Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 012059

359 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Issued at 359 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015


Could be a very active evening as ingredients coming together for
supercells. Airmass has been gradually recovering from eastern KS
into far west central MO from this mornings convection. Warm front
or the old outflow boundary has lifted northeast through the KC
Metro area, which the operational models had depicted further south.
This more northern displacement is allowing 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE
over east central/southeast KS to be advected into west central MO.
Certainly plenty of shear with 45kt of 0-6km shear to support
rotating updrafts. Of note is the decrease in the 0-1km shear down
to 15kt. However, the 12z and 18z NAM ramped that up to 30kt by 03z
and 06z over the far southwestern counties. Latest RUC has latched
onto the more northern location of the front with convection
initiating along the front over west central MO between 21z-23z
which is in the range of what we had been anticipating.

Should convection develop near the Missouri River as forecast the
initial activity would likely be severe and include all severe
elements. Storms should congeal into another complex of heavy rain
producing storms and likely track through the current Flash Flood

Thursday - Friday:

The train of shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow will
continue to provide a threat for convection, more so on Thursday.
Satellite imagery showed the next upstream vorticity max dropping
southeast from southern Alberta. Weak high pressure building in from
WI into IA will help shield the eastern CWA from the majority of the
convection. Below average temperatures expected due to the
northeasterly boundary layer winds.

4th of July Weekend:

Looking like we could get away with at least one dry day, Saturday
more so than Sunday. The northwest flow will begin to flatten as an
upper trough glides across southern Canada. A gradual warmup also

Monday - Wednesday:

The unsettled and rainy pattern returns under a modified northwest
flow regime with embedded shortwaves.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A frontal boundary extends east from north central KS through west
central MO, bisecting the KC Metro with KMCI north of the front. This
boundary will sink slowly south through this evening. Still expect to
see scattered showers and thunderstorms to form late this afternoon
over east central KS through west central MO. Strong storms and heavy
rains possible. This activity is expected to congeal into a complex
of storms that tracks southeast into central MO tonight. KSTJ could
remain dry through the forecast. The rain threat will end from north
to south late this evening with MVFR ceilings overspreading the

Operational and short range models fog but temperature/dewpoint
spread looks too large to support it. Will leave out of the terminals
for now.


MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ030>033-



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