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000
FXUS63 KEAX 132318
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 313 PM CDT WED SEP 13 2017

The upper pattern across the North America will transition from
generally zonal flow to deeper trough building over the Southwestern
US by the end of the week. This will allow for an upper ridge to
deepen across the eastern two-thirds of the country. This will have
several affects on the forecast area. The trough developing over
the west and stronger flow around that trough will help produce a
strong lee side trough at the surface. This will lead to
relatively strong south to southwest spreading over the area.
While it doesn`t look like wind advisory level winds, it`ll be
stronger winds than the area has seen for some time, probably in
the 20 to 25 mph sustained range with higher gusts on Friday. The
other noticeable thing will be the increased warmth. Normal high
temperatures over the next week is around 80 degrees. We should
easily see temperatures about 10 degrees above normal Thursday
through Saturday. Friday may even be in the 10 to 15 degree range.

A cold front should move into the area Saturday night, bringing with
it a good chance for storms during the late evening hours through
Sunday morning. That front looks to stall over the forecast area on
Sunday though, which may keep some showers and storms lingering into
the afternoon before the front lifts north again by late in the
afternoon. With the area right back into the warm sector Monday -
Wednesday, temperatures will again be 5 to 10 degrees above normal
through at least the middle of next week. There is a good chance
we`ll be warmer than that based on the latest trends in the models.

For Saturday, when there is a good chance for storms, there is a
wide range in just how much moisture is lifted north as well as the
timing of the front itself. The NAM, of course, has the most robust
moisture return and as a result leads to a much more unstable
environment. The GFS and ECMWF are drier, with considerably less
instability. For now will lean more towards the GFS and ECMWF. Given
this, the marginal shear and marginal instability suggest non-severe
storm potential Saturday evening.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT WED SEP 13 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Winds will shift
to the south and start to increase by late tomorrow morning.
Winds should be around 10 kts with gusts between 15-25 kts, with
the higher end expected in northwest MO and northeast KS. Winds
should diminish around sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Grana