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000
FXUS63 KEAX 071739
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1139 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

There are two many concerns in the short term. The first will
revolve around the very cold temperatures this morning which will
continue through the day today. The second and perhaps larger
concern will be the snow beginning after midnight tonight and
continuing through the day on Sunday.

Early this morning, a H1044 surface high is building southeastward
into the area from the northern Plains. This has helped to clear
skies out overnight and lighten the winds causing temperatures to
plummet into the single digits. By daybreak, a few areas across
northwestern Missouri will drop below zero. With high pressure over
the area today, temperatures will not rebound much despite mostly
sunny conditions through the daylight hours. Highs will only achieve
the teens to right around 20. This will be 20 to 25 degrees below
normal for the date.

Tonight a shortwave will eject out ahead of a broad upper trough
across the Rockies. Cloud cover will be on the increase tonight out
ahead of this wave. The past few model runs continue to shift the
track of this wave further north allowing for higher snowfall
amounts near the Missouri/Iowa border and points north of the CWA.
Tonight, initially conditions will be very dry near the surface with
the departing high pressure shifting eastward. Model soundings show
that it make take time for the column to saturate across the area
and cause the onset of snow to be delayed until after midnight. The
bulk of the snow will fall Sunday morning as the upper wave moves
through the CWA. QPF with this system will be meager on the order of
0.05" to 0.20". However, snow to liquid ratios will be on the order
of 15:1 yielding a light fluffy snow. Areas along and south of the
I-70 corridor will see an inch or less with areas along and north of
the 36 highway corridor getting 1" to 2". Extreme northwest Missouri
has the potential to see up to 3" of snow and consequently was
considered for a winter weather advisory however, with accumulating
snow being gradual and light in nature as well some uncertainty on
exact track, have held off at this time. Otherwise, accumulating
snow should come to an end across the western CWA by the afternoon
Sunday and during the evening across the eastern CWA with few snow
showers possible Sunday evening before coming to an end Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

The upper pattern will become more of a northwest flow regime as
upper ridging builds over the eastern Pacific and the longwave
trough moves east. This pattern will keep the train of reinforcing
high pressure areas progressing into the Plains. Also, with the
track of any clipper system well to the north, limited forcing
within a dry air mass will keep the region dry. The constant flow of
Canadian high pressure systems will keep the area well below normal
for this time of year. However, with the ridge building into the
West through the middle of next week some modification of low to mid
level temperatures will occur. This should result in the area
getting out of the deep freeze and getting temperatures closer to
freezing or even into the mid 30s. Still well below normal but 10 to
15 degrees warmer than the last few days.

While there is still a huge amount of uncertainty from inconsistent
models, the GFS and the ECMWF do hint at another shortwave trough
moving into the southwestern states by next Saturday. This may lead
to some precipitation chances by the end of next week in the warm
advection area of the the upper trough. Outside of this chance for
the end of the forecast, dry weather is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Light snow expected to overspread much of the region early Sunday
morning with the heaviest falling near and north of the STJ-UIN
corridor (2-3" up that way, perhaps an inch for KC area). Leading edge
should reach the STJ-MCI corridor around 09Z. Snow rates will be
light, generally less than a half inch per hour, so impacts should be
minimal although IFR conditions do appear likely. Snow will be light
and fluffy so SE winds gusting to 15 kts could produce some minor
drifting snow concerns over runways.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Hawblitzel