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000
FXUS63 KEAX 070541
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1141 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

The next 24-36 hours will be rather benign but nonetheless extremely
cold as an extensive area of arctic air remains in place. The
primary concern will be the overnight wind chill. Fortunately the
winds will be light and less than 10 kts.

Satellite imagery shows a region of thin overcast mid clouds from
central KS through northern/west central MO that are expected to
thin/exit the region by the middle of the evening. Temperatures
will begin a gradual descent into the single digits once these clouds
clear. Despite the lack of snow cover the exceptionally cold and dry
airmass overnight will likely allow overnight temperatures to dip
below zero across northwest MO and extreme northeast KS. Even with
winds in the 4-8kt range wind chill readings will fall to between 5
and 15 below zero with the coldest readings across northwest MO.

Despite a sunny start temperatures will only rebound into the upper
teens to lower 20s...around 20 degrees below average.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

A weak wave within broad southwest upper flow will track across the
area on Sunday and spread light accumulating snow across much of the
region. Ascent will be weak with little in the way of mesoscale
forcing so snowfall rates and amounts will be light. Models continue
to shift the higher snowfall amounts slightly northward into far
northwest MO and into NE/IA, which makes sense since this is the
area which will have slightly better ascent in the vicinity of the
strong upper level jet max. Current thinking is that QPF amounts
across this area should run from 0.15" to 0.25", which
snow-to-liquid ratios around 15:1 would yield snowfall amounts
around 2-3 inches, possibly a bit higher near the IA border. Amounts
will taper off to around an inch to inch and a half near the
Missouri River and around a half inch across east central KS and
central/west central MO. Soundings also suggest the potential for
some light freezing drizzle particularly near and south of the
Missouri River where saturation may not reach up to the ice
nucleation temperatures aloft. Will wait another forecast cycle or
two before introducing any icing into the forecast since confidence
is not terribly high at this time.

Axis of this deep upper level trough which has been producing this
abnormally strong cold snap will track eastward across the area
Monday and Monday night. This will bring another round of frigid
temps Sunday night through Tuesday morning with lows in the single
digits and highs Monday only in the teens. Passage of the upper
trough axis to the east will allow surface winds to veer around from
the south by Tuesday and bring a slow warming trend to the area.
However, persistent northwest upper flow will maintain below-average
temperatures, and highs aren`t expected to break the freezing mark
until Thursday. This flow pattern will also maintain dry conditions
through at least Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

VFR conditions expected overnight and for much of Saturday. Winds
will gradually turn to the east in the afternoon as the surface high
moves through the area. A mid-level cloud deck will arrive Saturday
evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Dux