Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 112120
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
320 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 320 PM CST MON DEC 11 2017

Strong winds and fire weather concerns remain the primary concern
through this afternoon, but should progressively improve as higher
humidity moves in from the north northwest. Stratus will continue
to spread across the region this evening before shifting off to
the east while also eroding from west to east, allowing skies to
clear for a chilly night in the 20s.

See-saw temperatures will continue through the forecast period as
a series of shortwave troughs pass through the central US.
Currently, the troughs are progged to pass through on Wednesday,
Thursday night, and Saturday night, all which will be mainly dry
and at most could be accompanied by a few sprinkles or flurries.
No major hazardous weather is anticipated in the forecast period,
but fire weather concerns will need to be evaluated with each
frontal passage due to very dry fuels and no significant precip
chances in the forecast period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST MON DEC 11 2017

Gusty northwest winds have begun at STJ and MCI, and will shortly
at MKC and IXD in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Gusts may
reach 35 to 40 kts this afternoon, and although these maximum
gusts will diminish a few kts this evening, strong winds will
continue into the overnight hours. Stratus currently edging into
far northern MO will impact all terminals but will remain lowest
and thickest to the east, therefore have kept all sites VFR with
cigs at or above 4 kft. The western edge of the stratus deck will
gradually scatter out as the bulk of the clouds move east, and
skies should clear prior to 06z.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Issued at 400 AM CST MON DEC 11 2017

Very high fire danger is expected today across much of the area.
First, fuels are very dry. Second, winds will shift to the
northwest late this morning and should be between 20-30 mph with
gusts reaching and exceeding 30-35 mph through tonight. The
strongest winds will be in northwest MO and northeast KS. Finally,
relative humidities should bottom out early this afternoon with
values 25% or less in southern MO and KS, near 30% in central
MO/KS, and in the 40s along the MO/IA border. These values should
gradually increase for the remainder of the afternoon and evening.

It is worth noting though that this system`s attendant cold front
is currently scheduled to move through the area late this morning,
with lower-end mid-level clouds moving in from the north in the
early afternoon. If the front and clouds move in quicker or
slower, the forecast may need to be altered as this would affect
high temperatures and relative humidities. Even if the timing does
change, fire weather will still be a concern with the strong
winds and very dry fuels. Therefore, outdoor burning is highly
discouraged today across the entire area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ001>006-011>015-
     023.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ028-029-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin
Fire Weather...Grana


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