Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 201131
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Widespread rain will track across the entire forecast area from west
to east through much of the morning. Interaction of a 35-kt LLJ and
an elevated boundary near the I-70 corridor is bringing some
frontogenetical enhancement to some of this rain especially around
the I-70 area. It wouldn`t be surprising to see a few rumbles of
thunder and a few rainfall amounts as high as one inch across these
areas, otherwise steady rain and rainfall amounts around a half inch
will be the general rule for most of the forecast area. Precipitation
should taper off pretty quickly from west to east later this morning
as isentropic upglide quickly transitions to downglide and the main
upper wave pushes to the east. However, thick low clouds will linger
through the day and keep most areas from getting any warmer than the
lower 50s. These clouds will likely stick around for much of the
night, but if they clear out quickly enough there could be a few
areas of fog.

A period of zonal upper flow will keep things dry for Thursday and
most of Friday, while a large area of high pressure across much of
the Northern and Central U.S. keeps things seasonably cool with highs
in the 60s. This will also keep a surface boundary confined well to
our south across the Gulf Coast states.

Southwest upper flow returns to the region this weekend into early
next week which will bring a return to a wet pattern. Light rain may
make it as far east as eastern KS Friday and Friday night, but will
struggle to make it much further than that as it encounters a
sprawling surface high over the Midwest. This high will gradually
move well to the east by Saturday evening which will allow higher
moisture and rain chances to spread into more of the forecast area.
Better chances for more widespread thunderstorms will arrive Sunday
into Monday when the main upper trough to the west approaches.
Upper-level wind fields don`t appear particularly strong during this
time, so any severe weather potential may end up highly dependent on
how unstable the atmosphere can get. Bigger concern may be additional
heavy rain and possible flooding early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Back edge of rain will move into western MO over the next hour or so,
and most indications are that ceilings will drop into IFR once the
rain ends. It may take them a while to lift out of IFR, possibly not
until late this afternoon, with gradual improvement into VFR after
dark.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






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