Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 290534
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1134 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 249 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

Weak cold front is pushing into northeast and central Missouri this
afternoon with generally clear skies behind it. Could still see a few
showers or weak storms develop toward the Kirksville area where a
little bit of instability has developed. However, deep-layer shear is
extreme (near 100 kts) and will quickly shear apart any updraft that
tries to develop in this weakly unstable environment, so any storm
that develops should be very brief and isolated.

With winds staying more westerly behind the front, there won`t be
much of a push of cold air behind this front until Wednesday when
highs will drop into the mid 40s and lows in the upper 20s. However
even this "cooler" airmass is right around average for this time of
year. Zonal flow will keep this dry and seasonably cool weather
around through the end of the work week.

The next potential weather maker will take the form of a deepening
upper-level trough over the Southern Rockies this weekend. The ECMWF
has been a bit more aggressive taking this system out into the
Plains on Sunday, a solution that would provide the first measurable
snow for parts of the area if it verified. However, its ensemble mean
resembles more closely the less-progressive GFS which lingers the
upper low over northern Mexico. This GFS/ECMWF mean solution is
preferred for now and would result in only light precipitation
Saturday night. This solution would also lack any strong fetch of
cold air from the north so anything that falls this weekend would be
mostly rain.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

VFR conditions expected with light winds. There will be an increase
in high level cloudiness south of the MO River towards sunrise that
will last for most of the morning hours before clearing west to east.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...MJ



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