Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 292325

625 PM CDT Fri May 29 2015

Issued at 318 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

Widespread rain and a few embedded thunderstorms will spread across
the area through the evening with the heaviest rainfall becoming
focused across west-central MO into the MO Ozarks. These areas could
see a half inch or so of rain, possibly some locally higher amounts,
but rainfall rates will be light enough to prevent any real flood
concerns. Back edge of this rain will clear areas near the KS/MO
border around 5 or 6. However, cold front approaching northwest
Missouri should spark scattered showers and storms later this
afternoon into the evening. Instability over northwest MO is weak and
shear even weaker so severe storms appear unlikely outside of an
isolated small hail report. Storms should also be scattered and
short-lived enough to keep heavy rainfall from being any real concern
either. This activity will encounter even weaker instability later
this evening as it moves into areas that saw rain all day long. This
will cause a general weakening trend overnight as the front pushes
toward central MO.

Rain will generally clear the area by sunrise Saturday although thick
low clouds behind the front will hang around for much of the day,
keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Similar temperatures
expected Sunday despite clearing skies. Broad ridging building into
the Plains early next week will bring a steady warming trend with
highs in the 70s Monday and mid 80s by Wednesday. This will also be
accompanied by increasing humidity especially given all the excessive
ground moisture from here to the Gulf Coast. However, even with
dewpoints approaching 70 degrees, capping aloft will prevent any
appreciable instability for thunderstorms until Thursday at the
earliest, and more likely not until Friday or beyond. This will bring
the longest dry period this area has seen in weeks.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A window of VFR or MVFR ceilings expected over the next several
hours. A cold front is approaching the area and ceilings will
deteriorate along and behind the front, from potential isolated to
scattered storms, as well as cold advection. Late tonight, IFR
ceilings are expected. These may persist through the remainder of the
forecast. However, think that ceilings will lift back to MVFR
tomorrow afternoon based guidance and forecast soundings. Winds will
veer to the north/northwest tonight and increase in speed as the
pressure gradient tightens behind the front. Winds may also gust in
the 20 to 25 KT range by tomorrow afternoon.




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