Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 181731
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Minor winter storm ongoing across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early Thursday morning. As of 3 am several reports of around 3 to 4
inches of snow have been received to the office, slightly higher
than previous forecast amounts. This increase in total snow is
likely due to a more convective nature of these snow showers, which
has led to fairly high snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour in some
locations. 06z NAM has hinted a slightly higher EPV values in the
saturated dendritic growth zone in and around the far western and
northwestern part of Missouri. Slightly higher than forecast low/mid
level frontogenesis has also played a role in the slightly higher
snow fall amounts. As the main mid level wave continues to eject
through the area, mid level lift will continue. This is apparent in
radar trends across far eastern Kansas, where another area of
moderate to heavy snow currently resides. Given that some parts of
western Missouri have already seen 3 to 4 inches it`s conceivable
with the batch of snow on the way that another 1 to 3 inches could
fall. Should any of those moderate to heavy snow showers coincide
with areas already in the 3 to 4 inch range they could ultimately
end up with 4-6 inches. These totals should be incredibly isolated
and limited in spatial domain, however. As a result of the increased
snow forecast, have expanded the winter weather advisory to
encompass virtually all of the CWA, save three counties in NE
Missouri.

This second batch of snow should clear the area by sunrise, leaving
off-and-on light snow through the mid morning before eventually
coming to an end this evening. There could be a period of light
freezing drizzle as the atmospheric column loses some of its deep
saturation. With a lack of appreciable lift the freezing drizzle
should be held to a minimum. Roads could still be slick, so safe and
slow driving is advised. Precipitation of all forms should clear the
area by this evening, leaving Thursday night and Friday dry.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the extended period of the forecast, there are several minor
disturbances to track and potentially one major system to keep an
eye on.

A weak trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest and spread light precipitation north of the forecast area
through Saturday night/Sunday. A deeper trough will fill in behind
this leading wave and bring a better chance for measurable
precipitation to much of the area Monday and Monday night. Thermal
profiles favor liquid precipitation through the day and much of the
night. But as cold air advects on the back side of the system, and
we remain within an area of cyclonically curved upper flow, we should
see some light snow move in early Tuesday morning or through the day
Tuesday. This trough is expected to move into the eastern Great
Lakes and southeastern Canada, but it will leave behind cold air.
This colder air should be in place for a system around or or just
after Christmas. In previous days, models were developing a potent
storm to the east of the area. Tonight`s suite of models have
unanimously shifted the storm to the west by several hundred miles.
So what looked like a miss for the local region has shifted to a
potential major system potentially affecting the area Thursday night
through Friday next week. The GFS has shifted to a favorable track
to bring snow to much of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
The ECMWF, while it has shifted west as well, is also a little
further north and brings the surface low over the the local area,
shifting its heavier snow northward. While there is still a lot time
between then an now, with it being so close to holiday it is
something that anybody who has to travel will have to monitor the
forecast closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR to MVFR ceilings/vis should transition to prevailing MVFR
conditions later this afternoon. Observations have gradually risen a
couple hundred feet over the past few hours across the region. The
back edge of light snow, flurries is nearing terminals currently,
and do not expect any additional precipitation impacting conditions.
Challenging forecast tonight with regards to IFR potential and
timing, persistence. Models are quite aggressive on lowering
ceilings, but not as aggressive on bringing down visibility.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>006-
     011>016-020>025-032-033-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Blair





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