Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 230949
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
349 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

Early morning water vapor imagery still revealing a notable cyclonic
spin across the Nation/s midsection as broad upper low remains
entrenched over the region. Meanwhile...regional radars showing any
precip associated with this feature displaced north across IA and
NE...with dry conditions further south across the Lwr Missouri Rvr
Vly. As we progress through the day today...expect this trend to
continue through at least early afternoon...before precip chances begin
increasing from northwest to southeast towards early evening as main
mid-level vort max and sfc trough begin rotating through the area.

Fcst focus with this morning/s package revolves around P-type and
lgt snow accumulations beginning tonight and lasting through the day
tomorrow. Inspection of several fcst soundings across northwest
Missouri shows a fairly dry layer in the prime dendritic snow growth
region through 00z this evening...with a steady increase expected
thereafter as moisture arrives behind a departing sfc low that will
be lifting northeast into the western Lakes tonight. There seems to
be decent agreement on the thermal and moisture evolution later
today...and as a result...have -RA shwrs advertised for the far
northwestern zones this afternoon before showing a gradual change
over to a RA/SN mix and eventually all snow overnight. Despite the
snow fcst overnight...QPF amounts will remain light /generally under
0.05"/ which should yield little more than a few tenths of an inch in
spots.

Concerns yesterday for a moderate snow storm across the EAX CWA on
Wednesday continue to diminish as guidance agrees that developing
sfc low across the Lwr Miss Rvr Vly late this afternoon will remain
well enough east to have little if any impact on our area. That
said...region is not out of the woods on Wednesday as models suggest
lgt snow shwrs will prevail through portions of the day as
additional shortwave energy and associated mid-level trough axis
move over the area. Again...QPF amounts look very light and any snow
accumulations through the day should remain under a half inch at
best.

Notable warmup expected as we head into the Christmas holiday as weak
ridging builds aloft and moderate warm air advection occurs ahead of
digging trough across the western U.S. In fact...models agree that
850-hPa temps should increase to near 8C across the far western zones
by 18z Thursday. This should support temps in the upper 40s to and
maybe lower 50s Christmas Day.

After this...next main weather feature set to arrive late
Friday/early Saturday as a strong cold front blasts through the
region. Overall...feature looks to have little impact over the
region aside from a quick drop in temps heading into the weekend.
Another weak storm system then expected to pass to our south and east
on Saturday which may yield a few light RA/SN shwrs across the
eastern zones...but little to no precip further west towards the KC
Metro. Overall...extended period looks to remain below normal and
mostly dry through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Expecting to see VFR conditions over most of the forecast period as
dry air begins to filter in from the northwest. A few models have
hinted at fog development in the early morning hours, but if
development does occur, will likely remain patchy in nature and
relatively shallow. Ceilings look to gradually fill back in around
00Z as next upper wave draws near. Precipitation chances best fit in
after 06Z. Should any materialize near the end of the forecast,
drizzle will be the primary factor.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh






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