Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 272027
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
327 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 227 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

Feel like we/re starting to sound like a broken record here...but
above average temps continue this afternoon with latest obs showing
many places in the lower 80s. Meanwhile...water vapor imagery
showing a deep cyclonic spin across the Nation/s mid-section as
large scale upper low continues to rotate across the upper Miss Rvr
Vly. Inspection of several model fields yields little concern as we
head into the overnight period as any appreciable lift associated
with this feature is slated to remain away from the forecast area. As
a result...expect very similar conditions to last night/s with upper
50s to lower 60s commonplace across the region. Fcst soundings show a
little drier air towards the surface early Sunday which should result
in less fog than we saw this morning.

Heading into tomorrow...upper low to begin heading east as developing
shortwave ridging across the High Plains approaches. That
said...fcst models in recent days have continued to highlight the
potential of a brief shwr/storm as mid-level vorticity associated
with upper low translates east over the area. For now...have pretty
much left inherited fcst as is...with an isolated thunder mentioned
across much of the area during the afternoon hrs. 925 and 850-hPa
temps appear a little warmer Sunday afternoon which should yield very
similar conditions to today...albeit maybe a degree or two warmer.

Beyond this...fairly quiet conditions to persist well into Monday
with temps expected to warm well into the lower to middle 80s once
again. Clouds should be on the increase by Tuesday as long awaited
Pacific storm system ejects east of the Rockies. From this vantage
point...an isolated shwr/storm cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon across our far western zones...but better potential will
hold off until Tuesday night/early Wednesday. More details below.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

The upper level trough currently positioned over the Great Basin
will slowly translate eastward, ejecting out onto the Plains by
Tuesday. This trough will open as another shortwave trough moves down
out of the Pacific NW to merge with the initial trough. The first
shortwave will quickly zip northward as it comes over the Rockies,
and the associated surface cold front will settle across the Central
Plains and stall. Ahead of the front, southerly winds will help to
advect gulf moisture up into the region. With increasing moisture and
upper level support, a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms will
be possible beginning Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday
night. The main threat will be the potential for some moderate to
heavy rainfall across portions of the area. The second incoming
trough will merge with the primary trough by late Thursday and help
to push the cold front eastward. Another change to the weather
pattern will begin on Friday as a third shortwave will move through
the flow and enhance the main trough. This system will help to deepen
the trough and bring much cooler temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. Fair wx cu centered
between 4-5 kft will give way to clear skies overnight. Drier low-
level conditions should preclude much fog development early Sunday
morning. Winds from the south between 8-12 kts this afternoon will
weaken slightly and back to the southeast overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...32





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