Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 200826

326 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

Issued at 326 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Widespread rain will track across the entire forecast area from west
to east through much of the morning. Interaction of a 35-kt LLJ and
an elevated boundary near the I-70 corridor is bringing some
frontogenetical enhancement to some of this rain especially around
the I-70 area. It wouldn`t be surprising to see a few rumbles of
thunder and a few rainfall amounts as high as one inch across these
areas, otherwise steady rain and rainfall amounts around a half inch
will be the general rule for most of the forecast area. Precipitation
should taper off pretty quickly from west to east later this morning
as isentropic upglide quickly transitions to downglide and the main
upper wave pushes to the east. However, thick low clouds will linger
through the day and keep most areas from getting any warmer than the
lower 50s. These clouds will likely stick around for much of the
night, but if they clear out quickly enough there could be a few
areas of fog.

A period of zonal upper flow will keep things dry for Thursday and
most of Friday, while a large area of high pressure across much of
the Northern and Central U.S. keeps things seasonably cool with highs
in the 60s. This will also keep a surface boundary confined well to
our south across the Gulf Coast states.

Southwest upper flow returns to the region this weekend into early
next week which will bring a return to a wet pattern. Light rain may
make it as far east as eastern KS Friday and Friday night, but will
struggle to make it much further than that as it encounters a
sprawling surface high over the Midwest. This high will gradually
move well to the east by Saturday evening which will allow higher
moisture and rain chances to spread into more of the forecast area.
Better chances for more widespread thunderstorms will arrive Sunday
into Monday when the main upper trough to the west approaches.
Upper-level wind fields don`t appear particularly strong during this
time, so any severe weather potential may end up highly dependent on
how unstable the atmosphere can get. Bigger concern may be additional
heavy rain and possible flooding early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Rain has been falling across eastern to central KS tonight,
spreading into NW MO with STJ reporting light rain earlier this
evening. Despite the radar being lit up tonight, much of the
precip aloft is not reaching the ground within the vicinity of the
other three terminals but this is expected to change as the night
progresses. Best rain chances should be impacting the terminals
between around 08Z through 11Z (give or take an hour) with the
lowest ceilings and visbys anticipated around dawn Wednesday
morning. The OVC skies aren`t looking to go anywhere throughout
the day on Wed. into Wed. night. Winds will be easterly to
northeasterly throughout this TAF period with winds picking up
tonight, then slackening a bit toward the end of the TAF period as
high pressure starts building in from the west.




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