Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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058
FXUS63 KEAX 190452
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1152 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 321 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

A lingering frontal boundary draped across southern Iowa was the
focus of overnight convection along the front and points south over
northern Missouri. Given the lack of any strong steering flow,
storms trained across the boundary and resulted in rain totals as
high as 3 to 5 inches during the overnight to afternoon hours.
Most of this activity was focused north of the CWA with marginal
areal flooding concerns with the exception of Nodaway, Worth,and
Atchison Counties. However, heavy rain upstream over the weekend and
this morning will begin to give evidence of its effects with rising
downstream river levels beginning today through the mid-week across
northern Missouri. Several of the smaller impacted rivers will enter
flood stage as early as today with larger rivers entering flood
stage over the coming days.

Overnight convection has produced a series of outflow boundaries
just south of the I-70 corridor. An isolated storm or two may
develop along the boundary through the afternoon and evening, though
currently not anticipating any widespread development given the lack
of any mentionable convergence ahead of this boundary. The main
impact through the forecast period will continue to reside with a
prolonged heat wave as upper-level ridging builds overhead and
across much of the Central Plains. An Excessive Heat Warning has
been issued for areas mostly south of the Missouri River through
Friday evening. Heat indices will peak between 105 to 110 degrees
over multiple days with overnight lows only dropping to the mid to
upper 70s. May need to consider expanding the Excessive Heat Warning
for areas north toward the mid-week, but will hold off for now given
recent convection.

Tonight, the low level jet will redevelop from southwestern Kansas
into south central Nebraska. This will intersect the residual
aforementioned boundary north of the CWA and may act to reinforce
signals of additional convection over Iowa along the periphery of the
building ridge. Most of this activity will be confined well to the
north of the CWA, though north central to northeastern Missouri
could see some showers and thunderstorms as activity slides
southeastward through Tuesday morning. Not anticipating anything
severe with these storms, though wind gusts could become strong at
times.

Beyond this period, the upper-ridge will continue to build, which
will create a steady increase in already warm temperatures through
the remainder of the work week. At this time, it appears that
Thursday and Friday will be the warmest of days with surface
temperatures nearing 100 degrees. Nonetheless, the early week will
be just as significant in terms of precautionary measures needed in
light of persistent increased temperatures. Recent rainfall may act
to limit afternoon heat indices for areas north of the Missouri
River, though once surface soils dry heading into Wednesday, this
moderation will be lifted and widespread heat indices of 105 to 110
degrees are possible through Friday.

By the early weekend the dominant ridge will begin to weaken and a
shortwave will deepen across the Northern Plains. This will send a
cold front through the area during the weekend, which will bring a
return of near-normal temperatures through the late forecast period.
Still need to consider the extent of how the wave develops along
with the timing of the frontal boundary passage, but this could bring
widespread storms back into the area by the late weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

Clear skies and light winds will persist through the forecast period
at all TAF sites. A few isolated storms are possible along the MO/IA
border again Tuesday morning, but should not impact any of the
terminals. Winds will begin to veer by sunrise, eventually
increasing to around 10 to 15 kts by late morning Tuesday.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ102.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ028>031-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-032-033.

&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Laflin



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