Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 291751
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 308 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Despite moderate instability today, based on forecast soundings, a
lack of any kind of focus and just enough CINH should keep rain
chances at bay for most of the day. But convection should develop
during the afternoon over central to eastern Kansas and may drift
into extreme eastern Kansas and adjacent areas of Missouri. So will
maintain the slight chance for storms in this area for this
afternoon. Weak flow through the atmosphere combined with a lack of
any focus and modest CAPE suggest just air mass showers and storms if
anything develop and/or move into the area this afternoon. The
threat of anything severe as a result is very low.

This modest CAPE/ weak shear environment looks to persist through
the first half of the week and as a result will maintain a low
chance for showers and storms into Monday. By Tuesday and Wednesday,
a cold front will begin to slowly move through the area. Storms may
develop on a prefrontal trough/convergent area Tuesday over
northwestern Missouri so feel likely PoPs are warranted during the
afternoon hours. The actual cold front looks to split the area by
midday on Wednesday with potentially widespread showers and storms.
For both days, the threat of severe weather looks low due to the
weak shear.

A much drier air mass will move into the area behind the front for
the later half of the week and into the weekend. This will lead to
dry weather Thursday through Saturday. Through this time, a
deepening upper ridge over the western half of the country will put
the area into northwesterly flow. For now, it doesn`t appear that a
wave strong enough to wring out any precipitation will move through
until Saturday night or Sunday. And since moisture is limited those
chances look fairly low at this time.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VFR is likely to prevail throughout the TAF period as thunderstorm
chances look to largely remain outside of the terminal areas, off
toward the south and west. However, can`t rule out a stray shower or
thunderstorm popping up in the vicinity this afternoon into this
evening. Lack of confidence in a direct impact to terminals precludes
mention in the TAF. Will AMD as necessary.

Through tonight, winds will become more southerly, allowing for more
moisture to advect into the region tomorrow. Convective chances will
be on the increase tomorrow but those increasing chances largely fall
outside of this period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...lg



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