Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 232035
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
335 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Overnight convection over south central Nebraska sent an outflow
boundary into northwest Missouri this morning. Sufficient moisture
and elevated instability in place allowed new convection to initiate
along the boundary by the late morning. Ongoing convection over
central Kansas then progressed eastward and merged with the storms
in northwest Missouri. Steady northeastward storm motion is flowing
parallel with the now elongated surface boundary across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. This boundary is split across the KC
metro and has produced localized flooding within the Kansas City
area, with rain totals ranging from 2 to 4 inches reported in some
areas. A flash flood warning has been issued for areas including the
KC metro until 415 pm this afternoon. Once this boundary does
finally push eastward later this afternoon, steady rain showers will
continue behind this boundary into the evening hours, though these
should be more progressive. Regardless, flooding concerns will
continue throughout areas impacted earlier in the day and will need
to be closely monitored through the evening. Afternoon highs behind
this activity over NW Missouri will be kept to the mid 70s within
the rain cooled air with temperatures expected to peak in the lower
80s ahead of this activity. No severe weather is anticipated along
this boundary.

For tonight and into Tuesday, the low-level jet will favor convection
over central Kansas overnight. This may develop into an MCS that
could then cross into western Missouri toward daybreak. Severe
potential with this activity tomorrow should mostly be limited to NW
Missouri, where marginal deep layer shear is present. Overall, much
uncertainty resides with the forecast throughout the week and
conditions will largely be dependent upon the previous day`s activity
and how the environment responds accordingly. Through the early
portions of the week, current thinking is that severe potential will
be limited with the lack of deep layer shear noted across the CWA.
With that said, all other ingredients will be in place with moderate
instability and ample moisture. Thus, cannot rule out the potential
for severe activity Tuesday as anything that does manage to develop
could produce large hail within tall core storms, along with possible
strong winds.

This trend will then continue into the mid-week as a steady stream
of ample moisture is pulled northward from the Gulf through the
remainder of the week. The dry line and forcing mechanisms will
linger over central Kansas during this time. Thinking that any
strong to severe storms will originate ahead of the dry line and
advect into our area, if storms are able to maintain. As of now,
Wednesday and Thursday will be the most favored periods for severe
weather as the necessary ingredients begin to align. However, this
may be limited by a capping inversion, all dependent on each day`s
previous progression.

Activity may then subside temporarily heading into the weekend,
though the unsettled pattern will continue shortly thereafter as
another longwave trough settles over the southwestern CONUS.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Thunderstorm activity will build into the region through much of the
afternoon hours today. An outflow boundary to the NW of the terminals
will reduce visibilities during the early afternoon, though ceilings
should remain VFR during this time and beyond. More stratiform
precipitation will then impact the late afternoon. Whether or not
this lingers into the evening hours is uncertain, though thinking as
of now that we should see a break in the activity beginning this
evening and into most of the overnight. By tomorrow morning,
thunderstorms look to redevelop. During this time, ceilings could
become MVFR or even IFR. This will all depend on how activity trends
tonight. Will revisit this scenario for the 00Z forecast.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh


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