Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 252350
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
650 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Primary evening updates were to issue a short-fused flash flood watch
for extreme northeast KS and parts of northwest MO for this evening
through mid-morning Tuesday. Multiple rounds of storms are likely to
trek over this area, and periods of heavy rainfall rates will create
significant runoff over already saturated grounds.

The threat for severe weather continues across northeast KS and
northwest MO this evening as well. Deep layer bulk shear values
increase from west to east to about 40-45 kts across north central
MO, and storms that have developed this evening will continue moving
into this regime. MUCAPE values are still more than supportive of
robust convection, generally between 2500-3500 J/kg. Aircraft
soundings indicate a continued capping inversion right around 800 hPa
in the Kansas City area, so may have to wait several hours before
storms impact the metro. Current trends indicate that the two areas
of storms which are 1) trailing from northwest MO to central KS, and
2) near the Wichita area could arrive around the same time, first
impacting KC between 11 PM and midnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Primary concern is the potential for severe convection to occur this
afternoon through this evening.

Afternoon water vapor imagery, visible satellite and surface
observations reveal a very complex pattern. In the upper levels,
several distinct shortwave troughs were noted within the main
longwave pattern. The strongest was rotating into west Texas, and
this may have the best influence on our area later this evening and
tonight. The other is over western Nebraska and may ultimately
phase/merge with the west Texas wave. At the lower levels and the
surface, there appears to be an area of low level convergence/theta
e advection max extending from a surface low in south central Kansas
through northeastern Kansas. It`s this convergence area that seems
most likely to initiate convection that will ultimate influence the
forecast area. The anticipation is that convection will initiate on
this convergent area from south central Kansas into northeastern
Kansas this afternoon and early this evening. The eastward extension
of this would most likely occur as cooling aloft/deeper forcing
associated with the phasing/merging shortwaves as they move eastward.
So in the 00Z to 03Z timeframe, there may be in increase in coverage
over eastern Kansas that will then begin to influence most of the
western portions of the forecast area. CAPE will be strong, perhaps
as high as 3500 J/kg late this afternoon. However shear is marginal
and 0-3km helicity is not overly impressive. However, the
combination of strong instability, marginal shear, 0-1km helicity
values in the 120-140 m^2/s^2 range, in the presence of a weak
boundary/convergence area, may support rotating storms initially
before an imbalance in the instability/shear results in cold pool
dominated regime. With decent mid-level lapse rates and modest
downdraft CAPE, large hail and damaging winds look to be biggest
threat. However, an tornado or two can`t be ruled out, especially
with low LCLs in the area. Shear is expected to increase through the
night as the influence from the upper shortwave trough begins to
have more influence on the area. So there may be a potential for
convective system, possibly severe, to move through during the
overnight hours with the best potential for severe weather overnight
in our southern and southeastern zones. Given increasingly strong
0-1km shear, close to perpendicular to the storm motion, and
increasing low level helicity late tonight, a few circulations
within the possible convective line seem possible. Timing of this
would be late tonight and seems most likely confined to our southern
and southeastern zones based on latest trends from short-range model
guidance.

Precipitation will likely be winding down from west to east through
the day in the wake of the possible convective system and its
associated subsidence. But continued troughiness, for lack of a
better term, may continue to lead to a few/scattered showers/storms
across northern Missouri.

The overall unsettled weather pattern looks to persist through the
remainder of the week. While the flow is closer to zonal, there is
enough troughing to our west and ridging to our east to maintain a
southerly moist flow. By the end of the week and into the weekend,
models move this western trough over the region as either a cutoff
low or at least a slow moving system. Through the extended, there
doesn`t appear to be a 12 hour period where some precipitation isn`t
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR conditions will continue for a few hours at all terminals, before
areas of thunderstorms build into the area. Currently, it looks like
storms may impact the KSTJ terminal as early as 01-02z, and the KC
metro terminals beginning between 04-05z. These storms should clear
out of the area between 10-12z, leaving behind VFR conditions for the
remainder of Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR KSZ102.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR MOZ001>005-011-012.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Laflin
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin





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