Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 021133

633 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Issued at 338 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and storms have ended across the CWA this morning, leaving
mainly quiet conditions for much of today. Light fog and scattered
to broken low stratus will continue to filter along the back side of
last night`s precipitation, but should stay patchy in nature this
morning and will gradually dissipate around sunrise.

Temperatures this afternoon will be near to just a degree or two
below normal as northwest flow quickly flattens and surface winds
remain light and variable on the north side of yesterday`s cold
front. As lee side low pressure develops over the High Plains this
afternoon and turns low-level flow back around to the south, the
surface boundary will begin to retreat north and spread a chance of
storms this evening and overnight throughout the CWA. Strong-severe
storms are not expected with weak upper-level flow and no support
for convection other than the surface boundary and a weak LLJ during
the overnight hours, and storms should be scattered in nature. Storm
chances will continue to lift northeast as the boundary treks across
the CWA on Wednesday, before tapering off Wednesday evening. Highs
Wednesday will rise into the lower 90s on the south side of the
front and the upper 80s where frontal passage will occur later,
although precipitation could affect highs if it becomes widespread.
Highs on Thursday will be even warmer as southerly surface flow
increases and 850 hPa temps increase into the 22 to 24 C range,
likely resulting in highs in the lower to mid 90s CWA-wide.

The next chance of precipitation will begin Thursday night as low
pressure traveling along the Canadian border sends a cold front into
the forecast area. Frontal passage should occur slowly as the parent
low travels farther to the east, spreading storm chances through
Friday and possibly in Saturday morning. Much cooler temperatures
are expected this weekend behind the front, potentially resulting in
2 to 3 consecutive days with highs in the 70s Saturday through
Monday. Southerly flow will eventually return near the end of the
forecast period, bringing a return of seasonable temperatures and
low-end chances for storms.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

IFR to LIFR stratus and patchy dense fog will continue across the
area this morning, potentially impacting all TAF sites through 14z to
15z. Winds will remain light and variable and upper-level cloud cover
may continue to stream over for the next few hours preventing typical
diurnal mixing after sunrise, so may need to extend the period of
stratus and fog in the TAFs if no trend toward improvement is seen in
a few hours. Once stratus and fog mix out, mainly VFR conditions are
expected. A few thunderstorms may develop this evening or tonight,
but will be widely scattered and may not impact TAF sites.




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