Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 022048
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
348 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
Our beautiful run of fall conditions will persist through the
weekend with some warmer temperatures expected next work week.
Looking at water vapor imagery from this afternoon, the Nation is
dominated by a rather amplified pattern with 500mb height weakness
noted over the inter-mountain west and a cutoff low across the
southeast CONUS that is interacting with Hurricane Joaquin. This has
left a bit of a ridge languishing across the middle of the Nation
which has allowed some cool fall conditions to filter south across
the Central Plains over the later potion of the past work week.
In general, conditions wont change much through the weekend, with
most notable changes waiting till well into next work week as the
trough over the western CONUS shifts slowly east into the Plains
States. Conditions through the weekend will remain fairly steady
through Sunday with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Starting
Monday temperatures will begin to climb a little as southerly winds
return to the Plains as the western CONUS trough slowly deepens and
then moves east. This will help push readings for early next week
back up, with above normal temperatures likely from Tuesday on
through the rest of the work week.
Next chance for rain in the forecast looks to wait till late next
work week as the west CONUS trough slowly shifts into the Plains
States dragging up some moisture from the Gulf. Current model trends
have been slowing the arrival of the trough next week, with current
models runs pointing at rain sometime Thursday with temperatures
likely to drop back to or below normal as we move into next weekend.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
VFR conditions will dominate the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Surface winds will let up a little overnight, but generally remain
from the northeast. Otherwise, thoughts are the air mass is a bit too
dry for any fog concerns Saturday morning.