Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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540
FXUS63 KEAX 090918
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
318 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Upper-level troughing will pervade from the Great Lakes through the
eastern CONUS this week and into the weekend, resulting in chilly
but mainly dry conditions throughout the CWA. Fluctuations in the
strength and westward extent of the upper trough will allow highs to
vary from the upper 20s to the middle 40s this week, and will also
be moderated by cloud cover from weak, passing waves dropping down
the back side of the upper trough.

In the very near term, the main concern will be fire danger this
afternoon as dewpoints mix down into the single digits and northwest
winds continue to gust into the 20 to 30 mph range. Chilly highs in
the 20s to lower 30s should keep the RH somewhat moderate and thus
should keep the overall fire danger below a critical level, but the
breezy conditions and dry fuels may still promote the spread of
fires should one start.

Broad, weak lift associated with the right entrance region of an
upper jet streak will combine with pacific moisture rounding the
ridge across the western U.S. on Wednesday afternoon, supporting a
quick shot of light snow across the northeastern half to third of
the CWA. Saturation will be fairly deep but occurs above -10 C and
does not extend down into the boundary layer; thus snow rates should
be fairly light, and snow amounts will total less than an inch, even
in far northwest MO where the combination of lift and moisture will
be most efficient.

Although timing is a smidge different in the EC and GFS, both models
appear to indicate warming in between surges of upper low pressure
late Thursday into Friday. Depending on the exact timing, slightly
above normal high temperatures are possible -- especially across
southwestern portions of the forecast area -- on Friday. Cooler air
will move back in for Saturday; however, keeping the warming trend
short lived.

Precipitation continues to look possible Sunday or Monday as a
shortwave trough digs from the Northern Plains through the Missouri
Valley, dragging a surface low and associated cold front through the
region. Precipitation type will depend on how far south the trough
drops, and the antecedent conditions as a result of the timing of
the system. Either way, the track and depth of the surface low does
not support much accumulation or a long duration of precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals for the next 24 hours.
Strong and gusty winds from earlier today seem to have decoupled as
winds have dropped off to ranging from calm to 12 MPH from the
northwest. However, the pressure gradient and daytime mixing should
allow the gusty winds to mix back down by 14Z. Otherwise, what cloud
are out there should be well in the VFR range for the day. Currently,
lower clouds, in the MVFR range, look possible just beyond the end
of this TAF cycle.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter



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