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000
FXUS63 KEAX 270525
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1125 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Tonight: Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight.
Surface winds will gradually veer around to the northeast overnight
with speeds reducing to around 5 kts. There is some potential for
patchy fog over northeastern to northern Missouri tonight, with NAM
and SREF probabilities relatively high. Uncertainty lies with modest
wind speeds remaining and some drier air gradually moving into the
area. Otherwise, a relatively quiet night is expected with lows
falling into the lower 30s.

Tuesday/Wednesday: With the influences of the departing surface high
pressure, Tuesday should be a few degrees cooler with easterly
boundary layer winds and shallower mixing. Afternoon readings are
expected to range from the middle 40s northeast to the middle 50s
southwest. The warmest day for the forecast area will occur on
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the upper pattern begins
to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to upper 60s. Dry
weather is expected through the warm period.

Extended: An upper disturbance will drop southeast from the Missouri
Valley to the Ohio Valley on Thursday, with an accompanying cold
front to push through the forecast area, bringing cooler
temperatures into the area. Any appreciable weather should remain
just to the northeast of the area on Thursday with the passage of
the upper low. Models have trended to a more active pattern this
weekend with the approach of a northern stream positively-tilted
shortwave trough. Forecast soundings suggest profiles supportive of
snow, or at least a rain-snow mix, through precipitation amounts
still vary greatly. Colder air is expected to follow behind the next
cold front and the subsequent exit of precipitation on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Will see a gradual
turning of the winds through noon on Tuesday from the northwest to
the east, and ultimately to the southeast. Fog development is
possible at KSTJ overnight, though not anticipating anything below
MVFR visibility.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh