Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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875
FXUS63 KEAX 081751
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1151 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 235 AM CST FRI DEC 8 2017

A dry and persistent weather pattern will continue through this
forecast period. The pattern will favor upper level troughing over
the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley with strong upper ridging over
the western CONUS. This will leave the local area under northwest
flow aloft between these two areas. This pattern will continue
through the forecast period as several shortwaves will look to
reinforce the troughing over the Great lakes and Ohio River Valley.
This will keep the best chance for precipitation to the north and
east of the CWA however, these shortwaves will send periodic cold
fronts through the area.

The first of these fronts will move through the area later today
however, southwest to westerly flow through most of the day today
will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s. A
reinforcing cold front will move through the area overnight tonight
with modest CAA in behind the front keeping temperatures in the 30s
on Saturday. Sunday, northwest flow aloft relaxes and with a
downsloping westerly flow, temperatures will rise into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. This warm up will be short-lived as another shortwave
pushes another cold front through the area Monday with moderate CAA
behind it. By Tuesday, temperatures will return to near normal with
highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Wednesday will warm up as
northwest flow aloft again weakens and warm air advects into the
region with southwest flow. Highs Wednesday will be in the lower 40s
to lower 50s. Yet another in the train of shortwaves will force
another cold front through the area Wednesday night and temperatures
Thursday will return to the low to mid 40s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST FRI DEC 8 2017

Although VFR ceilings are currently observed at the terminals and
anticipated to prevail through the remainder of the day, low-level
stratus is slowly sinking south-southeastward. This deck is
anticipated to stay away from the area terminals today, but will
be keeping an eye on it and update if necessary. However, as a
front drops south across the region tonight through tomorrow
morning, the terminals will see the clouds thicken and lower,
along with an increase in NW winds. Have held off including MVFR
mention for this TAF issuance, but could see it included in the
next issuance if the signal persists for it to occur.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...lg



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