Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 020515
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1215 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015
Issued at 402 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015
Tonight - Wednesday...
A thinning band of monsoonal moisture extending from northern Mexico
through the Central Plains will shift ever so slightly east tonight
and Wednesday and at the very least increase the cloud cover across
the northwest portion of the CWA later tonight/Wednesday. In
addition, a band of scattered elevated convection is expected to form
from eastern NE into north central KS in response to a shortwave
trough currently approaching central NE and some additional support
via isentropic ascent on the 310-315K surfaces. The operational
models are in good agreement with this feature and QPF with some of
tonight`s convection grazing far northwest MO.
Residual cloud cover over the northwest CWA could knock off a few
degrees on max temperatures. All depends on how fast clouds thin
out. Otherwise, with no change in airmass expect highs to be very
similar to todays (Tuesday).
Thursday - Sunday...
A pretty blase period with a deepening upper trough over the western
U.S. sharpening the upper ridge over the central U.S. This will
delay the arrival of any surface front as well as maintain a steady
stream of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as well as holding the
hot air back to our west. So, persistence will be the best forecast.
Sunday Night - Tuesday...
Best chance for more widespread, albeit still scattered in coverage,
convection resides within this period. Models have accelerated the
arrival of the activity with late Sunday night through Monday night
the favored time. Yep right on cue for Labor Day. The aforementioned
western U.S. trough opens up and lifts northeast, passing well to
the north of the CWA Sunday night/Monday. The falling h5 heights
should allow a cold front to drop south but have to wonder with this
system being so far north if the front will stall in or just south
of the CWA, thereby maintaining rain chances into Tuesday. As, we
get closer to the event no doubt PoPs will be adjusted upwards for a
portion of this forecast period.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015
Showers and storms have already begun to develop across NW Missouri,
slowly making their way eastward. STJ will be the terminal most
likely impacted out of the four terminals, warranting the inclusion
of a TEMPO mention for this TAF issuance. The storms though should
remain relatively low-impact to STJ with no significant reductions in
visbys or ceilings. Less certain of any activity making it to MCI but
have included a VCTS mention nonetheless since storms are anticipated
to come fairly close to the MCI terminal area. MKC and IXD should
remain out of the way of any direct or vicinity impacts. The
convection will dissipate and clear out by midday Wednesday, leaving
VFR conditions to continue through the rest of this TAF period.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will increase as sunrise approaches,
likely in the 10-15 knot range throughout much of the day at all four
terminals, slackening around sunset Wednesday.