Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 310823
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 AM CDT Sun May 31 2015
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
Quiet conditions and below normal temperatures are expected for
several days in the wake of yesterday`s cold frontal passage,
bringing a needed break in rainfall for the forecast area through at
least Wednesday. Widespread cloud cover will gradually depart to the
southeast today, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to
near 70 by late afternoon despite continued cool temperatures aloft.
The coldest temperatures will then shift east of the region for the
beginning of the work week as an upper trough glides out of the
Plains and into the Ohio River valley, allowing temperatures to
gradually warm into the lower 70s by Monday and the mid 70s Tuesday.
Longwave ridging building over the High Plains will bulge eastward
during the mid- to late-week timeframe, continuing the warming trend
and keeping precipitation chances low. High temperatures will reach
the lower to mid 80s area-wide on Thursday, and possibly the upper
80s on Friday as the thermal axis edges into northeast KS and far
western MO. A few very isolated storms could sneak into portions of
northwestern MO Wednesday through next weekend, but the highest PoPs
will remain west and north of the CWA with the upper jet focused to
Models indicate the ridge breaking down beyond the end of the
forecast period, possibly allowing wetter conditions to develop
early next week. Until then, precipitation chances remain below 50
percent through the remainder of the forecast period.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MVFR conditions are expected tonight and through late Sunday morning.
There is some uncertainty though with how low ceilings will get
though tonight. Guidance suggest that IFR ceilings will redevelop
later tonight and upstream sites have already lowered below 1K ft. So
there is a reasonable level of confidence that there will be IFR
ceilings build back in. Timing is the biggest uncertainty. Ceilings
do look to break up tomorrow afternoon with VFR conditions by the
later half of the period.