Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 162342

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
642 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 223 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Abnormally warm weather continues into the early part of the
upcoming week as strong warm/moist air advection moves into the area
ahead of a deepening surface trough. The tight gradient along the
leading edge of the trough has provided the energy for gusty winds
across the area on Sunday. This gradient will persist over the area
as the low continues to deepen through Sunday night and Monday, and
will allow for winds to increase through the day on Monday. Expect
winds out of the S/SW around 20 to 30 mph. As for temperatures the
strong warm air ahead of the surface trough will bring much-above
normal temperatures to the area, with expected high temperatures
approaching 90 degrees. For context on how warm the beginning of the
week will be refer to the CLIMATE section at the bottom of this
discussion for some climatological stats regarding the high
temperatures on Monday. Fire weather conditions on Monday will also
reach concerning levels, as the aforementioned strong winds along
with warm temperatures will combine to bring weather conditions
conducive to rapid spread of fire. While fuels across the area are
likely still less than critical levels the dry/warm and windy
conditions will make it easy for a fire to spread should one ignite.
At this time no fire or wind headlines are anticipated, but should
slightly deeper mixing occur on Monday than what`s forecast then
gusts across the area could exceed 30 mph and approach perhaps 40
mph in some locations. For a more detailed fire weather forecast see
the fire weather forecast included below. Isentropic upglide will be
fairly strong across the area on Monday morning, which should lend
to some cloud cover, mainly across northern Missouri. Some morning
clouds could be present as far south as Interstate 70, but they
should likely dissipate early in the day, especially once the winds
really get going and deeper mixing occurs.

A shift in the pattern is expected by mid week as the surface trough
shifts east and is replaced by an encroaching surface ridge. This
ridge will bring a much cooler and dryer air mass to the area,
bringing an end to the near-record setting heat. As the boundary
slides E/SE into central and southern Missouri it will likely kick
off some shower and thunderstorms, more likely along Interstate 44
as opposed to Interstate 35. That being said, have kept some SChc or
Chc PoPs in the central Missouri zones to allow for any shift in
location of these storms come the middle part of the week. Expect
more seasonal conditions through the rest of the week and into the
weekend with mostly dry conditions, especially north of I-70.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

VFR conds are expected to prevail however, there is some concern for
MVFR cigs btn 2-3kft at the terminals during the morning hours but
better chances appear north of the terminals at this time. Fog should
be precluded by gusty southerly winds through the TAF pd. The only
exception may be at STJ where winds may decouple overnight allowing
fog to develop btn 10Z-14Z. Otrw...expect winds out of the S around
15kts with gusts to 25kts overnight before picking up out of the SSW
tomorrow morning to around 20kts with gusts to around 30kts.


.Fire Weather...
Issued at 223 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

For Sunday and Monday...

Warm and gusty conditions will persist across the area Sunday night
through Monday. Winds are expected to pick up to around 20 to 25 mph
out of the south/southwest, with gusts perhaps reaching 30 to 35
mph. Mixing to around 3000 feet will bring some 30 to 40 mph winds
to the surface, but gusts could reach or exceed 40 mph should
slightly better mixing occur. Some lingering cloud cover during the
morning hours could mitigate some of that deeper mixing, but the
general thought is that clouds will wear off by mid day and mixing
should occur. This could also make conditions at the surface dryer
through the day. That being said, expect the surface layer moisture
content to remain relatively stable through the day, meaning no
dramatic drops in dew point are expected. RH values will likely drop
into the 40 to 50 percent range, which helps mitigate critical fire
weather. Also helping to mitigate fire weather is the non-critical
nature of the fuels. That being said, should a fire ignite the winds
will be strong enough for rapid fire growth if not carefully


Issued at 223 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016


Station.........................Kansas City
Monday Forecast LO/HI...........69/87
Daily Record High (year)........88 (1950)
Daily Record High Min (year)....67 (1965)
Daily Normal High...............67
Daily Normal Low................45

Station.........................St Joseph
Monday Forecast LO/HI...........67/87
Daily Record High (year)........89 (1991)
Daily Record High Min (year)....66 (1965)
Daily Normal High...............66
Daily Normal Low................42




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