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039
FXUS63 KEAX 262324
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 304 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

A prolonged quiet and dry period into the weekend highlighted by very
pleasant and mostly below seasonal temperatures.

A large closed upper low currently over southwest Ontario will
maintain its influence over our weather as it gradually slips
south-southeast through the Great Lakes and into the OH Valley.
Weak warm air advection via westerly downslope flow will result in
the the warmest day of the week tomorrow with seasonal temperatures.
A back-door cold front will then slip southward as the upper low
begins its southward journey and another injection of cool/dry air
overspreads the region for mid-week. In addition upper level ridging
builds northward through the plains. This will result in pronounced
subsidence on the back side of the upper low and combine with a
large wedge of surface high pressure to prevent any influx of
moisture.

Eventually an upper level trough moving through the west coast will
force the upper ridge east of us and allow warm air advection and
southwesterly flow aloft to bring a small chance for rain. But that
may not occur until Sunday at the earliest.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

Clear skies and light west winds will continue through the forecast
period. Light steam fog remains possible at KSTJ as air temperatures
cool significantly in comparison to the water temperature, but due to
very similar conditions last night not producing fog, will opt not to
add at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...Laflin