Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 142335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
535 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 254 PM CST WED FEB 14 2018

Stratus is finally beginning to mix out (just in time for sunset)
and will provide a very brief window of warming before nightfall.
However, the break in the stratus will make it just a bit more
difficult to redevelop overnight, at least until the early morning
hours. Stratus and perhaps some light fog and patchy drizzle is
possible from early through at least mid-morning Thursday as warm-
air advection pushes through the region, and a few light rain
showers are possible across central MO where lift is stronger.

A cold front will push through during the late afternoon, but
increasing southwest winds and hopefully a bit of sunshine will
help temperatures rise into the 60s to near 70 degrees by the time
the front passes. Temperatures will drop gradually in the evening,
then cold air will continually filter in and hold temperatures in
the 30s on Friday. Chilly temperatures are still expected to
moderate over the weekend, while high pressure dominates in the
wake of the cold front and keeps weather conditions quiet.

The system Monday into Tuesday is still on track but continues to
trend warmer with a more glancing blow from the upper trough and
thus warmer temperatures aloft. Precipitation type looks like
mainly rain at this point, and even an isolated rumble of thunder
could be possible Saturday afternoon across central MO, depending
on the setup of the system and any heating that occurs.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST WED FEB 14 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with the
only exception being right around sunrise the possibility of a
short lived MVFR ceiling. This MVFR ceiling is expected to shift
just east and not effect the terminals, so it has been left out
of the TAFs, but needs to be monitored for any westward trends.
LLWS will be an issue from MCI and south as stronger winds
(35-45kts) will move into our area overnight while surface winds
are weaker. As winds increase on the surface after sunrise this
LLWS will weaken and even dissipate by mid morning. A cold front
will push through in the afternoon Thursday causing winds to shift
to the NW through the rest of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Barham



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