Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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962
FXUS63 KEAX 210834
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
334 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 334 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

We`re starting to sound like a broken record here but heat and
humidity concerns will obviously continue right into the weekend. In
fact...latest model guidance this morning continues to delay the
frontal boundary on Sunday and thus have elected to extend the
excessive heat warning for areas along and south of the Missouri
River through the afternoon hours on Sunday. For areas further
north...too much uncertainty currently exists with respect to both
frontal positioning and precip chances. Will allow future shifts the
opportunity to inspect later model runs before making the final call
on whether additional areas will need to see an extension. In any
event...today should be a degree or two warmer than yesterday with
Friday still looking to be the warmest day of the workweek with the
century mark possible for some areas during the afternoon hrs.
Saturday may be just as warm as Friday and would not be surprised to
see a 100 degree reading or two once again as latest statistical
guidance is calling for almost identical highs. Its going to be hot
folks...please ensure proper precautions are taken to protect loved
ones and pets from these dangerous conditions.

Moving on to impacts unrelated to heat...models are advertising the
possibility of a few sporadic storms across northern Missouri Friday
morning and afternoon as strongly unstable conditions combine with a
passing shortwave. For now models seem to be keying on the remnants
of upstream overnight convection over central Nebraska tonight as it
tracks east into south-central Iowa during the day on Friday. Quick
look at BUFKIT soundings up towards the state border prevail pretty
decent capping however strong instability combined with increased
vorticity advection may be enough to help a fire a few storms.
Otherwise...the next chance for anything organized will likely hold
off unto Sunday night when the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls
over the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF develop convection along this
boundary during the overnight hours as successive shortwaves interact
with the boundary. Beyond this...precip chances along with a return
of near normal temperatures look to prevail through the remainder of
the fcst as northwest flow develops in response to developing
ridging across the Intermountain and Desert Southwest. This will
allow for the passing of several weak disturbances which combined
with a lingering boundary and ample low-level moisture
supply...should lead to unsettled weather through the conclusion of
the fcst period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

Still looking at VFR conditions persisting through the forecast
period. Marginal low level wind shear is still possible overnight
with southwest winds around 500 to 1000 feet increasing to 30 kts.
Gusty winds will pick up through the day time hours with good low
level mixing, but will subside quickly around sunset.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ102.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025.

&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Leighton



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