Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211121

621 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Clouds are clearing out from north to south this morning with high
pressure building in from the northwest. Sun will provide a 10 to 15
degree warmup from yesterday but temperatures will still be about 10
degrees below average.

Warm air advection will spread into the region on Friday with the
surface high shifting eastward, although an accompanying increase in
moisture and isentropic ascent will usher in clouds and a few light
rain showers particularly across areas near and west of the KS/MO
state line. This will likely keep temperatures down into the 60s for
these areas while areas further east should rise into the 70s.
Saturday will see a better chance for scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two with continued isentropic lift and slightly
better moisture. None of this precipitation looks strong enough to
lead to any real flooding concerns and a lot of the day should be

Saturday night into Sunday will be the rainier/stormier period of
the Memorial Day weekend with the main upper trough approaching from
the west. Meridional flow throughout the troposphere could support
some training of north/south-oriented thunderstorm bands which could
lead to locally heavy rain and perhaps flooding concerns,
particularly across eastern KS into western MO. This continued
precipitation will likely result in poor lapse rates and low
instability, which combined with the lack of strong wind shear should
keep Sunday`s severe storm threat on the low side.

Forecast remains rather stormy heading into early next week with
several impulses embedded within broad southwest upper flow tracking
into the area. Warmer temperatures and higher instability could set
the stage for a few stronger storms during this time and additional
heavy rainfall.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Bulk of the overnight cloud cover is clearing out from north to
south, although there`s been some patchy fog/very low stratus
developing behind these clouds over northern Missouri. This patchy
low moisture is moving south and would be short lived if it does
impact a terminal. This will clear the area by 8 or 9 AM with
generally clear skies for the remainder of the day although it
wouldn`t be surprising to see a few cumulus develop later on with
bases around 4 or 5 kft.




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