Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290459
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1259 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

YET ANOTHER RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL AID IN
KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL BE COOL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

QUICK GRID UPDATE TO BRING IN PRECIP FASTER INTO WESTERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY SW WHERE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING
IN. WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE TO CAT POPS IN THE SW THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT CURRENT COVERAGE AND MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST
THIS WILL THE FIRST OF 2 ROUNDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MAY
WAIT TILL LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL WATCH PRIOR TO MORNING
PACKAGE RELEASE AND SEE IF FURTHER INCREASE IN POPS NEEDED. DID
EXPAND SCT POPS FURTHER NORTH WHERE SHOWERS WERE POPPING HERE AND
THERE. FOR THE TIME BEING RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT WORRISOME IN
TERMS OF RENEWED FLOODING BUT SOME MODELS STILL SUGGEST HALF INCH
TO INCH RAINFALL BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AMPLIFIED/ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS DEPICTING CLOSED LOW OVER LK ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY RIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY...WHILE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL IOWA. LEAD SHORT WAVE ALREADY DRIVING CONVECTION E/SE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND TRAILING SHORT WAVE IS KICKING OFF
CONVECTION BACK UP IN E IA/S WI. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE DOING A
GOOD JOB OF PICKING UP ON BOTH FEATURES AND IS ALSO TRENDING
FARTHER SOUTH WITH SURFACE LOW TRACK. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD
ALIGNMENT WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHILE
LIFTING SLOWLY NE...WILL KEEP BASE OF TROF SUFFICIENTLY BROAD AND
TEND TO PREVENT NE CURVATURE OF SURFACE LOW. WILL TREND POP/WX
GRIDS TOWARD LATEST HRRR/RAP BY KEEPING FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS/QPF
IN SOUTHERN CWA WHILE NOT DISCOUNTING TRAILING SHORT WAVE AND ITS
IMPACT ON NORTHERN CWA. CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL
LIMIT ANY DIURNAL AIRMASS RECOVERY ON MONDAY RESULTING IN LIMITED
INSTABILITY/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AND SLOW RECOVER FROM
ONGOING FLOODING BUT NOT WORSEN IT...ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE JAY
COUNTY WHERE OVER 1/2 IS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A CONTINUATION OF THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH DIVERGE BY DAY
5 WITH THE GFS DRIER ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
WILL GO WITH A BLEND DURING THE PERIOD. PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO
AN END BRIEFLY MON NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION. ANOTHER WAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUING
PRECIP CHANCES ON TUE. AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIGHTER
THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON SAT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AID IN SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT TUE. A SERIES OF UPPER
WAVES IN NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF THE REST
OF WEEK BRINGING SCTD PRECIP MOST DAYS THOUGH WED THROUGH THU
NIGHT APPEAR TO BE DRIER. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED MOST
PLACES... EXPECT LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON AREA
RIVERS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES BEING MADE TO THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO TO ADD
MENTION OF VFR SHOWERS AT KSBN AS SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TRYING
TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BUT STILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ALL SIGNS POINT
TOWARDS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY KFWA BUT NOT WORTHY OF TAF MENTION
WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...FISHER


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