Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 132052
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 252 PM CST TUE FEB 13 2018

Main focus in the short term will be drizzle/stratus and perhaps
some fog potential tonight as moisture advects into the region.
Winds will remain sustained at 5 kts or above, which should keep
visibilities from tanking, but will also support the strong
advection of higher surface Td`s to near overnight temperatures.
The best potential for drizzle or very light rain showers will be
in central MO, where isentropic lift and thus forcing for precip
will be a bit stronger.

Cloud cover could be a limiting factor to temperatures tomorrow,
but models differ strongly in how persistent stratus will be from
mid-morning onward. The GFS and NAM both show their typical
tendencies with low-level moisture (NAM more persistent with
moisture, GFS mixing out more quickly), so is difficult to
determine which is right and how well temperatures will be able to
rise during the late morning/early afternoon hours. Have trended
down temperatures just a few degrees in central MO where the low
clouds may be more persistent, and will just watch trends over-
night and into tomorrow morning.

Frontal passage Thursday is still expected during the afternoon,
which will allow temperatures to rise into the 60s to possibly
near 70 degrees before fropa occurs. Drizzle and low clouds are
again possible in the morning, but should mix out and allow for at
least scattered sunshine ahead of the front. A few showers are
possible along the front, but the best coincidence of moisture/
lift will occur just south of the CWA, and have kept PoPs low to
nominal in all but central MO. Colder air will filter in over-
night, pushing highs on Friday to below-normal readings in the
30s.

A quick recovery to more seasonable temperatures will follow the
rest of the weekend, then the early week forecast for next week
remains muddy with multiple changes to time/position of the
eventual cold frontal passage and its associated upper trough.
Earlier runs of the GFS and EC had the surface front through on
Monday morning, making the last day of the extended holiday
weekend a damp and chilly day, but recent runs of the EC again
slow the frontal progression. Will continue to monitor and allow
"wintry mix" to be mentioned in the extended until better refined.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST TUE FEB 13 2018

Stratus currently working its way northward along the KS/MO border
may impact KC area TAF sites before pushing off to the east this
afternoon, possibly resulting in 3-4 kft ceilings for a several
hour period. Have TEMPO`ed this possibility to account for the
uncertainty in how far west the deck persists as it continues
north. Winds will remain out of the south this afternoon, mainly
at speeds less than 12 kts. Patchy fog and perhaps some low
stratus may develop as early as 09z at all TAF sites (particularly
KIXD) and should begin to mix out by mid-morning. Should the fog/
stratus look more persistent than currently anticipated, will
lower cigs/vsbys with the next TAF issuance.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin



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