Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 271136
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
636 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
Today will see another day of unseasonable warmth just ahead of a
cold front that will swing through the area later in the afternoon.
925 hPa temperatures won`t be as high as yesterday, but most areas
should still be able to rise into the middle to upper 70s with a
couple of 80 degree readings possible across central MO. Increasing
isentropic lift ahead of the front should bring an increase in clouds
through the afternoon, and possibly a few elevated showers or weak
thunderstorms although these will have to battle a very dry low-
level airmass just off the surface.
Airmass ahead of this evening`s cold front will be strongly capped
and anything that develops before 03Z or so will have to come from a
highly-elevated and weakly unstable layer above 850 hPa. This should
keep any precipitation fairly isolated in nature until the front
makes it into central Missouri later in the evening. These areas will
have more time for capping to erode although instability and
moisture will remain fairly weak. Therefore any storms that do
develop out that way should stay scattered in nature with strong
storms or heavy rain looking unlikely.
Weak northwesterly flow behind tonight`s front will bring
temperatures back to seasonal averages through the remainder of the
week. May need to watch for a light frost across northwest MO Tuesday
night with a low-level ridge axis and light winds setting up over
that area. Otherwise no frost/freeze chances on the horizon until
Friday night at the earliest, and even that is trending a bit warmer
than previous forecasts.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
Could see a few showers or even weak thunderstorms develop along a
cold front later this afternoon, though better chances for this will
be east of the KC terminals toward DMO and COU. Odds of precipitation
affecting the KC area is only about 30 percent, so will keep a VCSH
mention due to the low probabilities.