Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 172027
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
327 PM CDT Sun May 17 2015
Issued at 327 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015
Mainly quiet conditions are expected for the beginning of the work
week, as the upper trough responsible yesterday`s active weather
exits to the northeast and surface high pressure begins to build in.
The surface cold front associated with the system will finally push
through the region on Monday, veering winds to the north northwest
and ushering cooler, drier air into the forecast area. Highs Monday
are expected to range from the 60s to mid 70s depending on the time
of frontal passage, and will top out in the 60s to perhaps 70 for
Precipitation chances will return Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
shortwave trough pushes eastward across the central U.S., kicking a
surface low from the southern Plains out into southern Missouri.
Instability will be minimal at best, so expecting mainly showers
with perhaps an embedded thunderstorm as the system passes through.
Widespread cloud cover and the position of the forecast area north
of the surface low will spell cool temperatures for the region, so
have held Wednesday highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s throughout the
CWA. Another surface high will build in behind the system, keeping
cool air but drier conditions entrenched across the region for
Thursday and Thursday night.
A more spring-like pattern will begin to return by the weekend,
allowing temperatures to warm and moisture to increase. Storms will
become increasingly likely from Friday night onward, and could bring
the next potential for strong storms and/or heavy rain sometime next
weekend, depending on how the setup plays out.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015
Scattered cumulus will continue to work eastward across the region
this afternoon, impacting all TAF sites through the next several
hours. Bases should be generally between 3-4 kft, and their scattered
nature will keep conditions primarily VFR. Gusty southwest winds will
begin to diminish to around 5-6 kts around 00z, then a direction
shift to the northwest is expected by late Monday morning with speeds
increasing to 12 to 15 kts.