Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 180516
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1216 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014
Issued at 206 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014
For tonight a trough moving through the Northern Plains into the
upper Midwest will set the stage for thunderstorms to develop well
northwest of the CWA. I left the inherited low chance pops in for
tonight as several of the higher res models depict a decaying storm
complex to move in out of Nebraska into our far northwest and north
central zones near and after midnight tonight. Not expecting
anything severe with the activity for our CWA. Otherwise most of the
CWA should see skies slowly clear with calm winds. Patchy fog may
form again very late tonight for areas that do clear out for a period
of time before sunrise.
Tomorrow will see the return of warm to what will be hot temperatures
by mid-week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region behind
the departing upper Midwest trough. There may be several isolated to
scattered showers of storms as we start the morning mainly well north
of I-70 with continued low chances through tomorrow night.
After Monday each day will become increasingly warmer with the
possibility of isolated showers and storms. Heat indices should reach
the upper 90s to low 100s Wednesday into Saturday.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014
Convective complex from southeast NE through central KS is finally
weakening as the KS portion start to drop south. Weakening showers
likely over northeast KS but may barely reach far northwest MO and
west central MO before dissipating. Associated outflow boundary is
slowing its eastward push but cold still pass through the terminals
by 08z with winds briefly shift to the west and increase.
The convective cloud debris will overspread western MO and greatly
diminish the fog threat at all 3 terminals. Areas of fog over
northeast and central MO could become more dense overnight with
visibilities less than a mile.