Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KEAX 251749

1249 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Thunderstorms should gradually clear the area through the morning,
although clouds and outflow boundaries left behind from this activity
will make temperature forecasts a challenge today. 850 hPa
temperatures will be similar to yesterday which would again favor
temperatures in the middle/upper 90s if the sun were to shine most of
the afternoon. However, unlike yesterday, rather thick upper-level
clouds extend back into Colorado and New Mexico, and these clouds should
keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than Friday. Still, humidity
will remain oppressive so it shouldn`t be hard to get heat index
values near or exceeding 105 especially near and south of the
Missouri River where more sun will peek through. Will therefore
continue with the heat advisory for these areas. Some areas near
Butler and Clinton could even rise into heat warning criteria (heat
index 110) if the sun can stay out most of the day but confidence
isn`t high enough on this to issue a warning.

A weak upper wave will track into the Mid Missouri Valley this
evening and will likely spark another round of thunderstorms. In fact
with outflow boundaries draped across the region, storms could fire
as early as early/mid afternoon as the atmosphere becomes moderately
to strongly unstable. Better chances for more organized/widespread
storms will arrive near and after sunset as the LLJ redevelops and
noses into northwest Missouri, possibly interacting with one or more
remnant boundaries. This set up could lead to some heavy rainfall
somewhere across northeast KS into northern MO, but models are
struggling to resolve where the better forcing/heavy rain potential
may be. Therefore opted to not issue a flash flood watch at this
time, but one may need to be considered if models can determine
if/where heavy rain is likely to fall. For now the highest threat for
this heavy rain appears to be over northwest MO, but it`s possible
the presence of these outflow boundaries could shift it further
south. In addition to the heavy rain threat, hot/moist surface
conditions combined with dry/cool air aloft will support damaging
winds with the strongest storms this afternoon and tonight.

By Sunday subtle height rises should shift the storm track further
north and east into northeast Missouri and points northeast of there,
and by Monday and Tuesday dry weather will build into the entire area.
This will also allow hot and humid conditions to continue across
eastern KS and western MO Sunday and Monday, spreading into the
entire area by Tuesday. Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday look to
be in the middle 90s across these areas with heat index values
probably exceeding 105. Will likely need to consider additional heat
advisories for these periods, possibly even warnings.

A weak front on Wednesday will bring slightly cooler temperatures for
the rest of the week with highs in the upper 80s. A few storms may
accompany the front Wednesday and Wednesday night, but the better
forcing and storm chances will be to our north.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR conditions currently prevail at all the terminals this afternoon
however there is a chance that thunderstorms will bubble up in the
heat of the afternoon. Therefore have kept the VCTS in for the KC
terminals but added a TEMPO group to KSTJ as areas slightly farther
north look to have a better chance at late afternoon storms. May have
to update the TAFs if and when storms develop. Storm activity could
arrive in a couple of waves as any late afternoon activity may fade
before the nocturnal jet kicks in and gets more storms going. Storm
activity is currently forecast to push off into central and eastern
Missouri for the early morning hours of Sunday. Otherwise, allow the
winds to veer around to the south west Sunday morning


KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-029-037>040-



AVIATION...Cutter is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.