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000
FXUS63 KEAX 232321
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Over all few changes were needed to the ongoing forecast. Still
expecting storms late tonight to move in from the west in response to
a progressive trough coming out of the Rockies. Some disagreement in
the various CAMs regarding timing. The latest (16Z) run of the HRRR
has weak activity out ahead of a cold front reaching far NE KS/NW MO
by 05Z while other models in the 09-12Z time frame associated with
storms firing along and just ahead of a cold front. Either way the
FCST reflects TSRA chances for much of the night. MUCAPE is rather
limited in the 700 J/kg while bulk shear values are >40 kts. Meaning
not expecting much in the way of any SVR storms yet the activity
should remain somewhat organized. Small hail, gusty winds and locally
heavy rain will be the theme. Tomorrow as the upper lvl trough moves
through the region the rain and storms will exit from west to east
clearly the CWA by mid afternoon.

Friday appears to be mild and dry before the next system for the
weekend. This system will be rather large and deep impacting much of
the CONUS. Saturday should be the nicer of the two weekend days with
perhaps scattered TSRA/SHRA and mild temps as we reside south of a
sharpening warm front. The various suite of NWP still differ on
where the warm front becomes established, but the GFS is now in
closer agreement with the EC in placing the front in southern IA by
Sunday leaving the CWA in a broad and moistening warm sector.
Storms are still expected for Sunday and Sunday night, but we are
too far out in time for specifics. However, the NWP paint a favorable
setup for SVR storms given able shear, and instability for Sunday
and into Monday... see SPC Day 4-8 Outlook for more info. The upper
level low will very slowly move through the region and should be out
of the area by TUE evening. In its wake very cold air (for late
April) will advect into the region during the day on TUE setting up
what could be a chilly TUE night / WED morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Showers and thunderstorms currently over western Kansas and south
central Nebraska will gradually build eastward tonight, edging into
our western forecast area between 06z-09z. Ceilings will gradually
lower as storms spread across the region, falling to around 3 kft by
12z Thursday morning. Southeast winds will diminish slightly tonight
but should retain gusts between 15 to 20 kts, then will transition to
the northwest from late Thursday morning through early afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Laflin