Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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434
FXUS63 KEAX 191716
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1116 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 325 AM CST SUN NOV 19 2017

Dry and quiet weather expected through the next 7 days. Surface high
pressure over the southern Plains and clear skies have provided
generally light winds and cool morning temperatures in the 20s to
lower 30s. As high pressure slides into east Texas and a lee trough
forms across the High Plains, southwesterly surface winds will help
temperatures warm back into the middle 40s in north central Missouri
to the middle 50s across eastern Kansas. With a strengthening
pressure gradient keeping up southerly winds overnight, low
temperatures Monday AM will be warmer in the middle 30s. Winds will
become breezy during the day on Monday leading to a warm day in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. The next upper trough dives into the central
CONUS on Tuesday, with an associated cold front projected to slide
through the forecast area Tuesday AM. Surface high pressure settles
over the region Wednesday AM, leading to favorable conditions for
strong radiational cooling. As such, Wednesday AM temperatures will
be the coldest of the period in the lower to middle 20s.
Thanksgiving Day looks to be seasonably pleasant with highs in the
upper 40s to lower 50s, light winds, and mostly clear skies.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST SUN NOV 19 2017

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period as a
surface ridge in place continues to push eastward. Low-level flow
will increase overnight as this feature moves downstream, which
may present the possibility of overnight wind shear as 1kft winds
approach or exceed 40kts. Increased surface winds and relatively
uni-directional flow look to minimize overall impacts, though will
be worth monitoring. Gusty southwesterly winds will then commence
Monday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Welsh



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