Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 210620

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
216 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Warm and mainly dry conditions are expected through Friday. There
is a very small chance for a shower or thunderstorm across mainly
lower Michigan late tonight and again Wednesday night. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the lower 60s while highs on
Wednesday climb back into the lower and middle 80s. Cooler weather
is expected by the weekend into next week with more seasonable


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Diffuse cold front across central portions of CWA this afternoon and
slowly sinking south. Modest instability has developed from central
to southwest near this boundary. An area of CU has formed as well
and there remains a very small chance of a shower or small
thunderstorm through early evening. However...hires guidance still
indicates little development and would put any chances in the 5 to
10 percent range for any single location so will continue with a dry
forecast into this evening.

Next focus is on any residual convective activity from overnight
development upstream diving into northwest area late tonight. Best
forcing and focus of low level jet remains to our northwest with
decaying trend anticipated similar to what occurred last night. This
will need to be watched but expect any activity would not reach this
area until after 12z and guidance continues to wash precipitation
out as it nears the Lake Michigan shoreline near this time. Have
stayed with persistence for now and kept it dry across the far
northwest. Will likely see more debris high cirrus tomorrow morning
but should thin by afternoon. This may keep temps just a few degrees
cooler but lower to middle 80s still seems reasonable.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Decaying convective activity and how far into CWA it will reach...if
at all...remains about the only concern in the first part of the
long term period. Models continue to show several clusters of
convection developing upstream where deeper moisture transport
resides and diving these systems east southeast with decaying
trends. Will have a slight chance over the far north for Wednesday
night with some guidance indicating a little further southward push
than previous complexes.

Very warm mid September conditions still expected through Friday
before a weak cold front sags south and brings more seasonable but
still mild 70s for the weekend into early next week. With the run to
run model variability have stayed close to superblend inits which
are not too different from previous runs with regards to chances for
precipitation with this front as well as another front early next


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Wk/ill defined frontal zone will refocus through cntrl lower MI this
afternoon northward of surface ridge centered just north of the OH
river. Expect surface winds to veer southerly by mid morning and
remain blo 10 kts. Otherwise vfr conditions through the period.




SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley

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