TEMPORAL WINDOW TO
PRIMARILY 09-12 UTC SAT WINDOW PER CONSENSUS ARW/NMM FOR WRN HALF
CWA...AS WARM ADVECTION SURGE PER VEERED STRENGTHENING PROFILES
APPEAR SYNOPTICALLY ASSURED. ATTM ANTICIPATE ICING TO BE SPOTTY AND
BRIEF IN NATURE WITH OVERALL PROBABILITIES MUTED OVER EGREGIOUSLY
WET BLEND. BETTER/RENEWED MOISTURE SURGE WITH WRN TRACKED SYSTEM
LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS ESPCLY SUN/SUN NIGHT.
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SUPPORT WITH SLOWING EWD
FRONTAL PROGRESS AS SYSTEM LIFTS FROM NERN TX SUN, AND INTO MID/UPR
OH VLY SUN NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DLAY OF DEEPER POST FRONTAL CAA RESULTING
IN LATER TIMING OF SHIFT TO RASN MIX NOW TO MON AFTN...AND
EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY MON NIGHT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
LAGGED LAKE AGGREGATE TROF AND MODERATE THERMAL INSTABILITY
SUPPORT WITH LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TO UPPER TEENS SUGGEST CONTD HIGH
LES POPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. HEREAFTER GFS LARGELY DISCOUNTED/OUT OF
PHASE WITH GFS WRT LONGWAVE PATTERN. STRONG EPAC RIDGING PER ECMWF
WITH PLAINS TROFFING PORTENDING OF OHIO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS
FRONTOGENESIS AND POTNL SNOW EVENT WITHIN REALM OF POSSIBILITIES
RAMPING UPWARDS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AT LEAST SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

KSBN STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO MISS THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL INTO THIS EVENING AS FLOW GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN. RADAR/SFC OBS WAS SHOWING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE AIRPORT AT THIS TIME.
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST COVERAGE MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MINOR SHIFT IN THE FLOW TO ALLOW PERIODIC
MVFR EXCURSIONS AT THE SITE. KFWA WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ANY LAKE EFFECT AT KSBN SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH NO FLGT
ISSUES EXPECTED BY MORNING.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...FISHER


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