Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 161057
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
557 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2017

Temperatures early this morning are continuing to drop as surface
high pressure takes control, although its center will remain south
of the forecast area as it cruises by today and tonight. Once this
morning`s low temps start rising again after sunrise, look for
highs today to reach near normal for mid-October, comfortably set
in the upper 60s to around the 70 degree mark. Thanks to zonal
flow taking over for much of the week, unremarkable weather will
dominate, with temps slowly but steadily rising throughout the
week. The next rain chances look to arrive next weekend as the
zonal pattern breaks down, allowing for an increasingly amplified
one to take its place. While there are still large discrepancies
among the global models as to the specifics, they generally agree
on a trough traversing through the Intermountain West and into the
Plains states, kicking off unsettled weather at the surface.
While no two weather events are the same, models are depicting a
similar scenario of this past weekend with upper trough exiting
the ImW, triggering cyclogenesis, leading to a cold front dragging
through the region, and triggering storms along and ahead of it.
Far too early though, as aforementioned, to nail down specifics of
any sort, so stay tuned. In other words: precip this weekend?
very possible; thunderstorms? potentially; severe weather? way too
soon to predict with decent accuracy.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period except for STJ,
where fog this morning has reduced the visibility there. Once the
sun burns it off, VFR conditions will prevail there as well. Winds
will primarily be out of the southwest as surface high pressure
moseys past to the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-102.

MO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>004-011-
     012.

&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...lg


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