Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 291803
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
103 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 358 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Very little change is noted with the weather pattern today, and as
such approaching the forecast from a persistence standpoint is a
decent starting point. Predictability of thunderstorm coverage
remains rather ambiguous as no notable upper waves or synoptic
boundaries are present. Highest coverage of thunderstorms will be
during the afternoon and evening hours during peak instability and
eroded convective inhibition within areas of preexisting outflow
boundaries and new outflow from ongoing thunderstorms. The
environment is also similar with modest deep layer shear and pockets
of moderate instability. The shear is slightly stronger across far
northern Missouri, colocated with the highest instability north of
Interstate 70. While organized, persistent convection will generally
not be supported, a couple strong storms cannot be ruled out,
especially along and north of Interstate 70. The main threat will be
brief downburst winds approaching 50-60 mph gusts. Additionally, the
most robust storms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall
within a short amount of time, therefore convection that manages to
form in clusters aided by colliding outflow boundaries will have a
localized flash flooding potential. With the loss of diurnal
instability, convection should gradually wane prior to midnight.
Temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s and lows in the
upper 60s to near 70.

The pattern undergoes some changes Tuesday into Wednesday. A large
upper trough will begin to dig into the northeast US, while energy
from a remnant cutoff low currently near the Four-Corners region
moves across the region. At the surface, a cold front will push
through the forecast area on Wednesday. These players will lead to a
notable increased chance for thunderstorms across the area Tuesday
through Wednesday. Similar environment will exist, with the threat of
a few strong storms and an increased potential for heavy rainfall
and localized flooding. Temperatures will be coolest on Thursday and
Friday as cooler and drier air advects into the area upon
northeasterly surface winds. Afternoon readings will generally
reside in the 70s with lows in the 50s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

VFR conditions will likely prevail at all the terminals over the next
24 hours, though there will be a threat of VCTS late this afternoon
and evening. Confidence is not high enough to warrant including a
TEMPO or FM group in the TAF sites at this time owing to the poor
predictability of today`s storms. Expect any stormy activity today
to fade this evening with the loss of day time heating, but will have
to watch for another round of storms later Tuesday.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Cutter


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