Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 270947
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Early morning observations from the radar still shows scattered
light showers moving northeast across the region following on the
heels of a cold front that is sweeping east through Missouri early
this morning. It`s notable this morning as its not very often that
you see a temperature of 52 degrees at 2 AM in the morning in late
December. Cooler temperatures will continue to sweep in across
eastern Kansas and Missouri through the day today, making for a cold
start to the weekend. Do not expect much of a diurnal trend as a
result of the persistent cold air advection through the day
resulting in highs this afternoon in the 30s for most areas. As for
precipitation this morning, light showers continue to follow behind
the front, with a jet streak noted on water vapor imagery from
central Texas through the southeast corner of Kansas into western
Missouri. This streak might help induce enough continuing lift to
squeeze some more light precipitation out of the sky this morning.
Sounding thermodynamics continue to lean towards liquid
precipitation as it exits, but with snow and cold air just off to
the northwest felt the need to keep a mix of light rain or snow as
possible on the back side of the exiting system. However, there is
no expectation for any accumulating snow.

Cold temperatures will persist through the rest of the weekend and
the coming week into the New Year as the general pattern becomes
locally rather flat. Thus, as the cold Canadian air filters south
through the Plains there does not appear to be any significant
weather feature that will push warmer air back into the region. In
fact temperatures will get down right fridge for the middle of the
work week as a system rotating across Hudson Bay will help push a
1050mb high south along the front range of the Rockies starting late
this weekend. This places the arrival of still more cold air in our
region in the Tuesday to Wednesday periods of the work week.
However, given the strength of the surface high and speed with which
it advects in, thoughts are that if there is any low clouds around
frontogenic forcing along the leading edge could force some snow
flakes to fall from the sky Monday night. Do not expect any
significant accumulations owing to limited moisture and general lack
of a focusing feature beyond the potential frontogenic forcing.

Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain rather fridge Tuesday and
Wednesday as the surface high slides across the region. Of interest
for late next week will be the potential for a Thursday night
through Friday into Saturday as another system moves through the
Plains States. Have placed chance rain and snow POPs in those far
outer periods, but will concede that confidence is low as medium
range models are in a bit of disagreement. On the up side, given the
current timing of this late work week system, it shouldn`t mess up
your New Years Eve plans.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Ceilings have finally begun to lower towards low MVFR and upper IFR
range as light rain across eastern KS moves northeastward towards
KSTJ and KMCI. KMKC looks to stay on the edge of the heavier band
with just a quick light shower in the near term. Question is if
disjointed band of rain showers currently across northeast OK will be
able to hold up and move up into eastern KS over the next several
hours. Lower ceilings and a reduction of VISIBILITIES are expected
to move in behind this current rain band given upstream obs. IFR deck
will begin to scatter out by mid morning with MVFR deck looking to
scatter out by 20-21Z. Skies will clear as the upper level system
moves east and surface high pressure moves into the region.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM







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