Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KEAX 300010
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
710 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 301 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

A broad but positively tilted trough was noted on afternoon water
vapor imagery over Iowa. A weak upper jet streak, noted by drying on
the water vapor imagery was rounding the base of the trough. This
trough and associated jet streak is likely providing the vertical
lift to get a few showers and storms going in southeastern and south
central Nebraska. These should continue to move southeast with the
upper level lift and into the forecast area later this afternoon.
Weak instability and shear suggest this precipitation will diminish
with loss of diurnal heating. But the upper trough will be slow to
pass by the region so there may be enough upper level support to
allow showers and storms to last a little longer into the evening.

Tonight, as the pressure gradient weakens and winds become
light/calm, the potential for fog will increase. This looks more
likely across northern Missouri, but could spread to or south of the
Missouri River.

The front the moved through the region earlier, bringing much more
pleasant conditions today and Saturday, will lift northward through
the area as a warm front Saturday night and Sunday. This will bring
us our next good chance of rain from early Sunday morning into the
afternoon across our northern to eastern zones. While the threat of
severe storms looks very low, there may be some pockets of heavy
rain with moisture pooling along the frontal boundary as it lifts
northeastward.

By Monday, the region will be back under the influence of the upper
ridge with very warm temperatures aloft, deep mixing, and ample
humidity. At the moment it looks like temperatures will be in the
middle 90s with afternoon dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. This
combination yields heat index values in the 100 to 105 range through
at least Thursday. The only wrinkle to this is that each day, mainly
around the edges of the ridge which is along the north to
northeastern edge of the forecast area, temperatures will be very
close to the convective temperature. So there could be thunderstorms
that develop along the northern to eastern periphery of the forecast
area. Additionally, it`s likely there will be thunderstorm complexes
form well northwest of the area and track close to or into the
forecast area. Both of these scenarios look more likely to occur
Monday and Tuesday before the upper ridge really exerts its full
suppression on the area Wednesday and perhaps into Thursday. Thus, it
looks like Wednesday and Thursday will be the hottest days for next
week before some weakening of the upper high by late in the week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 706 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Expecting VFR conditions through the forecast period, with perhaps a
brief period of reduced visibility during the early morning hours pre
sunrise. With winds calm and skies generally clear there could be a
TEMPO period of MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions. The most likely terminal
for this fog/BR would be KSTJ, but KMCI and KIXD also have low end
fog probs. KMKC does not appear likely for any fog development.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Leighton


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.