Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 191124
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 411 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

Today will start sunny, and it will be rather nice throughout the
day into the evening hours, but a trough starting to eject from the
Desert Southwest will spread a bit of moisture north today into
tonight kicking up the cloud cover across the region as well as
bringing us the remote possibility of rain late tonight. Models runs
have been trending the track of the ejecting Desert Southwest trough
further south over the past several runs, taking the focus for rain
late tonight and shifting it south. However, enough moisture looks to
move north to continue to justify spreading chance POPs north across
parts of the forecast area along and south of the Missouri River
early Friday morning. Still, in the wake of today`s ejecting trough
models continue to advertise a weak impulse or two following Friday
and Saturday, which some of the models advertise precipitation from.
Have kept the slight chance POPs lingering into Friday, but think the
any activity Saturday might have a hard time overcoming the dry
surface layer. It`s likely well just get some convective cloud cover
with a few sprinkles falling out at best, so have kept the forecast
dry over the weekend. Otherwise, for the tail end of the work week
and through the weekend expect temperatures to continue their upward
climb with highs around 80 by Sunday.

It looks like our next chance for widespread rain will likely wait
till Monday as another in a series of West CONUS troughs begins to
eject through the Plains. However, unlike this weeks previous storm
activity, which had us on the cool side of the ejecting troughs, we
will be on the warm side as the shortwaves are expected to track
northeast through the Central and Northern Plains. That should allow
for more thunderstorm activity along with the attendant threats of
heavy rain and a potential for severe weather that we did not have to
deal with much this past week. Current timing highlights activity
starting across the Plains to our west possibly as early as Sunday
night, though the better chance for stuff to reach our section of
eastern Kansas and western Missouri will be Monday into Monday night.
The outer periods of the forecast are also festooned with POPs,
though have kept them in the chance range as the general pattern next
week, after the Western CONUS trough starts ejecting, is really quit
messy, leaving confidence on which days will be rainy and which dry
after Monday night rather low. Lastly, expect temperatures to hang
out in the 70s Monday and Tuesday due to expected thunderstorms, but
if we don`t get any continuing cloud cover or more storms, we could
see highs climb back around 80 by mid-work week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

VFR conditions will dominate the daylight hours and likely the
overnight hours as well. Only issue might be some low to mid-level
clouds that might wander up this way from Texas late this afternoon
or evening. They might drag some light rain with them, but currently
expect CIGs to remain in the VFR range even if it does rain a
little. Otherwise, expect the wind to generally remain from the
southeast through today and tonight.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter



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