Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 222345
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
545 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015
Issued at 301 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015
Stratocumulus deck has been very slow to clear the area this
afternoon, but gradual clearing will work in from the west early this
evening with 925 hPa height rises building in.
Return to southwesterly surface flow will allow temperatures to rise
into the mid/upper 40s on Friday and into the 50s on Saturday. A
clipper dropping into the Great Lakes will bring some precipitation
to that region on Sunday, some of which could make it as far southeast
as Kirksville/Macon along a trailing cold front. Temperatures both
at the surface and in the 925-850 hPa layer will be supportive of all
rain with any precipitation that falls across these areas. It`s
looking increasingly unlikely that precipitation can reach any
further west than the Bethany/Chillicothe areas.
Temperatures will briefly fall back into the 40s on Monday behind
Sunday`s system, then quickly return into the 50s for Tuesday through
Thursday. Could even see some 60s if the warmer ECMWF were to verify.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015
MVFR cigs look to continue for the next few hours at MCI and IXD
with STJ and MKC potentially also briefly teetering on the low-end
VFR/MVFR category but given trends at those two terminals, have
not included MVFR mention in this latest TAF issuance. The back
edge of this strato-cu deck is eroding and is currently over far
NW KS with obs on the backside reporting clear conditions.
Winds overnight will remain light to calm but as surface high
pressure loses its grip over the region, the pressure gradient
will tighten tomorrow with SW winds cruising above 10 knots at the
terminals, potentially gusting in the afternoon at times.
Otherwise, benign conditions will continue with just some cirrus
moving in overhead on Friday.