Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 180539
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1139 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 220 PM CST FRI NOV 17 2017

Moisture streaming north within a warm air advection regime
keeping clouds locked in, with a few areas of drizzle through the
rest of the afternoon and evening on Friday. Mid level flow is
quasi-zonal, with a slight SW flow orientation as an upstream
shortwave trough approaches the area. Through the day, there has
been a decent amount of mid level ridging, which is developing a
good amount of subsidence, as opposed to lift, and that has likely
stymied the production of any notable precipitation. Moisture
quality is also rather poor and shallow, with the saturated layer
only being a few thousand feet thick. As we go into tonight the
mid level trough will move into and through the area, which will
provide some mid level support for ascent, which may help produce
some organized rainfall. Forecast soundings also indicate some
very marginal elevated instability, which may bring about a few
rumbles of thunder. Accompanying the shortwave trough will be a
rather potent cold front, which will bring gusty winds upon its
passage. As the cold air filters into the area, the thermal
profile will get a little closer to favorable for some snow
production. Saturation through the dendritic growth zone will
create some dendrites, but the warm layer at the surface will
likely melt any crystals prior to reaching the surface. Should the
cold air advection be a little stronger (thus lowering temps a
little more than expected) or dynamic cooling takes place, then
there could be a mix of rain/snow across far northern Missouri
Saturday morning, through the day. No accumulation is expected
with this potential wintry mix on Saturday.

Winds overnight Friday night and into Saturday will be increasing
out of the northwest, with winds on Saturday likely reaching the
25 to 35 mph range, with some gusts perhaps eclipsing the 40 mph
mark. Forecast soundings indicate a very shallow mixed layer,
which will likely preclude deep enough mixing to get the 45+ mph
winds down to the surface. Wind Advisory criteria of 30 mph,
gusting to 45 mph may be achieved, if forecasts are under doing
the depth of mixing, so next shift will need to take a good look,
and revise the thinking regarding Wind Advisory. Dry air will also
accompany the colder air, which in combination with the gusty
winds will bring some concerning fire weather, as rapid fire
spread will be possible given these parameters. Outdoor burning
is discouraged on Saturday.

After the precipitation departs the area Saturday/Saturday
afternoon the pattern will take on a very benign character with
upstream ridging in the mid levels holding firm through the next 7
to 10 days. There could be a few embedded shortwave troughs within
the northwest flow regime, but lack of any usable moisture will
keep conditions dry for the foreseeable future. Temperatures near
normal will also persist through the rest of the week, with highs
in the 40s/50s and lows in the 20s/30s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST FRI NOV 17 2017

Moisture will continue to pool along and ahead of the cold front
which is now pushing through KSTJ and will arrive at the KC-area
terminals within the next few hours. This will result in patchy
fog and stratus ahead of the front, then thicker IFR stratus and
a few light rain showers in its wake. Winds will veer to the
north, then back just a few degrees to the northwest and increase
to 15 to 20 kts, with occasional gusts to 25 kts. Widespread light
to moderate rain will move in from the northwest around sunrise,
impacting all TAF sites between 12z and 18z Saturday. Afterward,
ceilings will scatter out and conditions will return to VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Laflin


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