Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 202347
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
547 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 357 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows us a highly meridional flow
dominating the center of the country as a pronounced shortwave
trough transits the Nation. The trough opened up the Gulf Sunday and
today, helping advect moisture north which resulted in some rain
today. But, this moisture will not last long as dry air will quickly
advect back in starting Tuesday; and with the seasonally dry late
winter season upon us, fire weather issues will likely be a problem
later this week. For more information please see the FIRE WEATHER
section of the Forecast Discussion.

For the general forecast...the trough moving across the country
today will pinch off as it moves east into the Southeast,
allowing a more zonal to slightly southwest flow to prevail for
the rest of the work week. This will bring dry air rushing back
across eastern Kansas and Missouri starting Tuesday. Temperatures
will also be on a run of abnormally warm readings thanks to the
southwest flow, with Tuesday and Wednesday both expected to see
temperatures well in the 70s. Temperatures will begin to retreat a
little starting Thursday as a weak shortwave trough moves across
the northern Plains and sends a cold front laying out across far
northern Missouri early that morning. A second deeper trough,
moving out of the Four Corners region, will keep some focus on
the frontal boundary across far northern Missouri going into
Friday. This looks to bring a good amount of rain to areas north
of Kansas and Missouri. However, the trough moving out of the Four
Corners will also bring the cooler air south, with a temperatures
ranging from around 40 in northwest Missouri to almost 60 in
central Missouri Friday, and highs in the 40s and 50s Saturday and
Sunday. Additionally, there will be more chances for
precipitation over the weekend as the pattern flattens out into a
zonal flow and the main westerlies settle across the Central
Plains; and given the thermal profile over the weekend, some snow
may be possible.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 529 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017

Upper-level clouds currently streaming overhead will clear out
over the next few hours as a front pushes through. Much drier air
will filter in behind the front, which throws a wrench into
whether or not fog will develop by early tomorrow morning.
Indications are there that the terminals could see fog by Tuesday
morning but the question is the availability of LL moisture,
despite the little bit of rain that fell earlier today. By midday
tomorrow, look for clear skies. As for winds, southwesterly winds
early this evening will shift to the NW overnight behind the
front. By tomorrow, winds will become more westerly to south-
southwesterly.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Issued at 357 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017

Fire concerns will be the primary weather issues for Tuesday and
Wednesday as dry air moves in and temperatures warm well above
normal. Afternoon highs will range through the 70s both Tuesday and
Wednesday as a surface ridge slides in behind today`s trough. Mixing
under the ridge will be extensive, and given the dry air seen in
soundings just off the ground, thoughts are that boundary layer
mixing will allow humidity values to bottom out in the 20% range
both Tuesday and Wednesday, with some areas in far northwest
Missouri likely to see humidity values drop into the teens. These
humidity values are well within criteria for critical fire weather
conditions. However, surface winds will not be overly strong Tuesday
thanks to the surface ridge; but that could be different for
Wednesday when the surface ridge slides east allowing a tighter
pressure gradient to prevail, thus stronger winds. Currently,
Wednesday is looking like the worst fire weather day of the week
thus far.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...lg
Fire Weather...Cutter



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