Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 302148
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
448 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 445 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

The upper level ridge positioned across the western half of the
CONUS has kept the local region under northwest flow aloft. This has
allowed for another hazy day as smoke from Canadian wildfires has
spread down into the North and Central Plains. Additional CCN has
likely allowed the cirrus deck to become a bit thicker than it might
have under normal circumstances, keeping temperatures a bit cooler
across much of the CWA this afternoon.

A more active period of weather will begin tonight with several
rounds of convective activity expected through the remainder of the
week as multiple disturbances round the ridge. For tonight...initial
activity will begin as scattered showers and thunderstorms as
isentropic lift increases across the region near a weak front moving
into the CWA. A shortwave trough will be rounding the ridge and will
approach the region overnight. This will kick off an area of
thunderstorms across Nebraska which will congeal and move southward
towards northwest Missouri. This large thunderstorm complex will
move down out of Nebraska overnight and be the primary concern for
heavy rain for portions of central Missouri. PWAT values of 1.5 to
2.5 inches will allow any convection to be capable of heavy rainfall
and could quickly lead to flooding issues over central Missouri. The
850 nocturnal jet will develop over Kansas overnight with the nose
nudging into western Missouri. In addition, the front will settle
across central Missouri with shear vectors progged to be normal to
the convective line. Bulk shear values of 35-45 kts will allow for
bowing segments to develop along the convection line which may be
capable of strong, damaging winds. The expected MCS will likely dive
southward behind the front and then take a slight easterly turn as
it nears the frontal boundary. Given the above conditions, a Flash
Flood Watch has been issued for tonight through Thursday morning for
expected precipitation.

Outflow from overnight convection will help enhance the boundary and
will be the focus for another round of showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon and evening across southeastern portion of the
CWA.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 445 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

The same trends are expected to continue through the extended with
the region under deep layer northwest flow allowing for the passage
of multiple low amplitude shortwave troughs. This would result in
continued precip chances each day and evening. The latest GFS
indicates perhaps a gradual warming trend in the far extended portion
of the fcst as mid-level heights slowly rise due to a slight eastern
expansion of the western CONUS ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue through this afternoon.
Smoke/cirrus deck will remain across the region with scattered to broken
10-12kft deck moving in from the north through the day. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon to early evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. A larger convective system will
move down across the region by early tomorrow morning. While models
disagree on the exact placement and timing of the complex, consensus
is that the main complex will stay east of the terminals. For now
have kept mention of VCTS at all terminals until models come into
better agreement on timing of the complex.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     morning FOR MOZ030>033-038>040-044>046-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PMM
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...PMM





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