Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
000
FXUS63 KEAX 150538
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1238 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms with potentially strong to
severe storms are expected across central MO and points east during
the late afternoon into the evening. Primary hazards are large hail
and gusty winds. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
- Isolated showers are possible across areas of western and
northwest MO and far eastern KS through this evening into the early
overnight. Coverage is expected to be sparse at best.
- Cooler temperatures settle in for the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Another fairly active weather day across the region as storms are
starting to initiate across central MO; thus, a concise discussion.
These storms are forming a head of a cold front that has been slowly
working its way through the area during the day. At the time of
writing, the front is settled along a line from Moberly through
Butler. An upper level jet streak is moving across central MO during
the late afternoon and evening which is initiating convection across
the warm side of the front. Instability above 1000-3000 J/kgK and
bulk shear across the region above 30 kts foster a favorable
environment for large hail and damaging winds. A couple tornadoes
are also possible, but the tornado threat is more favorable to the
east of the coverage area. Storms are expected to initiate and
quickly move east across interior MO. Elevated showers continue
across the northern and western sides of the surface low bringing
chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms across western MO and
far eastern KS through the evening. These are likely to remain sub-
severe.
The weather pattern calms and cools going into the end of the week
as surface ridging progresses into the area. Low to mid level flow
turns northerly pushing colder air into the region. Highs Friday
reach into the upper 50s and low 60s. Temperatures rebound Saturday
as being on the western side of the ridge returns southerly flow
advecting warmer air into the area lifting highs toward the upper
60s. Sunday, strong upper level northwest flow mixes down cooler
breezy conditions. Northwest flow continues to dominate the weather
pattern over the next several days with the next potential for
precipitation looking to hold off until late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Currently a mix of IFR and MVFR CIGs at the terminals with
occasionally breezy north northeast winds. Patchy drizzle has
also developed across the KC metro. Conditions should improve to
MVFR with drizzle coming to an end within the next couple of
hours, with CIGs finally improving to VFR by around 10z this
morning, and skies mostly clearing by mid morning. Elevated NNE
winds may hang around for another few hours before gusts relax,
with northerly winds around 8 to 10 knots continuing through
most of the remainder of the period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...BMW