Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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653
FXUS63 KIWX 260559
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
159 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1029 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

A weak upper level disturbance will continue to interact with an
unstable air mass across the area to produce scattered showers
and thunderstorms through the early portions of the overnight
hours, especially along and north of Route 6. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible again Thursday afternoon
and Thursday night. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s with highs
Thursday in the lower and middle 80s. It will remain warm and
humid through the Memorial Day weekend with chances for showers
and thunderstorms continuing, though most of the weekend should be
dry.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

An upper level short wave working across the western Great Lakes
has aided in shower/thunderstorm development across northeast
Illinois/northwest Indiana late afternoon/early evening. An
eastward progressing axis of deeper moisture will continue to
build across western portions of the forecast area this evening,
although instability magnitudes will start to be tempered somewhat
by slow boundary layer cooling. Will continue to carry high
chance/likely pops across the far northwest this evening, with
better chances possibly extending across south central lower
Michigan during the late evening hours. Passage of this wave
should result in diminishing coverage of precip overnight and
confidence in any additional rain/storms after 06Z is on the low
side and will maintain inherited slight chance/low chance PoPs
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

While ridging conts to dampen acrs the area...lack of discernible
forcing and as yet poor mstr rtn hampering any notable precip
dvlpmnt acrs the wrn lakes this aftn. MCV advg acrs nrn IA sprtg
an arc of isold-sct convn fm ern MN into ne IA and the primary ftr
of note shrt term as secondary MCV noted acrs se MO slides ewd
through srn IN/nrn KY. 12Z ILX raob alludes to a general hostile
environment aloft w/residual warm air in place although some
cooling does take place further west twd DVN ahd of apchg mid lvl
trough. Thus suspect newd advng ll theta-e ridge and wk ll flw
will fail to produce any convn this aftn and have dropped all pop
mention sans extreme west ahd of apchg mid lvl trough. Srn spoke
of btr low-mid lvl forcing shld graze nw zones this evening and
may yet sputter further se within modest theta-e ridge in place
hwvr any sense of a consensus model solution sorely lacking. As
such and in light of 12Z CAMS trends will sway fm prior likely
pops overnight as primary focus aloft shifts up acrs nrn WI.

In wake of this sys...largely subsident wrly ll flw overspreads the
area on Thu and in light of 12Z mos guidance/trends fail to see any
justification to carry a pop mention.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

General wwd positioning of large scale upr trough and attendant
sfc fntl zone points to lackluster chcs for organized rainfall
through the pd. No doubt upstream convn w/potential downstream MCS
influences complicate the picture...hwvr given stgr mean flw and
deeper ll mstr plume remains well west invof of sfc fntl zone
through the cntrl plains...it would be careless to embrace
derived blended guidance pops which are clearly way overdone. Thus
as yda will again cap any one pd to a low chc mention at this
point. More fvrbl chcs may arise twd sun aftn/eve pending ewd
extent and timing of robust wave lifting up through the midwest.

Beyond that upr ridge cntrd ovr the wrn atl xpcd to expand nwd
through dy7 and likely to cap off the local environment as new mean
troughing dvlps through the wrn US. Otrws seasonably warm and humid
conds xpcd through much of the pd.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

An upper level system was moving across lower Michigan with
showers and storms staying just north of South Bend. Some
additional showers and even an isolated storm are possible early
this morning, but forcing appears to weak to support much in the
way of convection over Indiana. Low level moisture was increasing
with some MVFR clouds forming along the Illinois and Indiana
border. Some of these lower clouds may develop or spread into the
terminals. For now, favored a 2-3 hour period of MVFR visibilities
toward daybreak. Left lower cloud ceilings out for now, although
a lower ceiling is possible and may need to be added later in the
TAFs.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Skipper


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