Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 220511
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1211 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014
Issued at 417 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
Tonight - Thursday:
This period will bring an end to our 8+ day dry spell. Weak mid
level warm air advection could generate some sprinkles very late
tonight and Wednesday morning. Much better rain chances arrive late
Upper ridge axis from MN through east TX will translate eastward
while progressive shortwave over the intermountain region lifts
northeast and through the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Surface
ridge will give way to a gradual shift to a southerly flow by
Wednesday night. Increasing moist warm air advection aided by a
disorganized disturbance now over West TX will combine to generate a
band of convection which will translate from west to east across the
CWA beginning late Wednesday night and ending Thursday afternoon.
Weak elevated instability, MUCAPES < 400J/kg, will likely support a
few embedded thunderstorms.
A weak frontal boundary will accompany the convection but will mark
mark nothing more than a wind shift from south to southwest.
Thursday temperatures will be defined by amount of residual cloud
cover and expect slightly warmer than average temperatures.
Friday - Sunday:
The upper ridge will quickly rebuild from the Rockies into the
Plains with a corresponding influx of warmer h8 temperatures of +14C
to +18C threatening to send max temperatures to 80 over western MO.
See no chance of precipitation during this period.
Monday - Tuesday:
Medium range models are on the same track for the start of next week
with a well-defined upper trough tracking east through the Plains
and MS Valley. Model trends seem reasonable enough to raise PoPs.
This system will have a stronger cold front associated with it and
the post frontal airmass will likely support below average
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Although chances for some very light rain at the terminals is
starting to shape up have kept VFR conditions through the entire
forecast period. Hi-res models indicate very spotty showery activity
near the aviation terminals, but forecast soundings indicate a rather
deep saturated later, which should indicate a good possibility for
some light rain. Not confident in the least that any rain will cause
visibility restrictions as it sould remain very light. Cloud deck
should be around 3-4 kft, so will flirt with MVFR CIGs. Expect rain
chances to quickly end by noon, with the cloud deck perhaps becoming
more scattered through the day.