Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 280832

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
332 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Similar weather pattern expected today through Tuesday as upper
ridge remains over much of the central CONUS with the jet stream
well removed to the north. The forecast area will be characterized
by a continued moist and weakly capped airmass, gradually diurnally
destabilizing each day, owing to scattered convection within an
environment of modest instability (MUCAPE < 2000 J/kg) and deep
layer shear (0-6 km < 20 kts). Thunderstorms are not expected to
become severe and be relatively short-lived, with gusty winds and
locally brief heavy rainfall. Most convection will dissipate shortly
after sunset with the loss of instability and boundary layer
decoupling. Therefore, best chances for rainfall will be during the
afternoon and early evening hours, with an overall lull during the
nocturnal hours. With the lack of strong forcing and identifiable
boundaries, spatial predictability remains ambiguous. Temperatures
will be similar each day, with highs in the middle to upper 80s and
lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

The pattern amplifies by Wednesday as an upper trough digs into the
northeast US. The remnants of a cutoff low currently over Arizona is
expected to move into the area on Wednesday, concomitantly with the
approach of a surface cold front dropping south-southwest associated
with the aforementioned upper trough. These appreciable features
will lead to an increased chance for scattered to numerous
thunderstorms across the area Wednesday through Thursday morning.
With increasing shear and high available moisture, some potential
for heavy rainfall and localized flooding will exist. Temperatures
will be coolest during this forecast period on Thursday into
Thursday night as cooler and drier air advects into the area upon
northeasterly surface winds. The front will gradually retreat back
into the area Friday into the weekend, with chances for
thunderstorms possible.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

VFR conditions and dry for the rest of the night into Sunday
morning...except for patchy MVFR fog likely forming across northern
MO during the pre-dawn hours.

Isolated convection possible over the region between mid afternoon
and early evening. Locally heavy rains under any of the stronger
convective cores.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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