186
FXUS63 KEAX 260908
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
408 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible Thursday afternoon into the evening.
  The main threats will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

- Hot and humid conditions persist through the weekend with a
  few sporadic chances for storms. Additional thunderstorms and
  cooler temperatures possible early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Mid-upper level ridging in the southeast U.S. remains the dominant
weather feature resulting in hot and humid conditions across the
area. Highs for today are anticipated to range in the upper 80s to
low 90s. This afternoon into this evening, mid-upper level troughing
extending from western MN into southeastern NE, pushes a surface
front through the area providing sufficient lift for initiating
thunderstorms. Storms are anticipated to develop near northwest MO
this afternoon and move through the rest of the area through the
night. Good diurnal heating and humid conditions reflected in dew
points to the low 70s combined with CAPE values ranging from 2,500-
3,000 J/kg allude to decent instability and the potential for strong
updrafts. Weak bulk shear values (less than 20 kts) imply any storms
that do develop will likely be disorganized and short-lived. Given
this environment and DCAPE values ranging from 800-900 J/kg, a few
of the strongest storms could produce damaging to severe winds
gusts. The threat for severe hail is extremely low given the short,
disorganized nature of the storms not allowing time for significant
hail growth. The severe threat is expected to coincide with the
warmest times of the day as that is when instability is the highest.
If a stout H850 low-level jet develops later in the evening, the
severe threat could be prolonged as it increases low-level shear and
instability, however the LREF only has a ~20% chance of H850 winds
reaching 30 mph.

Potentially strong updrafts and PWATs exceeding 2 inches suggest the
potential for efficient rain producing storms. This could result in
brief, heavy downpours. Weak MBE velocity vectors suggest the
potential for slow storm motions and training storms raining over
the same areas. Some localized flooding is possible with additional
rainfall, especially in northern MO where areas have already
received significant rainfall amounts.

There is some uncertainty with the placement and timing of the
front. With the storms tied so closely to the surface boundary, if
the surface front is slower in its progression, flooding concerns
increase. However, according to a few of the CAMs, the front remains
progressive enough to limit flooding concerns. Thunderstorms are
expected to linger into Friday morning as the front stalls out south
of the HWY-36 corridor prompting additional storm chances Friday
evening.

Friday, a H5 shortwave moves through the flow. Depending on where
the previous day`s boundary stalls out, would determine where storms
form for tomorrow. A few of the high-resolution models suggest the
best chances remaining to the south of I-70. Uncertainty is still
fairly high with diverging solutions among models.

Hot and humid conditions persist through the weekend due to the
influence of the ridge in the southeast U.S. A few vort maxima move
through the flow on the northwestern periphery of the ridge possibly
providing some low-end chances for storms over the weekend. Heat
indices for this weekend stay in the 90s to low 100s. Storm chances
and likely cooler conditions return early next week with stout mid
to upper level troughing pushing a cold front through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Thunderstorms
are becoming more likely tomorrow late afternoon and evening.
Latest HREF shows a >70% for storms to move into the area from
the northwest between 23Z and the end of this forecast. Have
added a PROB30 group to all sites for the most likely time
frame for each site based on latest guidance. South winds of
5-10 mph expected overnight, increasing and veering slightly
tomorrow morning and afternoon. If a line of storms does affect
the area tomorrow, anticipate brief reductions and visibility
and ceilings along with brief gusty winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...CDB