Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 282215
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
615 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected in the
area this afternoon as a weak upper air disturbance moves through.
The shower activity will diminish tonight. A weak cold front will
move across the area Sunday bringing a renewed chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Fair weather is expected for Memorial Day as
high pressure builds in behind the front. Temperatures will remain
above normal with highs in the lower to middle 80s and lows in the
lower to middle 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

As was the case yda evening...lack of sfc based instability within
poorly defined theta-e ridge alg w/warm temps aloft and lackluster
forcing curtailing more erstwhile conv dvlpmnt. As such and in
reflection of nr term CAMS guidance will truncate extent of prior
pops overnight. Upstream arc of vigorous convn acrs wrn IL will
decay w/ewd extent yet still poses a isold shra threat aft 03Z far
west. Otrws remainder of fcst on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Warm/moist conditions and low chances for showers/storms will
remain the weather story through Sunday afternoon as the region
remains in warm sector. Low chances (20-40%) for widely scattered
showers/isolated thunder into the early evening mainly confined to
northeast IN and northwest OH where nearly 1000 j/kg of SBCAPE is
available for a weak upper wave lifting northeast within mid-level
theta-e plume/LLJ core downstream of a well defined shortwave
tracking into the Upper Midwest. Mainly dry/mild otherwise into
tonight with expectations for convection that fires late afternoon
across Iowa/western Illinois on eastern fringe of Upper Midwest
low pressure system to weaken/fall apart before reaching Indiana.

The northern stream finally gets involved enough to kick
open/weakening Upper Midwest shortwave east into the Great Lakes on
Sunday. This feature will force a cold front southeast into the area
Sunday afternoon bringing additional low chances for convection.
However, there will once again be substantial limiting factors for
more widespread/organized development along this feature as deeper
moisture, more favorable upper level support, and pre-frontal
trough likely exits east by peak heating. There is the potential
for moderate destabilization pre-frontal, but only around 20-25
knots of 0-6 km bulk shear suggest an isolated strong-severe storm
at best if storms initiate.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

System will exit off to the east in flattened flow leaving weak
boundary over or just south of the local area by Monday
afternoon. Previous model cycles were more aggressive in forcing
cold front south of the area while some of the new 12z guidance
hangs up front/instability gradient over far west/southwest zones.
With lack of any upper level support, drying, and model
differences will not introduce low PoPs for mid-late afternoon
convection Monday. Ridging/drying will likely hang on into early
Tuesday before warm/moist southwest flow becomes reestablished in
advance of the next PV anomaly modeled to drop east-southeast from
the Dakotas-Upper Midwest Wednesday to the Great Lakes by
Thursday-Friday. The best chance for showers/storms per last
several model cycles looks to be later Wednesday into Thursday
with the primary cold frontal passage. Otherwise, temperatures are
expected to remain above normal through Thursday, then trending
closer to normal thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Sct shra and a few ts expected to develop this aftn as a wk
shrtwv moves rapidly ne from the lwr/mid MS Valley across IN. A
little strong shrtwv expected to move fm w-e across the area
Sunday, but decreasing moisture in advance of the system supports
not adding shra/ts mention to tafs attm. Otrws, vfr conditions
should cont with moderately strong southerly flow grdly veering to
west on Sunday.


&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...JT


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