Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 172008
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
308 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 308 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

Split upper level flow has maintained a southwest to northeasterly
jet positioned from west Texas extending into the Mississippi River
Valley. This has created a deep layer moisture axis across
southwestern to east central Missouri and has effectively acted to
keep moisture levels over the CWA relatively shallow. A shortwave
feature currently entering southeastern Nebraska may help to produce
an isolated thunderstorm or two late this afternoon and evening as
it crosses over an axis of moisture convergence over areas north of
I-70. A broad area of subsidence from storms early this morning
across northeast Missouri may mitigate this potential, so have kept
slight PoPs across the northeastern to central CWA through the late
afternoon. Cloud cover should also be limited by the broad area of
subsidence, thus afternoon temperatures should have no problem
reaching the upper 80s, with the western counties, including the
Kansas City area, reaching the low 90s within an area of greater
warm air advection.

Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, with slightly increasing
temperatures as southerly to southwesterly surface flow remains
firmly in place. Differential warm advection will keep areas north
of I-70 in the low 90s with areas south in the low 80s. The pattern
will then become more active as an upper trough swings south into
the Northern Plains by Friday afternoon. This will send a cold front
into northwest Missouri late Friday evening and will be the focus of
the next round of widespread rain showers and thunderstorms Friday
night into Saturday morning. A few models have suggested convection
in the warm sector of the approaching storm system Friday afternoon,
and an isolated afternoon storm or shower cannot be ruled out,
though generally thinking that precipitation will hold off until the
evening to overnight hours along the frontal boundary. With regard
to severe potential, moderate MUCAPE values early on may be
sufficient to produce robust updrafts across northwest to north
central Missouri, though weak wind fields aloft will not maintain
persistent storm development, particularly as the front pushes
southeast into the overnight as the environment stabilizes. Thus,
severe potential should remain in the form of strong winds favored
for areas across northwest Missouri to north central Missouri.
Precipitable water values around 2 inches will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall. The front should be progressive enough to limit
areal flooding, though flash flooding potential will need to be
monitored.

Activity should begin to diminish Saturday afternoon into the
evening with much cooler temperatures expected behind the frontal
boundary through the remainder of the weekend and into the early
work week. Afternoon highs will linger in the upper 70s both
Saturday and Sunday, increasing into the low 80s by Monday. The next
chance of precipitation will then resume by the mid-week.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon. There is a slight
chance of an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon, but latest trends
suggest a dry forecast through the period. Winds will generally
remain out of the S to SW while decreasing near sunset.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh



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