Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 190441
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1141 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Gradually warming temperatures and continued dry conditions are
expected for the remainder of the weekend and the first half of next
week as our upper trough departs to the east and warmer conditions
build in from the west. Another shortwave trough will drop southeast
across the Great Lakes region on Monday, driving a weak cold front
through the CWA and possibly fueling a few scattered showers across
the southern half of MO; however, no rainfall is expected in our
area, and temperatures should not be significantly impacted.

The next feature to watch continues to be the trough currently well
offshore in the north Pacific. This feature will gradually push east
by early next week, and may arrive in the central CONUS Wednesday
night or Thursday. Model consistency remains poor with the strength,
timing, and track of the trough as it heads east, therefore although
it results in the best chance of rainfall in the next seven days,
confidence is low for the chance of any measurable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Overall, VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period.
Included a chance of MVFR fog at KSTJ due to favorable wind direction
and surface moisture. Development depends largely on whether or not surface
winds increase more than expected overnight. Otherwise, southeasterly
winds will continue to transition to a southwesterly direction by the
early afternoon on Sunday. Expect this to coincide with mid-level
clouds moving in from the southwest along a weak frontal boundary.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh






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