Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 150505
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1105 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 303 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2017

Quiet and mild weather conditions are expected through much of the
forecast. Upper-level flow has become somewhat amplified over the
CONUS with a strong ridge over the western states and troughing over
Ontario/Quebec into the northeastern US. This western ridge will move
into the center of the country with nearly an omega block setting
up. With the ridge moving east, temperatures will soar into the
upper 60s and lower 70s by Thursday and Friday. The one wrinkle to
this is the the low currently over north Texas and another wave
nearly retrograding under the upper ridge in the vicinity of the
California/Arizona border. This second wave should move into the
Plains Friday. For now, this wave looks dry with only high level
clouds expected as forecast soundings remain very dry from about
400mb to the surface. Given this, feel confident we`ll see well
above normal highs and have trended warmer for Friday with highs
in the lower 70s looking likely. Well above normal temperatures
will persist through the weekend and have trended warmer for
Saturday - Monday as well. For Monday though, the warmest air may
be across our eastern zones as there may be thick cloud cover over
our west with precipitation chances moving in.

Regarding Monday`s precipitation chances, models vary the timing
of the wave that will bring us our next chance for rain. The
Canadian is slower overall, but moves a leading wave through the
area Sunday night. The GFS and the ECMWF don`t show this initial
round of precipitation but rather move rainfall in later in the
day Monday. This variability decreases confidence in any one
period of time and also leads to chances that may be more spread
out in time than what might actually happen..

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with
surface winds slowly veering form the north to west Wednesday
evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Cutter



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