Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 270807
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
407 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

STRONG UPR RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GRTLKS TO THE SERN U.S. THIS
MORNING WITH A CUT-OFF LOW OVER SRN IA/NRN MO. SHRTWV OVER SASK
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO QUEBEC/ONTARIO TONIGHT KICKING GRTLKS RIDGE
EASTWARD AND SHEARING OUT IA/MO CUT-OFF LOW. SOME CIRRUS STREAMING
NORTH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO OUR AREA ATTM SHOULD CONT
TODAY/TNGT BUT IT APPEARS RATHER THIN ON IR IMAGERY AND DOUBT IF IT
WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON INSOLATION/TEMPERATURES. PATCHY RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOG BEING REPORTED ACROSS NE PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
GRADIENT WEAKEST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPEST DUE TO TRAJECTORIES
OFF LAKES HURON/ERIE... SHOULD PERSIST PAST DAYBREAK... DISSIPATING
BY LATE MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT COMPARED TO
PAST 24HRS AS STAGNANT AIRMASS PERSISTS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN
THE U70S/L80S ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE L-M50S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT AT LEAST FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST PROVIDES
AN EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND A TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. AN UPPER WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GRTLKS MON INTO
TUE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP REMAINS NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO DIVERGE BEYOND MIDWEEK SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE
IN THE ONGOING FCST. AS THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
FCST AREA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR TSTMS THU INTO FRI. THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE QUICKER IN SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO NW INDIANA THU THAN
THAT OF THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP WHAT IS IN THE CURRENT FCST. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF UNTIL THE END OF FCST PERIOD
WHEN TEMPS LOWERS TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 132 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN INDIANA WITH LIGHT E-NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW. EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG WILL FORM OVER THE AREA AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOWER OVER NE INDIANA DUE
TO FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE/HURON EARLIER TODAY. THUS, CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS FCST CALLING FOR IFR AT SBN AND LIFR AT FWA BY DAYBREAK.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY 13-14Z WITH JUST CIRRUS FOR CLOUDS
TODAY/THIS EVE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...JT


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