Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 160009
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
609 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 PM CST FRI DEC 15 2017

The region will move into a split-flow regime with the northern
branch jet moving across the Northern Plains and the southern branch
jet moving over the southeast and combining with the northern branch
jet over the east coast. Locally, this provides the area with
quiet and warm weather as shortwave ridging builds east. The
normal high for the Kansas City area is about 40 degree right now.
Highs Saturday may be near 60 degrees. Gusty southwesterly winds
are also expected and this may result in an elevated fire danger
across the area as afternoon humidity values fall into the 30 to
40 percent range.

By Sunday morning a weak upper shortwave trough will lift northeast
into the region. This will bring us our best chance for
precipitation in the next week as widespread light rainfall spreads
northward throughout the forecast area Sunday morning. Rainfall
amounts look fairly light with this wave with about a quarter inch
of rain expected in our south. In northern Missouri, only a few
hundredths of an inch of rain is expected. It`s possible, though I
think unlikely, that some wintry mix develops in far northwestern
MO Sunday morning. It really will be a timing game between
overnight low temperatures and how quickly precipitation makes it
that far north. I think that it`s more likely that temperatures
will be at or above freezing by the time precipitation starts and
should be just a cold rain in that part of the forecast area.

Through the middle of the week, upper level ridging will spread
across the area. This will result in continued warm and dry
conditions through Wednesday night. This may even persist into
Thursday but it will depend on the timing of a very strong cold
front that will plow through the region some time between Thursday
afternoon and Friday. A slower arrival of the front would result in
warmer temperatures Thursday and likely another dry day. After the
front passes through, Friday looks much cooler. Highs right now are
forecast to be in the low to mid 30s. But that will likely be colder
as timing in the front becomes clearer. It`s very possible highs
next Friday won`t make it out of the 20s. There remains a chance for
wintry weather to occur in the forecast area with this system. But
while models have decent agreement on the timing of the front, there
is much variability with the placement and amount of precipitation
as well as the track of the surface and upper level features. In
short, much can and will change.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 514 PM CST FRI DEC 15 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period with the
primary concern to aviation interests being the SW winds that are
expected to pickup overnight. These winds will increase through
the day on Saturday, with some gusts possible, especially in the
IXD area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...lg



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