Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231712

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1212 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Issued at 324 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Very little has changed with expectations for the remainder of the
weekend and work week ahead. Outside of one weather maker Tuesday
night into Wednesday, little appreciable weather will be noted with
above normal temperatures continuing.

Temperatures this morning are starting warm, with readings roughly
10 degrees above our average lows. With a H85 thermal axis of +17C
aligning across the CWA by midday with mostly sunny skies, a very
pleasant fall day is expected with afternoon temperatures in the
lower to middle 70s. A surface cold front currently located over
southeast Nebraska is projected to move through the forecast area
during the afternoon hours, becoming stationary just south of the
CWA by Monday morning. No precipitation or even low clouds will be
noted with the passage of this feature. Slightly cooler temperatures
closer to normal levels are expected on Monday as high pressure
building over the western Great Lakes influences our weather.

The frontal boundary will lift back north of the area on Tuesday as
a warm front in response to pressure falls with an approaching upper
wave, returning warmth and moisture back into the region. With
increasing moisture advection and ascent, may see some scattered
convection during the daylight hours Tuesday over northern Missouri.
Otherwise, models continue to be consistent in bringing in the upper
wave and associated cold front into the Central Plains on Tuesday.
Chances still look good for precipitation across the area along and
ahead of the cold front as it slides through the CWA late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. The probability for strong storms
remains low for our area at this time. Lingering showers will end
from west to east during Wednesday afternoon, with all precipitation
ending before sunset. Dry weather follows in behind the front on
Wednesday, but temperatures will only slightly cooler thanks in part
to the Pacific maritime origin of the upper wave, with overall
readings still remaining above normal through the end of the week.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

A weak cold front is moving through the area currently but this will
only amount to a wind shift to the north over the next few hours.
Winds will remain light through the period but will gradually become
easterly by tomorrow morning. Otherwise, only high clouds are
expected to impact the area with VFR conditions expected through the
entire forecast.




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