


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
287 FXUS63 KEAX 271741 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A potential for storms this afternoon and evening. One or two of the strongest storms could produce severe conditions. Damaging winds will be the primary threat. - Additional chances for showers and storms over the weekend. No severe weather anticipated at this time. - Much more seasonal temperatures expected for the first half of next week. Less humid conditions should make being outside more comfortable. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 A stalled surface boundary draped across northeast MO extending into central MO has resulted in additional thunderstorms early this morning. Storms are expected to continue to dissipate through the early morning hours. Clearing behind the surface boundary will allow temperatures to warm this afternoon. Hot and humid conditions are expected with the mid-upper level ridge still impacting the area. Highs for today are anticipated to range in upper 80s to low 90s. There is a potential for some isolated to scattered storms this afternoon into the evening as remnant outflow boundaries provide just enough lift to develop thunderstorms with diurnal heating. The most favorable area for storms will be in southern MO towards the Ozarks (perhaps just grazing the southern fringes of our CWA). Into the late afternoon, a H5 shortwave trough extending from the Great Lakes Region into southwest KS provides additional lift initiating storms along and north of I-70. A few of the strongest storms this afternoon/evening could produce strong to severe conditions. CAPE values around 2,500-3,000 J/kg suggest the potential for strong updrafts. Weak shear (SFC-500 bulk shear values below 20 kts) will result in storms being short-lived and disorganized. DCAPE values exceeding 1,000 J/kg and inverted-v soundings suggest the main threat will be damaging winds. Chances for hail remain very low, as storms are anticipated to be too short-lived for significant hail growth. For now, this threat is expected to remain isolated in nature as recent CAMs keep the coverage of the storms minimal and forcing along the boundary will be fairly weak. The SPC Convective Outlook keeps our CWA in general thunder, which means severe is not expected, however given the instability and some lift, one or two storms could produce severe conditions. PWATs range from 1.5 to 2 inches keeping the chances for efficient rain-producing storms alive. Some of the strongest storms could produce brief downpours. Additional rainfall could aggravate areas that have already received significant rainfall. Storms over our area are anticipated to be transient enough to limit additional flooding concerns. Rain chances (25%-35%) persist into the start of the weekend with a few shortwaves moving through the flow. Areas south of I-70 seem to be the most likely, but there is still uncertainty due to diverging solutions among ensemble suites. Late Sunday into Monday, troughing extending from eastern Canada pushes a surface cold front through the area resulting in a chance for thunderstorms. Severe chances seem low at this time given the limited shear. Welcomed cooler, drier temperatures behind the front are anticipated for the first half of next week. Smaller temperature spreads between models imply higher confidence in cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 VFR conditions are likely to persist through the period, with generally light (10 knots or less) SSW winds. There could be isolated showers around the KC metro terminals between roughly 22z and 1z this afternoon/evening, so have maintained a PROB30 group for -SHRA during that 3 hour period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...BMW